This article first appeared in Forum, The Edge Malaysia Weekly on April 20, 2020 - April 26, 2020

The Covid-19 pandemic is arguably the most disruptive global event in recent times. It is unprecedented in its scale and potential impact on the economy and quality of life. We do not know the full extent of this pandemic and how badly the world will be affected, but the likelihood is that this is the defining crisis of our time. By all accounts, it looks highly probable that the pandemic and its direct consequences will be with us for a while, possibly for another 12 to 18 months, and its social, cultural and economic impact will be felt many years after.

The movement control orders (MCOs) currently in force in many countries around the world are designed principally to reduce the rate of community transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes the Covid-19 disease, and to “flatten the curve” so that the health system is not overwhelmed. Lockdown is necessary to limit the spread of the virus and to save lives, but for many countries, it is not feasible or practical to prolong it indefinitely. An overarching strategy that considers the immediate, intermediate and long-term implications needs to be developed. Moreover, it must be created now, with limited data, and be designed in such a way that it can respond to new information as it arises.

Covid-19 can eventually be suppressed, but it will take a marathon effort that brings together all of society and government. The main issue we face is uncertainty and a lack of information. While testing is by far the best tool we have at hand, tests can take several days for results, meaning that published information is not a complete real-time picture. In addition, there are undoubtedly undetected, mildly symptomatic and asymptomatic cases in the community. Widespread testing is therefore paramount for guiding decision makers, not only for containment but to understand the extent of community transmission. The lockdown allows governments to buy time, do the calculus and build capacity, especially in terms of the healthcare system, so that it can absorb shocks.

Once we have a more complete understanding of the extent, rate of infection and concentration of cases, we can turn to lifting the lockdown gradually, and possibly, staggered geographically. A traffic light-like approach may then be deployed, with different levels of physical distancing, but it must be backed by testing, tracking and treatment, and investment in ongoing medical research. A system with protocols needs to be put in place, including what data it responds to, acceptable thresholds and the social and economic consequences of disruption.

To face this challenge, unified public health strategies should be implemented so that risks can be managed and, with a degree of regularity, brought into everyday life. But a unified public health strategy will work only if it involves all levels of society. While it should be driven by government institutions and informed by new evidence as it emerges, the strategy must empower local organisations, businesses and community groups and be flexible enough to be adjusted based on their lived experiences. Inbuilt flex is required so that strategies can be recalibrated from time to time.

The need for redundancy in the health system is also essential in managing risks associated with future outbreaks. This intervention of living with Covid-19 may have to continue until a vaccine is discovered and widely available, people develop immunity to the virus (more than 60% of the population), or the virus runs its course and disappears. At this point, there are too many unknowns, including the long-term negative health impact of having Covid-19, so we need to err on the side of caution and use the most up-to-date scientific data to inform our decisions. This means limiting the probability that anyone who is infected will infect others. If he or she infects more than one person, the virus spreads. If it is less than one, it dissipates. So, keeping the average reproduction rate of the virus (R0) below one is key.

Aside from the average R0 being brought to below one, we need to learn to live with Covid-19 through behavioural changes in everyday life — how we live, how we meet and how we organise and manage everyday affairs. Some level of social distancing, moving around with masks, hand-washing, spaced-out seating, public transport limitations and anticipation of movement control are crucial if there are outbreaks. We need new protocols for business, restaurants and educational institutes to manage the risk. We will need to adapt to the new circumstances and regulations that we are faced with for the immediate future. But we also need to keep an eye on the future and how these disruptions are changing the very fabric of society and our cultural norms.

The new norm

Never has the world faced a global pandemic such as this before. It is different from previous crises, as we are now dealing with health, economic, financial and social crises simultaneously at national and global levels, each reinforcing one another through feedback loops. It has shocked the global economy into a state of hyper-uncertainty and instability. Advanced economies are already facing shocks, with ripple effects around the world and worse effects in less developed countries, especially those endowed with poorer health infrastructures and dependency on the global economy as producers and suppliers. Whole regions may be economically isolated, unwinding decades of progress to address poverty.

While the impact will be lumpy globally, with different prospects for Europe, the Americas, Middle East and Africa, Asia-Pacific may prove to be a beacon of hope, with its combination of culture, organisational systems and governance traditions that could allow it to weather the storm. These countries will need, however, to move away from dependency on global supply and demand to a more regional focus. They, too, will need to look within and redefine economic structures and the social values that support them, and they, too, will need to look to national self-sufficiency in areas such as food production, empowerment of local communities and local economic development as a central stimulus recovery strategy.

