Friday 29 Mar 2024
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The ruling BN is anticipated to benefit more from a lower turnout on polling day, but the outcome will vary by locality and depending on how voters react to the travel obstacle. It is not just voters moving by road that caught attention. WhatsApp is full of news for urban Klang Valley dwellers eyeing the skies. Tony Fernandes has a BN-themed Air Asia jet, a quick check of flights show most airlines are sold out of KL outbound flights. There was chatter about flight delay angst, and worries about road works near an airport.

The opposition coalition (Pakatan Harapan) has seen a sea change with the departure of PAS (while splinter group Amanah remains with Pakatan Harapan). However, the deregistration of the indefatigable ex-Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad’s Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia has surprisingly united his party and the ethnic-Chinese oriented Democratic Action Party under Parti Keadilan Rakyat’s flag and rallied supporters. So, the key contestants are BN, PKR (Pakatan Harapan) and PAS.

Sabah and Sarawak outstation voters would also face higher costs and time needed to return to vote. But East Malaysia is traditionally a stronghold for the BN, even as it faces a challenge in Sabah, where some say an ethnic Kadazan swing is possible.

Some political observers detect a potential win for BN in Kelantan and Terengganu. There, PAS has always depended on voters in the Klang Valley returning to keep the BN at bay. While PAS has split away from the opposition coalition and appears to act in coordination with BN on key policy issues, BN is set to fight PAS head-to-head. If so, PAS could be the most obvious big loser from a lower voter turnout. Elsewhere the calculus is complicated by multi-corner fights, reticence about voter reticence and redelineation. Some visitors come with expectations of a two-third seat majority victory for BN and the fall of Selangor to BN, but the stiff campaigning of GE14 is tilting expectations. 

 

The afternoon traffic view

Singapore-Johor traffic dipped overnight into the early morning. We’ve been monitoring Tuesday’s traffic between 10:30am and 5:30pm. The exodus from Singapore may have also begun - traffic outbound from Boon Lay in Singapore towards Senai Toll Plaza is now 23% above a typical rush house average; Traffic from Johor Bahru city centre to the Senai Toll Plaza is 129% of a typical day, the congestion is likely compounded by end of the workday in Singapore. Meanwhile, east and Pahang-bound routes are severely congested. Due to the lower capacity of the East Coast-bound highways (compared to the North-South Expressway), we expect severe congestion along these routes:

  • Gombak - Bentong route is now more than experiencing 100% more traffic than usual
  • Traffic along NKVE Toll to Rawang is up almost 90% from a typical day
  • Traffic inbound to Bentong from the toll plaza now 84% above typical traffic
  • Rawang - Bukit Beruntung live travel time is now 56% longer than usual

 

Traffic heading towards Kelantan and Terengganu is beginning to pick-up, with travel times 30% longer than usual:

  • Kuala Krai - Machang route is experiencing 50% longer travel time than usual; within Kuala Krai, traffic is up 48% from a normal day
  • Within Machang, traffic is up 30%, with Ketereh internal traffic now almost 40% above typical
  • Gerik - Belum route traffic is currently 15% above typical
  • Some traffic heading north from Gua Musang towards Kuala Krai is causing a 12% increase in travel time 

Along the North-South Expressway (NSE)’s northbound route, traffic is +47% of typical; From the Tapah Toll Plaza towards Simpang Pulai Toll, the current travel time is +37% of typical.

We expect that many voters are only just beginning their journeys - based on our observations, congestion is currently contained to the major expressways; traffic within most marginal constituencies and hot seats remain unchanged or are down to -5% lower than the typical day. Exceptions include traffic heading towards the hot seats of Ayer Hitam (+20%), Pasir Gudang (+20%), Seremban (+22%), Permatang Pauh (+15%), and Alor Setar (+11%). Ayer Hitam is the site of a three-corner fight between Wee Ka Siong (BN), Liew Chin Tong (PKR), and Hj Mardi Marwan (PAS). 

We are expecting congestion to worsen along the following routes heading out of the Klang Valley:

  • NKVE
  • KL-Seremban Highway
  • KL-Karak Highway
  • PLUS Highway

 

The view across the day at 5.30pm

From among route data set, those that are expressways and major arteries are summarised below from 830pm on Monday, May 7, 2018, and the standout on increased journey-time is from Selangor to Pahang.

 

Undi Traffic Dashboard

Traffic Situation on Major Routes for Outstation Voters
Pick-up in traffic across-the-board through Tuesday (10.30am to 5.30pm), with rise in the Klang Valley south-north axis and to Ipoh, and also from Singapore and then toward the East Coast.

Description: This summary provides insight into the traffic status for major long-distance routes for outstation voters and also the cross-Klang Valley situation. This describes when and how (journey time-wise) traffic builds up. For the time period described, the live (or current) journey time is compared to the typical (or normal) journey time and presented as a %. Source: Estimates from Google.

 

Average Traffic Situation By Coalition-Party Across Selected Hot & Marginal Seats
PAS marginal seats have seen an overall +6% in journey-time versus typical. Next up are BN marginals and hot seats. 

Description: This summary provides insight into when and how (journey time-wise) traffic builds up for outstation voters going to selected marginal constituencies (won with a narrow <5% margin of victory in GE13) and hot seats contested by big name politicians. Marginal-hot seats combine both criteria. 
Note: Based on GE13 outcomes. GE14 has redelineation which will also have an impact. Traffic to/in Klang Valley seats are not reviewed as this study focuses on outstation voter moves. This description of journey times to and/or within constituencies comprises 2 or 3 routes each. For the time period shown, the live (or current) journey time is compared to the typical (or normal) journey time and presented as a %. The aggregate ratios are based on simple averages. Source: Estimates from Google. 

 

Seats with High Traffic Activity 
Big increases (over 30% above normal or typical) at Ketereh, Machang, Tebrau, Pulai, AYer Hitam and Bentong; BN marginal and hot seats. And for PAS, Kuala Krai sees a large traffic increase of almost 50% above typical, and things were sedately active at Permatang Paul and Seremban at over 15% increase.

Description: This summary describes when and how (journey time-wise) traffic builds up for outstation voters going to selected marginal constituencies (won with a narrow <5% margin of victory in GE13) and hot seats contested by big name politicians.
Note: The marginal and hot seats for the key coalition-parties are ranked from highest traffic activity (journey time build-up) to lowest and the busiest seats are presented. This description of journey times to and/or within constituencies comprises 2 or 3 routes each. For the time period shown, the live (or current) journey time is compared to the typical (or normal) journey time and presented as a %. The aggregate ratios are based on simple averages. Source: Estimates from Google.

Key finding: Looking at about 200 routes across Peninsular Malaysia, the activity increase was highest for Selangor-Pahang at +111% (more than doubling) and Negeri Sembilan - Selangor plus Selangor routes at +21%. In the high teens of journey-time change were KL-Selangor, Singapore-Johor and Kelantan routes. This was led earlier, by traffic building up for Bentong, Tebrau and Raub. 

Khor Yu Leng is an independent geo-data economist, assisted by Jeamme Chia. This data study is brought to you in collaboration with The Edge

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