Pavilion Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT)
(June 24, RM1.53)
Upgrade to buy with a higher target price of RM1.80: We expect Pavilion REIT (PavREIT) to see a rerating driven by more certainty of the Pavilion Extension (Extension) asset-injection plan (worth approximately RM806 million) in early 2017. Our preliminary assessment values the Extension at 32 sen per share, based on a dividend discount model methodology. We revise up our 2017 estimate (E) net profit by 4.5% to account for the Extension’s nine-month contribution.

Our upgrade on PavREIT is driven by our higher conviction on two counts. Firstly, the sustainability of PavREIT’s existing tenancies and secondly, the yield-accretion from management’s potential move to gear up on the financing of the acquisition of Extension. As a result, PavREIT’s 2016E to 2017E yield should improve from 5.5% to 5.6% levels before our upgrade to 6.4% to 6.6% post our upgrade, above the Malaysian REITs peer average of 6.1% to 6.2%. Notwithstanding the general threat on retail malls, that is outlet closure of less popular brands, Pavilion Mall continues to survive due to its positioning in the upper and upper middle class categories and it being a lifestyle mall.

At a potential injection price of RM3,226 psf (totalling RM806 million), the Extension is expected to further enhance Pavilion Mall’s net property income yield from 9.5% to about 10%, based on the assumption that the Extension will be able to fetch a higher average rental rate of RM27 psf versus the Pavilion Mall’s rental rate of RM22 psf currently. — AffinHwang Capital, June 23

This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, on June 24, 2015.