This article first appeared in Capital, The Edge Malaysia Weekly, on January 11 - 17, 2016.

THE share price of Genting Plantations Bhd (GenP) has risen by 6% in the past 12 months while its issued warrant, GenP-WA, has gained at a much faster pace of 21%.

But GenP-WA still appears to be a cheaper proxy for investors who wish to ride the plantation giant’s prospects. It carries a strike price of RM7.75 and a one-to-one conversion ratio, and expires on June 17, 2019.

GenP-WA is currently trading at a slight discount of 0.85% to the mother share, which closed at RM10.54 last Thursday.

Based on those prices, GenP-WA, which closed at RM2.70 last Thursday, would theoretically be worth 3.3% more at RM2.79, assuming zero premium to the underlying shares.

A quick check on Bloomberg shows analysts are split on just how much upside there is for GenP, with eight houses calling a “buy” versus nine with “hold” and three with “sell”. Their target prices range from RM9.15 to RM12.42, averaging at RM10.40 apiece, which is what the stock currently fetches.

Among the more bullish is UOB Kay Hian Research, which said in a recent note that GenP should still be able to deliver positive low single-digit and mid-teens growth for 2016 and 2017.

“This is attributable to its young Indonesian estates that have come into the prime age at the right time to ride on the potentially higher crude palm oil (CPO) average selling price (ASP) in 2017 due to tight supply,” it said in the Nov 26 note.

Moving forward, the key catalysts for GenP’s earnings are higher CPO prices, as well as higher production from its Indonesian estates, considering that more areas are coming into maturity and prime age, the research house said.

At the time, it upgraded GenP from “hold” to “buy”, with a higher target price of RM11.45, from RM9.30.

That means at zero premiums, GenP-WA would theoretically be worth RM3.70, or 37% more than current levels if the mother share hits the target price.

Still, investors might want to look for positive signals in crude palm oil prices first.

GenP had warned that selling prices of palm oil products remain pressured by the prevailing weakness in the oilseeds and crude oil markets, along with a build-up in Malaysian palm oil inventories. For the nine months ended Sept 30, 2015 (9MFY2015), GenP’s net profit dropped 45.6% year-on-year to RM130.35 million even as revenue fell 10.7% to RM950.53 million while fresh fruit bunches production rose 4% y-o-y.

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