This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily on November 21, 2019
YSP Southeast Asia Holding Bhd
(Nov 20, RM2.50)
Maintain buy with an unchanged target price (TP) of RM3: Despite recording a weaker third quarter of financial year 2019 (3QFY19) core net profit (CNP) (-9% year-on-year [y-o-y]), YSP Southeast Asia Holding Bhd’s y-o-y earnings contraction has narrowed, while earnings were actually stronger on a quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) basis. This was despite 3Q typically being a seasonally weak quarter. This reaffirms our view that YSP is on the road to recovery as its new equipment is running at more efficient rates. We maintain our earnings forecasts and reiterate our “buy” call on YSP with an unchanged TP of RM3.
YSP reported a flattish revenue of RM74 million (+1% y-o-y) for 3QFY19 as the growth in domestic sales (+3% y-o-y) was offset by soft overseas sales (-4% y-o-y). While its CNP continued to decline by 9% y-o-y, we think the results are showing signs of recovery as the y-o-y earnings contraction narrowed to only -9% for 3QFY19 from an average -36% for the past three consecutive quarters, despite the unfavourable foreign exchange rate in 3Q19 (3Q18: RM4.09/US$ versus 3Q19: RM4.16/US$). We believe this was mainly due to an improvement in margins as its new equipment is running at more efficient rates. The results were in line with expectations.
Sequentially, YSP’s CNP recorded a significant 19% improvement for 3QFY19. Based on the historical three-year average data, 3Q is typically a seasonally weak quarter, making up only 18%-19% of its profit before tax and CNP.
With both the narrowed y-o-y decline in CNP and the q-o-q improvement in 3QFY19, we think that YSP is on the road to recovery following the initial start-up expenses for its new equipment which it incurred in the past few quarters. We continue to expect margins to improve gradually in the coming quarters.
We maintain our earnings forecasts, “buy” rating and TP of RM3, based on an unchanged target price-earnings ratio of 14 times. Downside risks include weakening of the ringgit against the US dollar, product recalls and regulatory risks. — Affin Hwang Capital, Nov 20