MoH predicts daily Covid-19 cases to exceed 8,000 by first week of June if SOPs not followed

Photo by Zahid Izzani Mohd Said/The Edge

Photo by Zahid Izzani Mohd Said/The Edge

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KUALA LUMPUR (May 14): The Ministry of Health (MoH) has predicted that daily Covid-19 cases could exceed 8,000 by June if standard operating procedures (SOPs) to prevent the spread of the coronavirus are not adhered to.

This comes as the R0 (pronounced R-naught) figure rose to 1.14 yesterday, according to a tweet by Health director-general Tan Sri Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah, after Malaysia reported its fourth-highest number of daily Covid-19 at 4,855.

The R0 figure denotes how many other people a Covid-19 patient will infect. A R0 figure of below 1.0 shows that a patient will infect fewer than one person, which means that the spread of the infection will decline over time.

The ministry calculated that the R0 could go up to 1.2 if SOPs are not followed; however, strict compliance with SOPs could bring the R0 down to 0.8, pushing new daily cases to far below 1,000 by the first week of June.

Perak has the highest infectivity rate with 1.32, followed by Terengganu with 1.29, Kedah (1.22), Penang (1.21), Melaka (1.18), Johor and Selangor (1.17), Negeri Sembilan (1.12), Pahang (1.11), and Kuala Lumpur (1.1).

The states with R0 below 1 are Sabah (0.89), Kelantan (0.94), Sarawak (0.98), and Putrajaya (0.99). Labuan does not have R0 as only four cases were reported yesterday, bringing active cases to 35.