This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on November 28, 2022 - December 4, 2022

THE emergence of new voter trends in Malaysia’s 15th general election (GE15) on Nov 19 culminated in a most stunning surprise: a significant swing in popularity away from Barisan Nasional (BN) and an estimated doubling of support for Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS) since the last general election in 2018.

Political analysts have pointed out that the swing away from BN, which was capitalised on by Perikatan Nasional (PN), was the most unexpected outcome of the election.

“While PN did gain in popularity in recent weeks — with [former prime minister] Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin having the highest popular support among all leaders, and support for [Umno president] Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi plummeting tremendously — few expected that they would perform as exceedingly well as they did,” Institute for Democracy and Economic Affairs CEO Tricia Yeoh tells The Edge.

Observers can only surmise the reasons for the outcome.

“It could be dissatisfaction with BN’s leadership splits and internal rivalries, or the party’s poor leadership in the form of court-embattled Zahid Hamidi. Perhaps it was the perception of PN being a strong alternative [to] BN, the turn therefore to a more trustworthy, religious coalition,” Yeoh says.

Erudite circles have pointed out that GE15 was essentially a battle for Malay votes, which was different from the previous general election that challenged the 1Malaysia Development Bhd scandal and the excesses of then prime minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak and his family.

Observing the birth of a “new Malay belt”, political analysts say that racial-religious polarisation is pervasive in the peninsula, with a new wave of support for PAS extending its influence beyond the Islamist party’s stronghold of Kelantan and Terengganu, into Kedah, Pahang, Perak and Penang.

Surprising defeats such as Nurul ­Izzah Anwar’s loss of her Permatang Pauh parliamentary seat — held by her family for decades — as well as that of Amanah vice-president Mujahid Yusof Rawa in Parit Buntar, Perak, and former education minister Dr Maszlee Malik in Simpang Renggam, Johor, shows that leaders who once promoted themselves as moderate Muslim democrats are at risk of being overshadowed by Islamist conservative leaders, says Ooi Kok Hin, a resource person for The Coalition for Clean and Fair Elections (Bersih).

Dr Nungsari A Radhi, an economist, adds that BN’s continued loss of confidence in its leadership since GE14 also posited PAS as the main beneficiary of lost votes as Umno supporters switched their allegiance to the Islamist party, while Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) lost some of its supporters since the last election.

Tactics to malign Democratic Action Party (DAP) were effective despite PAS not having any clear policy recommendations or demonstrating a track record of governing, he observes.

Then there was the impact of Undi18, which brought 6.23 million new voters on the voting roll as a result of the lowering of the voting age to 18 from 21, and automatic voter registration, bringing the total number eligible to vote in GE15 to 21.17 million.

“Were the new voters voting for what the PN administration stands for? Did they vote based on PAS and Perikatan’s agenda? Or were they in protest of Umno?” questions Bersih’s Ooi.

“It is uncertain. But what is certain is that Umno’s trajectory in the coming months or years will be very impactful in the long-term viability of Malaysia’s democracy.

“It missed a very important opportunity to reform itself after it lost the 2018 election [and in] the next month, voted [in] its No 2 guy, Zahid Hamidi. Its old guards were leading the party with no major changes done. This time, it must seize the opportunity to reform the party and position itself as a competent alternative to PN and Pakatan Harapan,” Ooi says.

IMAN Research co-founder and managing director Altaf Deviyati notes that while the racial-religious rhetoric used in GE15 was not new, what stood out were its amplification via social media and the significantly higher number of voters sharing those sentiments.

Campaign content made the rounds on TikTok, a social media platform popular with the younger demographic, which Altaf says became a key platform of religious “dakwah way before the election”.

The political analysts note that social media was aflush with “incitement and hatred” as discord over matters of religion, ethnicity and politics was “sown among Malaysians, with no enforcement by authorities to curtail it”.

Posts with uniform hashtags as well as simultaneous timing of media uploads appeared to hint at coordination, they observe.

A 2017 study entitled Believing in Extremism: What Drives Our Youths? by IMAN Research offers a glimpse into young minds.

The study, which was based on findings limited to Selangor and Sabah, revealed that both violent and non-violent forms of extremism were taking root in the nation.

“Based on the findings, young Malaysian adults who support violent extremism are likely to be male, with either low or high social capital, and have a history of delinquent behaviour. They identify themselves as belonging to a group, see the world and others through a cultural or ethnic bias, and display psychological traits such as manipulativeness. We saw all this during the campaign period and post elections,” Altaf says.

The good news is, violent extremism is preventable and can be addressed, first by investing in strengthening community resilience and seeing to democratic education, she stresses. The cultural and education gap between urban and rural areas must be bridged, she adds.

Data from UK-based market research and data analytics firm YouGov, which interviewed 2,687 Malaysian citizens across Malaysia between Nov 8 and 14, shows nearly half of Malaysians have no qualms sharing who they voted for in GE15, while fewer than a quarter had reservations doing so.

Results among the demographic of 18- to 45-year-olds showed that a majority did not have a problem discussing their choices within their circles, while a comparison between urban and rural electorates showed the former as being more likely to discuss their votes with friends and family.

“Political maturity needs to be ramped up. We have empowered our youth to vote without first educating them about the significance of their choices,” says Ooi.

“Our enforcers should be empowered to look into this. TikTok Malaysia should be held accountable. Some people have publicly aired their views on this and tagged the social media platform to report hateful content. The Malaysian Communications and Multimedia Commission must monitor such content,” says Ooi.

Yeoh points out that the political rhetoric displayed during the campaign period will continue to make its rounds, and worse, have a trickle-down effect to the general public.

“If the man on the street absorbs the messages heard during the campaign trail and acts on them without the opportunity to interact with others who may moderate such extremist views, the risk is a society that no longer trusts [each] other,” she warns.

“Such a country would be very difficult for any prime minister to lead, since a leader ought to represent the interests of people from all races and religions.”

“Given that all the political coalitions did not mention fiscal consolidation in their manifestos, and voter sentiment today leans towards more populist tendencies, there is concern that the new prime minister may not be able to make swift and courageous decisions in this area,” Yeoh cautions.

In addition, the greater polarising voting patterns that emerged in this GE may intensify in the next elections, she adds.

“Hence, unless there is a strengthening of the centre to recapture the imagination of middle Malaysia, the fringes will tend towards either sides of the extreme — which will not augur well for the future of a united, integrated nation.”

Nungsari emphasises that politics should be defined by economics instead of identity-based considerations. Interracial relationships must be constantly enforced, and the breakdown in cross-cultural interactions, which is partly due to inequality and underdevelopment, need to be addressed.

To bridge the urban-rural divide, Altaf suggests a reintroduction of civic education, with emphasis on democratic education. A targeted means to address extremism is empathy, not tolerance, she explains. Altaf also proposes breaking down the constituency delineation favouring rural territories at present.

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