This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on November 14, 2022 - November 20, 2022

AFTER overwhelming performances in the Johor and Melaka state elections several months ago, the Umno-led Barisan Nasional (BN) was brimming with so much confidence that it pressured its own prime minister, Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob, to call for a general election (GE15) — despite the upcoming monsoon season and objections by its government partners, Bersatu and PAS.

One week into the official campaign period after nomination day on Nov 5, the situation seems to have changed, according to various political sources.

The mood on the ground for BN is said to be not as “meriah” (festive) as in previous elections. An Umno official says: “There is no money on the ground, there is no mineral water (for the machinery workers and attendees of the ceramah) even.”

That may be a bit of an exaggeration but the point he was making was clear. The election machinery on the ground has not been adequately oiled.

The blue BN flags are overshadowed by the red Pakatan Harapan (PH) ones in many constituencies, in size and numbers.

Some Umno grassroots members The Edge spoke to were concerned that the Umno top brass were not making funds available, and did not even go on the ground. One of them says that from what he understands, the corporates and other donors have contributed funds, albeit less this time around because of the damp economic climate.

“Everyone seems to be confining themselves to their own foxholes,” says one political observer.

Liew Chin Tong of the DAP had at end-­October indicated that Umno did not have its usual war chest. Liew said on social media, “During the 2013 and 2018 general elections, Umno was essentially oiled by (Datuk Seri) Najib (Razak)’s money, which he siphoned off from 1Malaysia Development Bhd.

“Since Najib is in jail and faces massive fines while (Umno president Datuk Seri Ahmad) Zahid (Hamidi) doesn’t have that much cash for GE15, the party is facing financial problems now. I suspect even if Ismail Sabri’s faction may have some funds, with no guarantee of (his) becoming PM again, they are unlikely to spend much,” he said.

So, the question is, can Umno and its key partners MCA and MIC fare well in GE15, sans the usual war chest?

Another issue is that many of the big names in Umno have been dropped because of party infighting.

Arau member of parliament Datuk Seri Shahidan Kassim, Ketereh MP Tan Sri Annuar Musa, former Tanjong Karang MP Tan Sri Noh Omar and former Pasir Salak MP Datuk Seri Tajuddin Abdul Rahman were dropped.

While there is always a need for new blood, some within the party say they were dropped by party president Zahid as they are aligned with Ismail Sabri.

Many of the candidates who were dropped are Umno warlords with deep pockets, having been involved in politics for decades.

Some of the candidates, such as Shahidan, Datuk Zahidi Zainul Abidin, who was deputy minister of communications and multimedia, Datuk Seri Ismail Abd Muttalib, former deputy minister of housing and local government, and senator Datuk Azhar Ahmad were sacked from Umno for seeking to contest under other party banners.

Outspoken politician Datuk Seri Mohamed Nazri Abdul Aziz, who is a six-term Padang Rengas MP, has opted out of contesting in GE15.

All these expulsions and departures have weakened Umno.

In past elections, the stock market was used to raise funds as well, with shares of companies linked to Umno and BN soaring. With the benchmark FBM KLCI hitting a two-year low of 1,373.36 points on Oct 13, just after the dissolution of parliament, the market has been lacklustre.

Also, the ringgit hit 4.73 against the greenback last week, compared with 4.17 at the start of the year.

Against this backdrop, corporates have been hesitant to donate to Umno and BN.

The infighting within Umno is also an issue. Other than the expulsions, Zahid is seen to be trying to finish off Khairy Jamaluddin, one of the party’s rising stars and one of its more prominent and capable ministers, by fielding him in the opposition stronghold of Sungai Buloh. This too has not gone down well with many.

While the opposition PH, especially PKR and DAP, have also dropped some incumbent MPs, their supporters seem to have moved on and the damage has not been as bad as that in Umno.

It also does not help that Zahid’s speech as BN chair at an MIC delegate assembly recently has gone viral. At the meeting in October, Zahid had said that BN’s top brass could face criminal prosecution if they lost in GE15, and as such needed to secure a “dominant victory” to avoid such a fate.

“This election is the mother of all general elections. If we fail, our fate will be worse than the last election … To avoid this, we have to secure a dominant victory,” he said.

Zahid is facing 35 money laundering and criminal breach of trust charges involving millions of ringgit from Yayasan Akalbudi and for allegedly accepting bribes for various projects during his tenure as the home minister.

In September, he was acquitted in one case but another is still ongoing.

Political observers say that if Umno’s GE15 campaign is not gaining traction, who will the traditional BN/Umno voters go for? PH, or Perikatan Nasional (PN), which is made up of PAS, Bersatu and Gerakan?

Both PH and PN are claiming to be ahead of each other in getting the support of disgruntled BN/Umno supporters. The likely outcome is they will share the spoils. This could well mean that in the contest for the 166 parliamentary seats in Peninsular Malaysia, no one coalition — whether BN, PH or PN — will win the solid 80 to 90 seats that will make them the obvious anchor party to form a government.

Watching the brouhaha in Peninsular Malaysia is Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS), made up of Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu, Parti Rakyat Sarawak, Parti Demokratik Progresif and the Sarawak United People’s Party.

GPS won a landslide victory in the state elections last year, securing 76 out of 82 state seats. GPS chairman and Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu president, Tan Sri Abang Johari Openg, recently denied speculation that GPS and BN already have a pact to form the government after GE15.

But he has made known his disdain for PH, saying in its 22 months in power, the coalition had failed to fulfil its promises to the people.

“So to all Sarawakians, let’s not allow the ‘pisang berbuah dua kali’ (don’t let history repeat itself),” he said when announcing GPS’ candidates for GE15.

GPS, which was formed after the Sarawak parties left BN after GE14, won 19 parliamentary seats in 2018. It is confident of winning 25 parliamentary seats out of the 31 seats in Sarawak in GE15.

With a week left to polling, it is hard to predict which coalition will emerge as the winner. There is still time for fence-sitters to make up their minds, and the “sombre” situation on the ground for BN/Umno could still change in the time leading up to Nov 19.

If it doesn’t, then GE15 could produce a surprise as big as GE14.

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