This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on September 2, 2019 - September 8, 2019

Following the long weekend, this four-day week will not be a quiet one as all eyes will be on trade numbers, both on the international and domestic fronts.

Malaysia observes the replacement holiday for Awal Muharram on Monday, while the US and Canada will be marking Labour Day.

Vietnam will also be on holiday on Monday to celebrate its independence day.

Kicking off the trade-filled week is the world’s biggest economy, with Reuters reporting that the US is set to begin collection of a 15% tariff on a portion of the list covering over US$125 billion of targeted goods from China on Sunday. These include smart watches, Bluetooth headphones, flat panel television sets and many types of footwear.

How China is coping with the trade war can be better gauged when the Caixin manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for August is released on Monday. According to UOB Global Economics and Markets Research, China’s Caixin PMI numbers may ease to 49.8 from 49.9 in July. A level below 50 denotes contraction.

The US will also be releasing its trade data on Thursday. According to UOB, the most important data to come out of the US this week will be its August labour market report, which is set to be released on Friday.

“We expect 250,000 non-farm payrolls (NFPs), up from 164,000 in July, and Bloomberg’s consensus forecast is at 164,000 as at Aug 30,” the firm says.

UOB expects the US unemployment rate to stay unchanged at 3.7%.

Over in the UK, Queen Elizabeth II has approved a mid-September suspension of parliament that was mooted by flamboyant UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson ahead of the Oct 31 Brexit deadline. However, this will be a space to watch as Johnson’s decision has sparked a backlash from members of the opposition as well as his own party.

On the home front, the PMI for August is set to be released on Monday. The survey data for July shows that the Malaysian manufacturing sector continued to endure a challenging business environment, with the PMI coming in at 47.6, a marginal decline from 47.8 in June.

The Department of Statistics Malaysia is releasing the external trade numbers for July on Wednesday.

Twelve economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the July export numbers to contract 2.3%. Exports in June registered a decline of 3.1% year on year to RM76.2 billion while imports also decreased 9.2% year on year to RM65.9 billion.

Another important update is Bank Negara Malaysia’s announcement of the foreign reserves balance as at Aug 30. The central bank’s international reserves slipped 0.8% to US$103.1 billion as at Aug 15, which is sufficient to finance 7.6 months of retained imports and is 1.1 times total short-term external debt.

As for monetary policy updates, UOB said the Reserve Bank of Aus tralia (RBA) will be the only major Asia-Pacific central bank with a monetary policy decision on Tuesday. “According to an Aug 30 Bloomberg poll, 18 out of 22 economists polled expect RBA to keep its policy rate unchanged at 1% while only four economists expect another

 25-basis-point cut to 0.75%. We expect the RBA to stay on pause in August,” says UOB.

On the ringgit, FXTM expects the local currency to experience volatility in the week ahead against major currencies, with Brexit uncertainties plaguing the pound sterling as the UK parliament reconvenes, while the US NFP could significantly sway the US dollar.

Property developer Asian Pac Holdings Bhd will be holding its annual general meeting (AGM) on Tuesday while DPS Resources Bhd, which is involved in furniture manufacturing and property development, will be holding its AGM on Friday in Melaka.

Property developer Eastern & Oriental Bhd (E&O) and metallurgical coke manufacturer Sino Hua-An International Bhd will both be holding their respective extraordinary general meetings (EGMs) during the week.

E&O’s EGM on Tuesday is for shareholders to consider and, if thought fit, to pass to the resolution to give effect to its proposed rights issue with warrants, which will entail an issuance of new E&O shares together with Warrants C to raise gross proceeds of RM232.79 million.

Sino Hua-An’s EGM on Thursday is for its shareholders to vote on a resolution on its proposed issuance of redeemable convertible notes with an aggregate principal amount of up to RM150 million.

In April, Sino Hua-An announced plans to diversify into the food and beverage business, which includes the acquisition of TGI Friday in Malaysia and Teh Tarik Place.

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