TWO years into Covid-19, the pandemic is not over yet. But more countries are prepared to move into the endemic stage, though there has been a resurgence in global coronavirus cases. With rising global vaccination rates, healthcare experts suggest that it is time to treat the virus as a seasonal flu.

At the same time, the reopening of borders has been on the agenda of many countries, including Malaysia, where the National Recovery Council has suggested to fully open the borders as early as March 1 without the mandatory quarantine requirement. Senior Minister (Defence) Datuk Seri Hishammuddin Hussein said last Thursday the proposal was still being discussed as it involves various ministries and has to be deliberated by the cabinet. This was followed by Minister of Health Khairy Jamaluddin’s remarks last Friday that the government would take prudent steps before declaring the transition to the endemic phase.

While the Omicron variant is said to be less severe than the Delta strain, many have minimised their house visits and gatherings during the Chinese New Year. Will the spike in cases dent market confidence and subsequently lead to a slower-than-expected recovery?

Note that within the space of a week, the number of infections had leapt nearly three times to 20,939 last Friday from 7,234 a week ago. Just days before the Chinese New Year celebration, Khairy warned that the Omicron wave had started in Malaysia when Covid-19 cases breached the 5,000 mark.

Despite the expected rise in the number of cases — which could peak at 30,000 by end-March — the government has reiterated that the Covid-19 situation in the country will be under control in view of the high vaccination rate, hence, there will be no lockdowns.

This is supported by key data released in relation to the impact of Omicron and Delta. The number of Covid-19 admissions to the intensive care unit was 1,547 on Aug 11, 2021, against only 158 recorded on Feb 11, 2022. Likewise, the daily death toll on Aug 11, 2021, was 332, while less than 10 cases were registered on Feb 11, 2022.

On the vaccination front, over half of the Malaysian population aged 18 and above have received their booster shots. A week ago, the government kicked off the vaccination drive for children aged between five and 12. The latest data from the Ministry of Health (MoH) showed that a total of 52 clusters or 58.4% of the 89 new clusters were from the education sector.

As the general population has a better sense of what the risks are, Dr Yeah Kim Leng, professor of economics at Sunway University, says this will lead to greater willingness to take on risk in order to gain some kind of normality in their life, despite the current Omicron wave.

Owing to lockdown fatigue arising from the prolonged restrictive measures, he thinks the younger generation and healthy group will continue to spend and contribute to the economy.

“This group of people will be able to proceed with a higher level of normalisation,” he tells The Edge.

In contrast, there could be risk aversion in the vulnerable group, especially those aged above 60, as they may have to take extra precautions in resuming their normal socialising.

Yeah says at this stage, it is important to ensure no major disruptions to businesses and production activities, hence, workplace infections are the key factor to watch out for.

With the high vaccination rate, he thinks the government may not need to impose widespread restrictions on social economic activities.  “The strategy is towards endemicity. Our hospital bed utilisation is now close to 70%, but if the trend rises, then we can expect the government to impose some restrictions to flatten the curve. Evidence suggests that with the high vaccination rate, hospitalisation (for Category 4 and 5 patients) cases are low.”

Overall, Yeah observes that the recovery momentum has increased, largely owing to a rise in domestic consumption and investment activities. “The momentum is likely to continue if Covid-19 becomes endemic,” he notes.

So far, mobility data for Malaysia tracked by Google has not shown drastic changes since the declaration of the Omicron wave in the country.

The retail and recreation category — which tracks visits to places such as restaurants, shopping centres, theme parks and cinemas — saw a 13% decline from the baseline on Feb 6, 2022, compared with a 3% drop on Dec 31, 2021, according to the Google Community Mobility Reports.

The baseline is the median value for the corresponding day of the week during the five-week period of Jan 3 to Feb 6, 2020.

The grocery and pharmacy category — which tracks visits to places such as supermarkets, farmers’ markets and pharmacies — recorded only a 10% increase from the baseline on Feb 6, 2022, against a 27% rise on Dec 31, 2021.

Meanwhile, the mobility trend for places of residence — which tracks the number of hours spent at home — was up 9% from the baseline on Feb 6, 2022, compared with a 10% rise on Dec 31, 2021.

Globally, the International Monetary Fund last month said it projects a slower economic growth of 4.4% in 2022 from 5.9% in 2021, as the world economy entered the year in a weaker position amid the spread of the Omicron variant and new rounds of restrictions by countries.

At home, Bank Negara Malaysia announced last Friday that gross domestic product (GDP) increased 3.1% in 2021 after registering 3.6% growth in the last quarter, underpinned by expansion on the supply and expenditure sides of the economy. GDP shrank 5.6% in 2020 owing to the pandemic’s adverse impact. The central bank will provide a forecast for 2022 next month.

Nonetheless, the transition to the endemic stage appears imminent this year. For Malaysia, Yeah says greater clarity could be seen in 2Q when Omicron cases are expected to ease.

“Our spotlight is on severe cases; hopefully the death rate will remain low. Then the transition will be solidified.”

Last Tuesday, Hishammuddin provided an update on the transition plan, saying the timing will be decided by the Special Committee on Covid-19 Pandemic Management, after a delay last year owing to the emergence of the Omicron variant.

Touching on the proposal to reopen borders, Yeah highlights that the government has to take a more measured approach owing to the current sharp increase in cases. This includes the mandatory checks on the vaccination status of visitors as well as ­Covid-19 tests.

“The government has to see whether the number of severe cases will rise, and whether it can cope with the hospital capacity utilisation. It is very important for people to have access to healthcare and support services. Protocols and procedures also need to be well understood. This will strengthen people’s confidence to face what is likely to be the final lap in the pandemic issue.”

Though there are concerns over the proposal to reopen borders, medical doctor and health systems specialist Dr Yap Wei Aun sees weak justification for border controls when there have been thousands of daily new cases spread by domestic transmission for the last several months during the current phase of Covid-19.

“Strict border controls didn’t stop Omicron from coming in. By depriving the travel and tourism industry of its livelihood, the poverty and stress faced by families dependent on this industry will lead to lasting harm to their health and well-being.”

He is “cautiously optimistic” on the ­Covid-19 situation in Malaysia given that the country has entered a different phase of the pandemic.

“We will be able to reap the benefits of vaccination and better tools and clinical knowledge in managing Covid-19. Furthermore, as we are over two years into the pandemic, the MoH has had the time to prepare for the surge in cases, most of which will be mild as these are Omicron cases, without having to resort to EMCO [Enhanced Movement Control Order] or MCO [Movement Control Order], which are of limited value, as noted in the previous surge and recent studies.

“Learning lessons from past experience, the government should empower district health offices and ensure that they have the capabilities and automation required to manage and monitor a large volume of cases while mobilising general practitioners so that any deterioration, especially among the vulnerable, can be picked up on early on and treated,” he says.

He points out that communication is critical, with simple messages sent out to minimise disruption from the virus and measures taken to moderate the rate of transmission.

When asked whether the Omicron wave would deter people from going out, Yap says: “With Omicron, some will decide they can take on more risk than others, and that’s fine. Others, of their own free choice, will be more cautious and stay at home. That is also fine. But, overall, businesses that have invested in improving ventilation to provide a safer experience for customers will benefit at this stage.”

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