(June 8): A political observer expects a "confrontation" between Datuk Seri Najib Abdul Razak and Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad in the second half to this year which will decide whether the prime minister will continue to lead Barisan Nasional in the next general election.

Professor James Chin said he anticipated this because of the current situation where the former prime minister was growing increasingly strident in his attacks on Najib.

"It is my belief, there will be a confrontation in the second half of this year to decide whether Najib will remain in power," he said responding to question whether Najib would continue be the face of BN in the next election.

Chin, director of the University of Tasmania's Asia Institute director, said Najib's fate depended on the outcome of the ongoing attacks and rebuttals. He was speaking to reporters on the sidelines of a conference on Malaysia's 13th general election in 2013 organised by Universiti Tun Abdul Razak today.

Dr Mahathir has criticised and called for Najib's resignation over a host of issues but largely on the debt-ridden 1Malaysia Development Bhd of which the prime minister is advisory board chairman.

Najib has responded through speeches and blog posts, reminding the elder statesman that he (Najib) had previously supported Dr Mahathir during the years Umno was in turmoil and told the former prime minister that it was time to let younger leaders run Malaysia.

Najib has also reiterated his refusal to step down, citing the support of the people and of his party, Umno.

An expected showdown over 1MDB scheduled for last Friday did not materialise, however, after Najib failed to show up at a public dialogue where he would have fielded questions on the government-owned strategic investment firm.

Dr Mahathir, however, was present and gave a short speech in Najib's absence until police stopped him, allegedly over security concerns.

Chin, however, said the "confrontation" might not be a public one, as it would go against Malay culture, like what happened in the case of former prime minister Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi in 2009.

"It will not be a public confrontation, it will be in private. The confrontation will be basically whether Najib can remain in power.

"This is about internal Umno politics, not a public confrontation, internal Umno confrontation on whether Najib stays on as prime minister."

He said reasons for the showdown in the second half of the year included Dr Mahathir waiting for the effects of goods and services tax (GST), completing his meet-the people sessions and to gauge how much support he had from those who decide the country leadership.

"GST started on April 1, for the full effects of GST to come in, would take three months, which is July, so it has to be from July onwards.

"The confrontation cannot happen now also because Mahathir and the gang are still doing a roadshow, to build up the support," said Chin.

He said the support was from Umno, from those who decided the leadership of this country.

"It is not the population (who decide the leadership), the most important groups are division chiefs, Malay tycoons who are associated with Umno and general Umno membership."

Chin said the earliest date for such a confrontation would be before Umno elections. – The Malaysian Insider