This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on January 25, 2021 - January 31, 2021

THE current high gas price in the spot market means that Malaysian manufacturers that pay a regulated price set by the Energy Commission (EC) are now enjoying a much lower gas price than their international counterparts.

However, the current high gas price level is not expected to be sustained for long, as the extremely cold weather in the northern hemisphere has started to subside, which means less gas will be needed for heating. Lower demand for heating will translate into higher stockpile among northern countries.

According to S&P Global Platts, the futures price for LNG Japan/Korea Marker (JKM) for March 2021 delivery has been increasing since Nov 19, 2020, when it was trading at US$5.815 per million British thermal unit, to US$19.695 per mmBtu on Jan 11.

The marker has since fallen, however, to US$18.31 per mmBtu since Jan 15. In contrast, Malaysian industries are paying a fixed price of RM22.14 per mmBtu for the first quarter of the year, or just US$5.535 per mmBtu.

The futures price is declining, according to S&P Global Platts’ JKM. The contract for delivery in April 2021 was trading at US$6.85 per mmBtu on Jan 21.

EC will set a base price for the quarter, with Gas Malaysia Bhd proposing the transport tariff, the legacy gas cost pass-through (GCPT) and the distribution tariff before being approved by EC.

For example, the approved price for the first quarter includes transport tariff of RM1.19 per mmBtu, the legacy GCPT of 62 sen per mmBtu and distribution tariff of RM1.88 per mmBtu, according to Gas Malaysia’s announcement on Jan 12.

The regulated gas price has in the past been a point of contention for EC and gas supply players with manufacturers, when gas prices plunged to a low of US$3 per mmBtu around April last year. At that time, some industries had made calls for the fixed price to be reduced in line with the spot price.

The Malaysian Gas Association (MGA), an industry lobby group for the liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry, says, however, that any call to revisit the regulated tariff should consider the whole gas supply and pricing ecosystem and not be limited to opportunistic reaction towards LNG spot pricing.

MGA further states that the government’s decision in December 2019 to regulate gas prices, for two more years, with a predetermined base tariff for consumers supplied by Gas Malaysia affords the industrial players long-term surety of supply and pricing.

“This move addressed concerns raised earlier by the industry that, in the past, late notice on changes to the regulated prices was ‘too abrupt and destructive’,” the association had said then.

“Coincidentally, relying on supply from the spot LNG market will expose consumers to price volatility, which is contrary to the needs of the industry.

“To honour the commitment to long-term contracts with their customers, the suppliers themselves will need to secure similar long-term contracts from their own suppliers.

“Any tariff set should consider the cost to the suppliers in procuring the supply and the risk undertaken by them to secure long-term supply to ensure uninterrupted supply to consumers.”

The current gas price framework appears to be adjusted on quarterly, compared with the 12-month basis last year. Prior to that, gas price was fixed at a six-month interval.

At the time, the Federation of Malaysian Manufacturers (FMM) had been eager to take on the supply risk to take advantage of the low prices then, stating in a response to The Edge’s queries that manufacturers were ready for market liberalisation.

Full market liberalisation with third-party access to the Peninsular Gas Pipeline and the regasification terminals in Sungai Udang, Melaka, and Pengerang, Johor, was supposed to be implemented this year. The government deferred this move, however, to 2022 to allow more time for the transition.

“During this two-year transition period, industrial customers are allowed to acquire the volume of gas above their contract terms with Gas Malaysia from any supplier on a willing-buyer, willing-seller basis,” FMM had said then.

This shows that local manufacturers have already started buying gas from the international markets through third-party suppliers.

Questions to FMM on whether Malaysian manufacturers and industries were ready for the liberalised market were not answered at press time.

According to S&P Global Platts, Asian spot LNG prices have risen to unprecedented levels, owing to a shortage of cargo in February, coupled with transport bottlenecks, supply outages and record winter temperatures that boosted end-user demand.

Low spot availability, Panama Canal restrictions and icy conditions in North Asian ports have contributed to LNG shipping rates’ hitting a multi-year high, with prices reaching US$300,000 per day in January, says S&P Global Platts.

In terms of demand, the multiple cold waves in the northern provinces of China since December had caused energy shortages, as the condition forced utilities to deploy all energy sources available. In the first week of January, average temperatures in Beijing fell to the lowest level since 1966.

Meanwhile, Japanese utilities that are facing gas shortages have cut back on surplus electricity sales on their power exchange and resorted to burning more coal and fuel oil, in addition to procuring more spot LNG at high prices, according to S&P Global Platts.

The month-long state of emergency in Tokyo and three adjacent prefectures has also boosted residential energy demand. As Japan is expected to expand the state of emergency to more prefectures, the situation is expected to worsen.

Japan’s power demand rose 13% year on year for the first week of 2021, averaging 108GW, with the 3.5% increase in December also supported by cold weather, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics. Some regions saw a 20% increase and the cold has been amplified by the need to keep windows open for circulation amid the Covid-19 pandemic.

In South Korea, electricity demand jumped to a wintertime high, with the state-run Korea Power Exchange on high alert. Temperatures in Seoul dropped to -18.6°C in early January, the lowest in 35 years, according to the Korea Meteorological Administration.

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