Friday 29 Mar 2024
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Welcome to analytics for Undi Traffic. Our first job is to aggregate the traffic status highlights across the Peninsular for outstation voters. To do so we prepared a traffic data set with almost 200 route segments to cover the major arteries and the ins-and-withins of selected marginal and hot seats (outside the Klang Valley).

Will traffic be like Hari Raya and Chinese New Year rolled into one? Which groups will be impacted by the unprecedented decision for a midweek polling on Wednesday, May 9, 2018? 

We searched for numbers from interviews and estimates on cross-border traffic and outstation voters:

  • About 400,000 Malaysians living in Singapore. 
  • About 250,000 who commute daily to Singapore from Johor.
  • More than a million Kelantanese working outside their home state, in Penang, the Klang Valley, and as far as Singapore.
  • Over 150,000 registered Sabahan and Sarawakian voters living in Peninsular Malaysia.

These groups account for over a million outstation voters. And there are more. Consider intra-state and other inter-state migrants, including those from Penang and Ipoh-Kinta Valley.

Overall, we may expect approximately 1.7 million to 3.5 million voters (between 11-23% of eligible voters) to be on the move in the days leading up to and on polling day. 

This first report covers the traffic data for Monday, 7 May 2018, at 8.30pm to 11.30pm, just after the heavy peak hour. 

 

Undi Traffic Dashboard

Traffic Situation on Major Routes for Outstation Voters
Across the major routes, those to the East Coast and from Singapore started to pick up. Not surprisingly Klang Valley traffic eases. During the festive season exodus, traffic in the urban agglomerations drop significantly, as those from outstation leave.

Description: This summary provides insight into the traffic status for major long-distance routes for outstation voters and also the cross-Klang Valley situation. This describes when and how (journey time-wise) traffic builds up. For the time period described, the live (or current) journey time is compared to the typical (or normal) journey time and presented as a %. Source: Estimates from Google. 

 

Average Traffic Situation By Coalition-Party Across Selected Hot & Marginal Seats
This evening, the traffic situation across coalition-party zones are relatively sleepy, except for a notable traffic uptick in the BN marginal-cum-hot seats sector.

Description: This summary provides insight into when and how (journey time-wise) traffic builds up for outstation voters going to selected marginal constituencies (won with a narrow <5% margin of victory in GE13) and hot seats contested by big name politicians. Marginal-hot seats combine both criteria. 
Note: Based on GE13 outcomes. GE14 has
redelineation which will also have an impact. Traffic to/in Klang Valley seats are not reviewed as this study focuses on outstation voter moves. This description of journey times to and/or within constituencies comprises 2 or 3 routes each. For the time period shown, the live (or current) journey time is compared to the typical (or normal) journey time and presented as a %. The aggregate ratios are based on simple averages. Source: Estimates from Google. 

 

Seats with High Traffic Activity
For the seats by coalition-party with high traffic (journey-time) increase, Bentong, Tebrau, Pendang, Sungai Besar (where UMNO’s Datuk Seri Jamal Yunos is reportedly looking to woo voters with attractive cash prizes), and Permatang Pauh, are notable for a rise in traffic. Elsewhere, things are sleepy.

Description: This summary describes when and how (journey time-wise) traffic builds up for outstation voters going to selected marginal constituencies (won with a narrow <5% margin of victory in GE13) and hot seats contested by big name politicians.
Note: The marginal and hot seats for the key coalition-parties are ranked from highest traffic activity (journey time build-up) to lowest and the busiest seats are presented. This description of journey times to and/or within constituencies comprises 2 or 3 routes each. For the time period shown, the live (or current) journey time is compared to the typical (or normal) journey time and presented as a %. The aggregate ratios are based on simple averages. Source: Estimates from Google. 

Key finding: While much of the country is rather quiet, we expect significant increases in travel time and instances of congestion as Tuesday progresses.

About the hot and marginal seats in this data review:

  • For BN: 19 marginal seats. 8 hot-marginal seats: In Kedah (Pendang, Kulim-Bandar Baharu), Pahang (Bentong), Kuala Lumpur (Setiawangsa*, Titiwangsa*), and Johor (Segamat, Labis, Muar). 7 hot seats: In Kedah (Langkawi, Jerlun), Putrajaya (not analysed), Johor (Pagoh, Ayer Hitam, Simp. Renggam, Johor Bahru).
  • For PH: 6 marginal seats. 2 hot-marginal seats: in Selangor (Gombak), Kuala Lumpur (Lembah Pantai*). 7 hot seats: In Penang (Permatang Pauh), Perak (Teluk Intan - but lost in by-election to BN), Pahang (Raub, Indera Mahkota), Kuala Lumpur (Bandar Tun Razak*), Negeri Sembilan (Seremban), Johor (Bakri).
  • For PAS: 7 marginal seats: In Kelantan (Bachok, Pasir Puteh, Kuala Krai), Terengganu (Kuala Nerus), Perak (Bukit Gantang), Pahang (Temerloh), Selangor (Sepang*)
  • Note: *Traffic to/in Klang Valley seats are not reviewed as this study focuses on outstation voter moves.

 

Khor Yu Leng is an independent geo-data economist, assisted by Jeamme Chia. This data study is brought to you in collaboration with The Edge.

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