This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on October 24, 2022 - October 30, 2022

THE effort to strengthen Malaysia’s democratic process got a boost during the 14th parliament, which began in July 2018 and was dissolved this month. Among the major changes are the lowering of the voting age to 18 from 21, and automatic voter registration (AVR).

These two amendments to the constitution, which were passed with bipartisan support in the parliament, have led to the addition of 6.23 million new voters in the voters’ roll, bringing to 21.17 million the number of voters eligible to vote in the 15th general election (GE15), which will be held on Nov 19.

Between the two cohorts of new voters, however, political analysts believe it is the AVR voters who will be the wild card for political parties in this GE, and not the Undi18 voters.

First, the AVRs comprise the bulk of first-time voters, whose intentions and inclinations cannot be read by the political parties.

According to data from the Election Commission (EC), of the 6.23 million new voters, only 1.4 million voters are aged 18 to 20, or the so-called “Undi18” voters.

This shows there are 4.87 million AVRs that are eligible to vote in GE15, or 77.7% of the total number of new voters. These eligible voters come from all ages aside from the 18-to-20 age bracket.

According to Prof Wong Chin Huat, deputy head (strategy) of the United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network’s Asia Headquarters (SDSN-Asia) at Sunway University, instead of harping on the “Undi18” voters, it is the AVRs that people should pay attention to.

This is because they are the passive swing voters who do not care enough for politics previously for them to get registered, and therefore most likely will not come out to vote this time round. However, if they do come out to vote, it is more likely to punish the candidates or parties than to reward them, he says.

“But to be the beneficiary of such protest/negative votes, the rival candidates must not be hated by [the voters] in the first place.

“Such voters could total 40% (it was 45% in the Johor state election in March), and if half of them are out to punish, many incumbents or leading candidates would be in danger,” says Wong.

The recent Johor state election was the first in which the Undi18 voters, as well as the AVR cohort, could vote. During the election, the total number of eligible voters rose to 2.6 million, compared with 1.82 million in the 14th general election in May 2018, an increase of 42.9% of total voters, according to EC data.

Despite the almost 43% increase in eligible voters in Johor in the state election, about the same number of voters turned out — 1.43 million versus 1.33 million voters in GE14.

It is not known how many AVR and Undi18 voters turned up to vote during the Johor state election. Through the election, the majority of the state seats returned to Barisan Nasional (BN), with the coalition increasing its seats to 40 in the state legislative assembly, from 16 won in GE14.

The election also saw the return of the Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA) to the Johor state assembly. Seats such as Yong Peng, Paloh, Bekok and Pekan Nanas, which were won by Pakatan Harapan’s (PH) coalition member Democratic Action Party (DAP) in GE14, were lost to the MCA.

There were also surprise results such as the Maharani seat in the Muar parliamentary constituency, which was won by Perikatan Nasional’s (PN) Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS) instead of BN’s Umno, in a six-cornered fight that included PH’s Parti Amanah Negara, the incumbent; Parti Pejuang Tanah Air; Parti Bangsa Malaysia; and an independent candidate.

Meanwhile, the Endau seat was retained in a five-cornered fight by Alwiyah Talib, who won it in GE14 under the BN-Umno ticket before defecting to Bersatu.

According to Wong, it is likely that the Undi18 voters’ voting behaviour resembles that of people in their early 20s, most of whom are expected to care most about jobs, cost of living, housing, and transportation issues, while some might also care about education, democracy and freedom.

In a small survey conducted by The Edge between Oct 12 and 19, those in the Undi18 cohort are less likely to vote in GE15 compared with the 21-to-24 age group — those who were ineligible to vote in GE14 despite being aged between 18 and 20 then.

The survey, which had a sample size of 500, found that only 77% of respondents in the 18-to-20 age bracket were going to vote in GE15. In comparison, the survey found that 88% of those in the 21-to-24 age bracket — also first-time voters — were going to vote in GE15.

However, these two groups have almost identical concerns that have prompted them to vote in GE15. They are mostly concerned about economic issues, such as finance (prices of goods and cost-of-living issues), and issues concerning employment and business opportunities.

According to the survey, 86.7% of respondents aged between 18 and 20 say financial issues are their main concern. Meanwhile, 89.1% of respondents in the 21-to-24 age group cited financial issues as their main concern — both groups showed closely similar percentages.

Employment and business opportunities make up the second most important group of issues that young voters are worried about: It is a concern for 87.32% of the 21-to-24-year-old respondents and for 70.6% of those in the 18-to-20 age bracket, almost 17% lower than the former.

This is where the two groups differ in their concerns. While the younger group is also concerned about jobs and economic opportunities, their slightly older brethren, who are most likely already in the job market or starting up businesses, are more concerned about this issue.

Concern about religious issues also differs between the two groups of young voters.

Among those in the 18-to-20 age bracket, almost half, or 49.7%, cite religious issues as a major concern going into GE15. Only 37% of respondents in the 21-to-24 age bracket are concerned about religious issues.

Some 47% of respondents in the 21-to-24 age bracket are concerned about the protection of ethnic rights, while 53.85% of respondents in the 18-to-20 age bracket are concerned.

Meanwhile, Prof Dr Ahmad Fauzi Abdul Hamid, a professor of political science at Universiti Sains Malaysia, says what motivates the Undi18 cohort to participate in the coming GE will very much depend on their level of political awareness and literacy.

“The problem is our education system does not encourage our students to get acquainted with the political system, unlike in the West, where it is part and parcel of their education,” he tells The Edge.

This makes them very unpredictable, despite being the generation that grew up with easy access to the internet.

How and to what extent access to information will influence them in the ballot boxes remains to be seen, and they are most likely influenced by their parents and immediate surroundings, says Ahmad Fauzi.

This is where the challenge would be for all parties, especially the opposition, to get as many people from these young cohorts to go out and vote, and to encourage them to make an independent assessment of the situation in Malaysia.

Because if the majority of eligible young voters stay away from GE15, the powers that be will benefit the most, because then the status quo will remain, says Fauzi.

“If they (the young voters) go out and vote — young people have the tendency to be anti-establishment; they don’t like people with authority — that by default will give advantage to those who are not in power,” adds Fauzi.

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