KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 9): AmBank Group Research expects Malaysia’s third quarter 2022 (3Q2022) GDP numbers will be at 12.2%, better than 2Q2022’s growth of 8.9%.

In an economics highlight on Wednesday (Nov 9), AmBank chief economist and head of research Dr Anthony Dass also maintained his all-year GDP forecast at 7.5% (base-case), with an upside of 8.5%.

Dass said Malaysia’s industrial production (IP) in September expanded by 10.8% year-on-year (y-o-y), which is slower pace relative to previous month’s number of 13.5% y-o-y.

He said this brings the year-to-date growth for IP is 7.9% (2021: 8.8%).

“On a month-on-month basis, the overall production increased by 1.3% (Aug 2022: 3.9%).

“The export-oriented industries grew 10.1% y-o-y (Aug 2022:12.4%) while the domestic-oriented industries advanced 11.2% y-o-y (Aug 2022: 22.5%),” he said.

Dass said that looking into the subsegments within the manufacturing sector, the production of transport equipment & other manufactures grew by 21.6% y-o-y (Aug 2022: 55.2% y-o-y) and wood, furniture, paper products & printing grew by 8.7% y-o-y (Aug 2022: 16.6% y-o-y).

He said electrical & eletroctronics (E&E) continues to grow at double-digit by 15.5% y-o-y (August 2022: 19.6% y-o-y).

“Even looking on month-on-month basis, the production of this commodity increased by 2.4%, a slower pace relative to previous month’s growth of 6.0%.

“However, global semiconductors purchase now have contracted since July this year, reflecting the end of the tech cycle.

“Still, we expect global semiconductor sales to grow by 14.0% in 2022, and eventually 5.0% in 2023,” he said.

Dass said that for October, there may be softer manufacturing activities, taking cue from the deeper contractions in recent Manufacturing PMI and higher base effects.

“The headline reading fell to 48.7 in October from 49.1 in the previous months, due to slump in global market conditions and muted customer demand,” he said.