The Covid-19 crisis is going to redefine our lives, our economy and our future. We are in the early phase of a protracted slowdown and there is discussion in the international media about the possibility of global depression. The challenge is managing the economic shock and slowdown, which is likely to result in large-scale job losses and closure of businesses globally. This will take time to recover from. We need to be thrifty and manage our affairs carefully to go through these trying times. Extraordinary effort is required from leaders across all parts of society, none of whom will be spared, personally or spiritually.

Managing recession

As a result of the health emergency, there is a collapse in global aggregate demand. In the short term, many households and businesses are likely to run out of money, with little to no cash reserves as a common factor. The private sector and overextended households will soon default on their debt obligations. This is compounded further by MCOs, which have created breakdowns in global supply chains. We now have to face and live through an unprecedented economic recession, arising from measures to mitigate the global pandemic.

As a result of the economic shock due to the control orders, governments are stepping in to protect the collapse of businesses and safeguard as many jobs as possible. Those most vulnerable include the tourism and hospitality industries, small and medium enterprises, households with low savings, migrant workers and informal businesses. These groups require specific and targeted strategies.

As part of an immediate response, we also need resources to manage the social and psychological fallout. An approach integrating counselling, out-of-the-box thinking and the relief of pressure points must be applied to ensure that social order is maintained. The key is to minimise the economic “scar tissue” by making sure people have enough money for the basics — reducing job losses and bankruptcies, and providing incentives for industries of the future (especially those involved in food production, health and the digital economy).

We need to plan ahead but be adaptive to change on a weekly basis as the crisis unfolds, shifting from broad macro strategy towards micro or targeted intervention. We may need to turn to hyperlocalism as a founding principle and overall strategy that seeks to activate local economies through unusual types of stimulus. Agility and pragmatism in our responses to changing circumstances, varying strategies or interventions as new information unfolds, acknowledging errors and crowdsourcing solutions are imperative.

Living with pandemia and beyond

Given that the pandemic is global in nature, we are not going to come out of this alone. There is a need for a global effort to coordinate an international public health strategy and economic policy, and to stimulate aggregate demand to pre-crisis levels. The World Health Organization should consider working hand in hand with the World Bank and other economic institutions to devise policy instruments that can be rolled out with regional nuances to allow society to function with minimal risk of outbreaks and burdened health systems.

Think tanks and businesses also need to re-gear and innovate solutions for society to cope with uncertainty. Discussions on the types of industries and economies best suited to carving a more prosperous future for humanity, and those that are not, must take place.

The world is unlikely to be the same. The process of deglobalisation will intensify, with supply chains likely to be reshaped. The traditional export-led growth model, fuelled by foreign direct investments, may not be able to provide jobs and are likely to be affected by local policy restrictions. The technological transformation with Industry 4.0 will be accelerated and remove jobs.

With the climate crisis likely to exacerbate the situation, we need to rethink growth and development as it has been thus far. We need to consume less, waste less and produce only what is required. There is a need to balance the returns to factors of production and ensure that there is fair distribution to achieve social justice or to intensify the inequality that breaks down societies. We need to encourage small businesses and local economic development to ensure stability in their home countries.

In short, an entirely new social and economic development approach will have to emerge if we are to live in the age of pandemia and still prosper. This may be the first major pandemic for modern society, but it will not be the last. We should all be thinking about and having conversations around the type of future we want — not just for ourselves and our children, but for our friends, neighbours and fellow humans.

More importantly, we need to have this conversation today, even as we manage the complexity of the first wave and its fallout. Pandemics have historically proven to be major turning points for societies and civilisations. The shape our societies will take is determined not by the disease itself but how we react to it, manage it and talk about it.

Hamdan Abdul Majeed, a former investment banker, is the managing director of Think City Sdn Bhd, a social-purpose organisation dedicated to making cities people-friendly and resilient by being a catalyst for change in the way cities are planned, curated, developed and celebrated. Through various public and private roles, Hamdan has been actively involved in shaping urban policy and plans in Malaysia for the last 15 years. 

Dr Matt Benson is an Australian geographer specialising in complex systems and human settlements. 

He is a Penang-based programme director of Think City.

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