KUALA LUMPUR (March 8): Malaysia's palm oil stockpile may fall below the two million tonne mark as stocks will continue to be drawn down until May, according to Godrej International Ltd director and edible oil analyst Dorab Mistry.

The palm oil stockpile at the end of January expanded by 3.26% from the previous month to 2.27 million tonnes, as a surge in imports helped cushion a fall in production and exports, according to the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB).

For Indonesia, Mistry said the country's palm oil stock is expected to remain tight, given the country's biodiesel B35 mandate.

Mistry cautioned that Malaysia may miss its annual palm production target of 19 million tonne this year, noting the "weather is going to be the biggest factor" that could affect production.

"Because when an El Nino starts, it can hit a very broad geographical range from Pakistan to Australia, (and) that [will have] a profound effect on production of agricultural commodities.

"So I am not subscribing to any quantity forecast of Malaysia [palm] production," he said, adding he did not think that the "optimistic projections of 19 million tonnes" would be realised.