War is a spectrum. It comes in a variety of forms. It is also conducted in various manners, invariably, appearing as hues of grey.

As and when a squadron of fighter jets flies into the Aerial Identification Defense Zones (AIDZ) of another entity, it is legally correct that AIDZ does not belong to anyone. It is a buffer or a space that separates one country from its neighbour. Yet, when the fighter jets are up at 23,000 metres, perhaps higher, which is once again the international airspace, what is shown on the radar on the ground station has to be eyeballed and identified by the military jets of the other side.

Whether the incursion into the AIDZ is a form of "lawfare" or not, the key is that from the moment the fighter jets are up till the moment they land without incident, the aircraft maintenance crew needs four to five days to make sure that the fighter planes are safe enough to fly again. In other words, the planes have to be grounded for serious scrutiny.

In issuing nuclear threats at the United Nations (UN)'s General Assembly, there is the possibility that Russian President Vladimir Putin is bluffing.

That having been said, on September 21 2022, Putin also categorically affirmed that this is not a bluff. That Russia is more than capable of carrying out this form of nuclear armed assault, indeed, to defend itself from the constant defeats of Russia at the Ukrainian front, which lies at the east coast of Donbass and Luhansk.

Whether Putin is telling the truth or not, the nuclear posture review of Russia, which he oversaw in 2013, did allow Russia to use up to 80 Kilotons of tactical nuclear weapons. This is the equivalent of a bomb that is capable of a Nagasaki or Hiroshima level blast each.

The United States (U.S) has revised its nuclear defence power posture in 2017. The goal, not least, is to signal to its Russian counterparts, indeed anyone who matters, that the U.S will not allow anyone to threaten it and its allies; Ukraine being the country which Washington DC has decided to support with arms and ammunitions.

There are several factors which signal that the East Asian Summit (EAS), which is held back-to-back with the year-end ASEAN Summit, must take the rhetorical nuclear tit-for-tat seriously. To begin with, the Asia Pacific has the most number of nuclear weapons states in a single region, of which East Asia is but a part.

The countries that have nuclear weapons are not just the US and Russia alone but China, India, Pakistan and North Korea too. Granted the United Kingdom (U.K.), another nuclear weapons state, has already made a return to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) as the 12th Dialogue Partner, the EAS is now a summit that covers a wide area in the Asia Pacific that has more nuclear weapons states than anywhere else in the world.

This is the region where the "nuclear taboo" must be maintained. Barring the collective effort to denounce any attempt to use the nuclear weapons, even only by rhetorical assertion, as Putin did, that this is not a bluff, it is important that the EAS takes him seriously.

Secondly, the EAS was formed in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia in November 2005. Part of the membership conditions of the EAS, to which the U.S. and Russia both became members in 2011, is the accession to the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC). The TAC, which is the moral and legal anchor of ASEAN, affirms categorically that no member state must use force as an instrument of foreign policy.

The threat to resort to the use of nuclear weapons should the member states of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) not back off from supporting Ukraine is obviously a clear violation of the terms and conditions of TAC.

Thirdly, it has been established by the United Nations General Assembly that this is a war which Russia must back off from. By this token, it is the duty of Putin to de-escalate the conflict too, not just NATO, let alone Ukraine, where 20 per cent of its eastern sector has been occupied by its Slavic neighbour.

Indeed, the time in Kviv corresponds with Russia. The two capitals share more than this commonality alone. Kviv has the name "Little Moscow". If two countries that share so much cultural, chronometric and linguistic affinity do not know how to make peace, what then can be said of the world order? By this measure, Canada and the United States would have to be constantly wary of one another too. Yet the two North American neighbours are not in this form of toxic conflict. The EAS should try harder to make the two countries more amenable to using diplomacy to resolve their problems. To begin with, Ukraine has already expressed its willingness not to be a member of NATO in order to avert the conflict from getting closer and closer to the nuclear precipice.

It is not in the interest of the US, NATO, or Russia itself, to literally "go nuke". The lesson of Chernobyl in Ukraine should be an important primer that no one can win in anything verging on the use of nuclear weapons.

More importantly, the centrality of ASEAN would come under serious scrutiny if one of the key summits which it organises in its own neighbourhood, being held this year in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, ends up having nothing to say on how the Pan Slavic conflict has become not only catastrophic for the whole of Europe but the whole world. The cost of living is shooting up in the main due to the inability of Ukraine and Russia to stop the spectre of mutually assured destruction (MAD).

Indeed, it is important for ASEAN and the whole world to understand that as and when Russia does begin lobbing their tactical nuclear missiles at Ukraine, the computer systems in NATO would not know if this is an all out nuclear war or a limited one. If anything, the radar will assume the worst of the worst.

In this vein, anything and everything that is coming out from the speeches of Putin, whether at the UN or elsewhere, should be treated with the utmost seriousness. By the same token, the U.S. which is the main backer of Ukraine in this devastating conflict, must learn how to take a few steps back.

The Ukrainian and Russian conflict has resulted in 80,000 Russian fatalities, according to reliable Western sources, which the Kremlin has not challenged. By signing a decree to mobilise another 300,000 Russian soldiers into active military service, Moscow is doing what their own people are doubtful about.

Research by Twitter and Google have shown that most Russians have looked for "ways to leave Russia." These are tell tale signals that Russians themselves are suffering and are eager to look for a way out ! Time for ASEAN and EAS to do their level best to stop this war.

Kim Beng Phar is an associate fellow of edX.org, the free online education initiative pioneered by Harvard University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Osman Erdogdu provided research assistance for this article.