This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily on February 3, 2020

It is the start of a new zodiac cycle in the Chinese calendar, and there is hope for fresh chances and rebirths emerging from the Year of the Metal Rat (Geng Zi).

Whether it is pure superstition or not, many turn to the Chinese horoscope signs and their reputed attributes as an alternative account to seek indications in their dos and don’ts in the year to come.

An ancient fable told of the Jade Emperor’s great animal race saw the Rat clinching the first place by secretly jumping on the kind Ox’s back as it crossed the swift current towards the Emperor’s palace. It jumped off the Ox at the finish line and won the race, thus earning the Rat a reputation for being quick-witted, resourceful, thrifty, and a great survivor in times of danger and adversity.

So, what does the year of the small beady-eyed, pointy-nose nocturnal rodent, which runs from Jan 25, 2020 to Feb 11, 2021, have in store for us?

The story illustrates the year ahead as one where opportunities appear to be abundant but there should be little complacency. Rats may be constantly hard at work, but the intelligent creature with an incredible sense of smell would always plan the work, and work the plan to its advantage.

This is why Rat years favour strategies that are well laid out. While it seems that the auspicious stars have aligned, bringing good fortune and help from the heavens, investors are cautioned against being blindly led into short-term trading this year as opportunities for quick profits may not be as bountiful as were in the Year of the Boar. Masters say returns may not be yielded quickly, but opportunities may grow as the momentum builds in the new zodiac cycle.

With no crystal balls to gaze into the future, the writers have put together some data culled from the past 36 years and lined them up according to their corresponding zodiac animal years to check out how the Rats wriggled their way forward. Perhaps, the data can give an idea of what this Metal Rat will be about.

Which zodiac grew the fastest between 2008 and 2019?

The previous year of the Earth Rat was a memorable year for investors as that was the year when the global financial crisis took place. Of course, while the full year was in fact better than the year of the Earth Ox, the economies had started to experience some pressure then, especially in the US — which recorded a -1.5% gross domestic product (GDP) growth. The GDP growth for the world in 2008 was the second worst at 3% over the past 12 years. Looking at only Malaysia’s economic growth over the past 12 years, its GDP growth of 4.7% in 2008 was placed in the middle of the pack of its historical trend.

How did currencies perform against the US dollar in the past Rat years?

This year, many of the foreign exchange analysts are expecting the ringgit to perform stronger compared with last year, with estimates of 4.0 to 4.1 against the US dollar in anticipation of a weaker greenback, but let us look back at how the ringgit and other currencies performed in the two previous years of the Rat. In the year of the Earth Rat, the ringgit, albeit seeing a 10.89% depreciation, was still stronger than other currencies. The yen, however, proved to be one of the safe havens that year. Flashback to another zodiac cycle before that, the ringgit had performed the best against the greenback with a 2.23% gain. In comparison, the yen saw a decline of 15.96%.

Past zodiac cycles’ performances

We all know that the global financial crisis came in like a perfect storm in 2008 and caused a sea of red. That year of the Earth Rat saw all equity indices falling by solid double-digits, ranging from 33.36% (South Korea’s Kospi) to 55.67% (China’s Shanghai Composite index). The FBM KLCI, which plunged some 37.99% that year, was still considered to have performed better than its regional peers.

Famous personalities born in the Year of the Rat

George Washington, first US president (1732)
Richard Nixon, 37th US president (1913)
George HW Bush, 41st US president (1924)
William Shakespeare, English poet (1564)
Galileo Galilei, Italian astronomer (1564)
Mark Zuckerberg, Facebook CEO (1984)
Lim Guan Eng, Malaysia’s finance minister (1960)
Tony Pua, member of Parliament (Damansara) (1972)
Tun Samy Vellu, former MIC president (1936)

In the constructive cycle of the five basic elements, the earth element strengthens or produces metal and in turn, metal brings grounding, protection, and stability. As long as it is not in direct conflict with fire, introducing earth elements to your portfolio should bode well for the Yang Metal Rat, which is also associated with water.

Your portfolio in the Rat year could use some added help from sectors that are related to real estate, infrastructure, building materials, landfill, renovation, warehousing, antiques, and stone masonry, or any industry that involves earth, soil, land, or rock such as car park and mining.

It does appear that this lucky element could meet with results this year given the ramp-up in earth-related activities in Malaysia, especially in infrastructure, building, and warehousing. But not all projects will share an affinity relationship with the elemental power so harness your good fortune luck with clear goals and a tactical approach.

While sectors with wood elements are not seen to have a great year in 2020, it is nevertheless considered a good element by some feng shui masters/experts.

Indeed, the metal feng shui element is usually seen to clash with the wood element. But, the situation is not bad if we look from a standpoint where metal comes from the earth and that produces water, which is fundamental for the wood element, enabling these two elements to co-exist.

Sectors identified to have a relatively good year are construction, renewables, education, healthcare and consumer. Professions related to creativity such as novelist, writer, journalist, publisher, carpentry, botanist, florist, plantation, and many others also appear to do well this year.

Thus, with it being the Year of the Rat, perhaps you could try strategising your investment portfolio as wily as a rat. Then perhaps it would be a level playing field for the wood-related sectors too.