This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily on July 2, 2019

KUALA LUMPUR: Umno is risking a break up as a result of Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi’s decision to return to lead the party after letting his deputy carry out the duties of party president since last December. That is according to some political analysts and observers.

As they see it, the party is already split into camps and Ahmad Zahid’s latest move could cause Umno to fall apart.

But Ahmad Zahid’s supporters say he is merely taking back the presidency which he won. Ahmad Zahid himself, when making the announcement, reminded all and sundry that he was “elected and not appointed by the Umno leadership”.

His supporters have always maintained that Ahmad Zahid had only passed the powers of the president to Datuk Seri Mohamad Hasan who was never acting president.

Political analyst Dr Agus Yusof, a long-time Umno watcher, says that legally what Ahmad Zahid has done is not wrong but “politically and even morally his move is not right”.

Agus believes that the right way would be for Ahmad Zahid to bring the matter up with the party supreme council and seek the council members’ views. Based on their feedback, he should then decide on the best possible way to make a comeback.

And even the venue Ahmad Zahid chose to make his comeback announcement is not right, according to Agus.

“He should not have chosen Bagan Datuk, his home ground, to make such an important announcement. Since he wants to lead a major Malaysian party, the announcement should be made at PWTC (Putra World Trade Centre) — Umno headquarters — while he is flanked by his deputy and supreme council members”.

That, says Agus, “would have been grand and stylish, apart from showing unity in Umno”.

Former Umno Youth chief Khairy Jamaluddin, who challenged Ahmad Zahid for the presidency last year, said the right way is to consult the supreme council.

However, former president Datuk Seri Najib Razak does not agree. He says Ahmad Zahid does not need any agreement from the supreme council and therefore the decision to return as president or not is up to Ahmad Zahid as “according to party constitution he has the right to lead Umno during the period he has been mandated”.

In last year’s party elections Ahmad Zahid defeated Khairy and party veteran Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah to be president for the 2018-2021 term.

But to Khairy, as far as wanting to return is concerned, “to say the decision is solely Ahmad Zahid’s, I would not agree”.

Ahmad Zahid, as we know, delegated the powers of the president to Mohamad in December last year amid pressure within Umno for him to step down following accusations that he failed to provide direction for the party.

And at that time there was an exodus of Umno lawmakers from the party and there were threats of more defections if he did not budge.

Budge he did but of late Ahmad Zahid has been “teasing” of making a comeback, which supporters of Mohamad do not find amusing. They claim that Umno is still being viewed as a party which has not changed “as it is still supporting leaders facing various charges of abuse of power and corruption”.

Ahmad Zahid is facing 87 charges while Najib faces 42 graft-related charges.

Mohamad has always taken a diplomatic stance on the matter, and so has Ahmad Zahid. But like Mohamad’s supporters, those supporting Ahmad Zahid are equally vocal.

Umno supreme council member Datuk Lokman Noor Adam, for instance, has accused Mohamad and vice president Datuk Seri Khaled Nordin of being subservient to Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad.

Recently he accused Mohamad and Khaled of plotting to oust Ahmad Zahid and Najib via amendments to the party constitution which seek to dismiss Umno members facing criminal charges in court.

He later said the amendments were withdrawn “due to objections and resistance”. But Mohamad, in denying talk of an ouster plot, said the amendments are for the good of Umno.

And moreover the amendments, he says, are not necessary as the Registrar of Societies “has already barred convicts from being office bearers”.

To be blunt about it, Umno members are divided into Team Zahid and Team Mohamad and that is why many like Agus feel that Ahmad Zahid’s comeback announcement on Sunday can lead to Umno splitting up.

And to him the timing could not have been more wrong as “Umno with Mohamad at the helm is showing signs of a revival”.

Political analyst Dr Sivamurugan Pandian agrees that “Umno will be divided as many see that Mohamad as ‘acting president’ has managed to change negative public perception on the party”.

The question now, according to Siva, is whether Ahmad Zahid’s return will “see members leaving the party and quitting or crossing over to the other parties as a sign of protest or if Ahmad Zahid can keep everything intact”.

Mohamad’s response to Ahmad Zahid’s comeback is that: “Alhamdulillah it’s good he has decided to return as there have been lots of gossip. So his return will kill off the gossips aimed at pitting leaders against each other”.

Yet the question is will the majority of Umno members, especially those who pressured Ahmad Zahid to step aside would now accept him as president capable of showing the party direction.

A political observer opines that Ahmad Zahid’s return will strengthen his and Najib’s hold on Umno  — which he says “is a necessary move as they must remain relevant in Umno as they want to be at the forefront of any political deals between Umno and Pakatan Harapan or Umno and PAS”.

But he feels “it is unlikely that Pakatan Harapan, and in particular Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia, which Dr Mahathir leads, will want to have anything to do with a Ahmad Zahid-led Umno”.

Then there is the recent officially established PAS–Umno pact. The focus will be on whether PAS grassroots will be 100% behind that move now that Umno is back being led by a president tainted by a record number of corruption charges.

Despite recent remarks by PAS leaders that Ahmad Zahid’s court cases will not derail the pact, the political observer feels that PAS members “will ask if such a cooperation will work against their own Islamic image”.

As Siva sees it, Ahmad Zahid should read signals from various platforms including social media after his comeback announcement and “make a decision if he wants to stick to his decision as announced or change to a more drastic decision”.

Mohsin Abdullah is contributing editor at The Edge. He has covered politics for over four decades.