This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on April 26, 2021 - May 2, 2021
After the recent “Asian Davos” — the Boao Forum Asia annual conference in China’s Hainan Province — attention is now on the Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ (Asean) special summit on April 24 in Jakarta to discuss Myanmar, where an elected government was replaced by a military coup in February.
Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin — who in a statement dated March 19 said Malaysia was “gravely concerned over the tragic situation in Myanmar since the military coup” — has called for the prompt and unconditional release of political leaders detained since Feb 1 and urged all parties to work together towards a peaceful settlement of the crisis that has claimed the lives of many unarmed civilians. Muhyiddin is among the heads of states attending the emergency summit of the 10-member regional body, whose role has come under international scrutiny following the coup.
Apart from the host, Indonesia’s Joko Widodo, leaders of Singapore, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia and Brunei have also reportedly confirmed attendance at the emergency summit. Thai Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha and Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte will be represented by Thai Foreign Minister Don Pramudwinai and Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Teodoro Locsin Jr respectively. Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, who faces international sanctions for his role in the military coup in Myanmar, will also be present at the summit — Asean has drawn flak for inviting him, as some human rights activists deem the junta illegitimate while others see the invite as a practical step towards ending the violence.
All eyes will also be on Hollywood at the 93rd Academy Awards, or 2021 Oscar awards ceremony, on Sunday (April 25) in Los Angeles — from 6.30am (red carpet) and 8am (main event) on Monday morning (April 26) in Kuala Lumpur. South Korea, which last year saw the film Parasite make history as the first non-English language film to win Best Picture, has the film Minari in the running this year with six nominations. Media analysts will be looking at the reception numbers for the broadcast of the event that is being held later than usual, owing to the pandemic.
The market will also be watching out for the economic package from the White House that is said to be worth more than US$1 trillion (RM4.1 trillion) and could be announced on Wednesday (April 28), when US President Joe Biden addresses a joint session of Congress for the first time since assuming office. The following day, the US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to keep rates unchanged and reiterate its message of not withdrawing support just yet.
The Bank of Japan is scheduled to release its monetary policy decision on Tuesday (April 27). First-quarter GDP readings will be out for South Korea on April 27, for the US on April 29, and for Taiwan, France, Germany and the eurozone on April 30.
Other key economic data releases this week include China’s manufacturing and non-manufacturing survey data for April (April 30) as well as March trade data for Hong Kong (April 27), Malaysia (April 28), New Zealand (April 29) and Thailand (April 30). Vietnam and South Korea, meanwhile, will release their trade data for April. It was between March 23 and 29 that the 400m vessel Ever Given ran aground at the Suez Canal, blocking traffic at the critical waterway and disrupting global supply chains.
Malaysia’s exports data for March will be of interest, given the surprise 17.6% year-on-year expansion in February compared with 6.6% in January. Trade surplus jumped 41.6% y-o-y to RM17.6 billion in February, up from the 38% y-o-y gain to RM16.6 billion in January.
The focus will also be on Covid-19 infection trends, to assess its threat on economic recovery in the region and globally — there are more countries reporting an increase in cases than a decrease in numbers despite vaccination programmes underway.
Last Thursday (April 22), India reported close to 315,000 new Covid-19 infections — the world’s largest single-day rise in cases. That day, Singapore and Hong Kong again delayed a long-planned air travel bubble between the two major financial hubs, yet another sign of the arduous road to recovery even for cities that have handled the pandemic relatively well.
Malaysia, which last Friday (April 23) recorded nine straight days of more than 2,000 daily new Covid-19 infections, needs to shore up vaccination registrations and keep vigilance high to prevent another round of wider movement restrictions — barely one month after all businesses were allowed to reopen and the 30% cap for office workers was lifted on April 1.
Some parties have called for tighter standard operating procedures (SOPs) at Ramadan bazaars, which were cancelled last year but are currently allowed in most states this year. Kelantan, which is seeing an increase in Covid-19 cases, however, announced on April 11 that bazaars would not be allowed to operate. Kelantan is also not allowing tarawih prayers.
Last Thursday (April 22), Health Ministry director-general Tan Sri Noor Hisham Abdullah said Malaysia’s daily Covid-19 cases may reach the 5,000-levels seen in late January or higher if the reproduction number for infections (R-naught) remains elevated and compliance with SOPs is weak.
Strict compliance with SOPs could matter even more during the coming two holiday-shortened weeks — the first to observe Nuzul Al’Quran on Thursday (April 29) and the second to replace Labour Day, which falls on Saturday (May 1). Over in China, the Labour Day holiday week — one of three “golden weeks” on the mainland to increase domestic travel and encourage spending — is from May 1 to 5.
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