This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily on April 21, 2020

Oil plunged the most on record to below US$12 (RM52.56) a barrel in New York as a historic demand slump fills inventories to the brim.

Futures fell as much as 40%. While the collapse reflects the most immediate May contract expiring today, it nonetheless highlights a fast-growing glut of oil, and rapidly expanding stockpiles at the American hub at Cushing, Oklahoma. Opec+’s record production cuts from next month are paling in the face of this evaporating demand.

The upcoming May contract’s expiry means traders are shifting their positions to June as they try to avoid taking deliveries of cargoes because of the lack of space to store them. That has opened up an unprecedented discount of more than US$10 between the two nearest contracts.

May WTI has fallen far lower than June ahead of expiry

There are signs of weakness everywhere. Buyers in Texas are offering as little as US$2 a barrel for some oil streams, raising the possibility that producers may soon have to pay to have crude taken off their hands. China reported its first economic contraction in decades last Friday, an indication of what is to come in other major economies that have yet to emerge from coronavirus-driven lockdowns.

“There is no limit to the downside to prices when inventories and pipelines are full,” commodities hedge fund manager Pierre Andurand said on Twitter. “Negative prices are possible.”

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for May plummeted as much as 40%, the most since futures began trading in 1983, and was 35% lower at US$11.95 a barrel as of 1.13pm in London. The June contract declined 11% to US$22.37. Brent for June fell 5.7% to US$26.48 a barrel.

Crude stockpiles at Cushing — the key US storage hub —  have jumped 48% to almost 55 million barrels since the end of February. The hub had working storage capacity of 76 million as of Sept 30, according to the Energy Information Administration.

Despite the weakness in headline prices, retail investors are plowing money back into oil futures. The US Oil Fund ETF saw a record US$552 million come in last Friday, taking total inflows last week to US$1.6 billion. The fund has said it would move some of its WTI holdings into the July contract, citing regulatory and market conditions.

The price collapse is reverberating across the oil industry. Crude explorers shut down 13% of the American drilling fleet last week. While that could cut production, with companies crimping their spending, it may not be enough.

“US shut-ins are gaining pace, but not fast enough to avoid storage filling to max,” said Paul Horsnell, head of commodities at Standard Chartered. — Bloomberg