This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on February 1, 2021 - February 7, 2021

EVEN though the number of new Covid-19 cases reached a fresh record high of 5,725 last Friday (Jan 29) — double the seven-day moving average barely a fortnight ago and more than triple that at the start of the year — Malaysia seems inclined to end the Movement Control Order 2.0 (MCO 2.0) or at least allow more economic activities to take place by Feb 4. That is because the livelihoods of millions are at risk of being lost if restrictions are prolonged.

On Jan 25, Ministry of Health (MoH) director-general Tan Sri Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah said the government had no intention of extending the MCO beyond Feb 4, allaying fears of possible stricter lockdown measures should new cases continue to rise. The following day, Senior Minister (Security Cluster) Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob pointed out that another total lockdown could risk 2.8 million people losing their jobs and hurt the incomes of another 2.5 million workers. Then, on Jan 29, Finance Minister Tengku Datuk Seri Zafrul Aziz also ruled out another total lockdown of the economy, telling CNBC that the national Covid-19 vaccination programme and the recently announced RM15 billion Permai assistance package would help the country’s economy bounce back from last year’s slump.

It is not just livelihoods but lives that are at stake: With 31% of Malaysia’s 203,933 confirmed Covid-19 cases as well as the 733 related deaths as at Jan 29 happening in the first 17 days of MCO 2.0, which began on Jan 13, much is riding on Malaysia’s getting enough vaccines delivered quickly to fulfil its aim to inoculate 75,000 people a day so that 27 million people, or about 80% of the population, can be vaccinated within a year starting from early March.

So far, we can be fairly certain that one million doses of Pfizer-BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine is expected to reach Malaysia by end-February to kick off phase one of the country’s vaccination programme, aimed at protecting frontliners as the first step towards protecting the most vulnerable to the coronavirus, breaking the chain of infections and building herd immunity.

So far, Malaysia has detailed a delivery timeline for 12.8 million doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine (BNT162b2), which can cover 6.4 million people, or 20% of the population, with two doses each. The first batch of one million doses (500,000 people at two doses each) is slated for arrival by end-February, with 1.7 million doses expected to arrive in 2Q2021, 5.8 million in 3Q2021 and 4.3 million in 4Q2021.

The government, which on Jan 11 said it was buying another 12.2 million doses from Pfizer-BioNTech to boost coverage to 39% of the population (12.5 million people with 25 million doses), has not said when the other vaccines for 19% of the population from Pfizer-BioNTech are slated to arrive.

Another 6.4 million doses of the vaccine (AZD1222) from AstraZeneca-Oxford University is to arrive in Malaysia “in the first half of 2021”, AstraZeneca Malaysia country president Dr Sanjeev Kumar Panchal reportedly said on Dec 23. This is enough for about 10% of the population.

On Jan 26, MoH announced the procurement of another 18.4 million doses of vaccine from Pharmaniaga Lifescience Sdn Bhd and Duopharma (M) Sdn Bhd to cover 28.75% of the population.

Pharmaniaga is to supply 12 million doses (for six million people, or 18.75% of Malaysians) of the CoronaVac Covid-19 vaccine, manufactured by China’s Sinovac Lifesciences Co Ltd. Duopharma will supply 6.4 million doses (for 3.2 million people, or about 10% of Malaysians) of the Sputnik V vaccine produced by Russia’s Gamaleya Research Institute of Epidemiology and Microbiology. Delivery of the vaccines will come “in stages” starting at end-March from Duopharma and starting in April from Pharmaniaga, according to MoH’s statement, which provided no detailed timeline on vaccine arrival.

Malaysia agreed to fork out US$22.656 million (RM94.08 million) to join the World Health Organization-backed Covid-19 Vaccines Global Access (Covax) facility, which guarantees vaccine coverage for 20% of the population of participating countries, Science, Technology and Innovation Minister Khairy Jamaluddin told parliament on Nov 19.

Going by the headline numbers alone, Malaysia seems to have purchased enough vaccines to cover at least 90% of the population (see Table 1 on vaccine purchases).

Securing timely delivery for the purchases will be the next challenge, however, going by newsflow from the EU over vaccine-related delays.

Lacking details on when and how many doses of Covid-19 vaccines will be available here, it is difficult for third parties such as The Edge to gauge whether Malaysia’s target to inoculate at least 80% of the population within a year (by March 2022) or as early as year-end to attain herd immunity is achievable. Clarity on supply delivery and timely communication to the public and investors would certainly help shore up confidence.

If indeed 8 in 10 Malaysians are willing to be vaccinated — as found by The Edge’s Covid-19 vaccine online poll, which received 2,013 responses between Jan 15 and 28 — there is hope that the national vaccination plan will go well. Only 8.8% of respondents did not want the vaccine — including those who didn’t think they would need it — while 11.8% had yet to make up their minds.

The poll results — which are more optimistic than the 67% receptiveness towards a vaccine of another online survey of 212,000 respondents recently cited by Health Minister Datuk Seri Dr Adham Baba — may well be skewed towards the urban and educated populace, given The Edge’s reach, with 77% of respondents in the Klang Valley aged below 50. About 62% were men, the poll data shows. Still, every state was represented in the poll, with responses ranging from 4 to 930 (see “At least half of Malaysians want Covid-19 vaccine now, The Edge poll finds” on Page 12).

With the Klang Valley accounting for 47% of the 62,400 Covid-19 cases the country has added since the start of MCO 2.0, the willingness of the populace to be inoculated is still positive.

Those who are still sceptical may well take comfort from the fact that Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong received his second dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine on Jan 29, three weeks after the first dose on Jan 8. Indonesia’s President Joko Widodo also took his first jab of China-made Sinovac Biotech’s vaccine on live telecast on Jan 13 and the second dose on Jan 27.

Theirs are among the 113,050 doses and 373,786 doses of Covid-19 vaccine that have been administered in Singapore and Indonesia respectively, according to official data collected by research and data outfit Our World in Data. At the time of writing, more than 82 million doses of vaccines had been administered worldwide, with Israel achieving the highest coverage per capita globally of 50.2% versus Singapore’s 1.93% and Indonesia’s 0.14%, the data shows.

In Malaysia, the fact that Moody’s Investor Service decided to affirm the country’s sovereign rating at A3, with a stable outlook, on Jan 28 must have been a relief to feathers ruffled by Fitch Ratings’ Dec 4 decision to downgrade Malaysia’s rating to BBB+ — the country’s first downgrade since the 1997/98 Asian financial crisis.

“Moving forward, Malaysia’s economic recovery will be driven by the efficacy of its public healthcare system, which has been further reinforced through the Permai assistance package,” Zafrul said in a Jan 28 statement in response to Moody’s decision, which also mentioned the national vaccination programme.

Last Friday, he told CNBC that despite MCO 2.0, Malaysia continued to maintain its fiscal deficit target of 5.4% of GDP as well as its 2021 GDP growth forecast of 6.5% and 7.5%, which would beat the 5.5% at which the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects the global economy to expand this year — 0.3% higher than its forecast last October — before moderating to 4.2% in 2022.

Much depends, however, on “the outcome of this race between a mutating virus and vaccines to end this pandemic, and on the ability of policies to provide effective support until that happens. There remains tremendous uncertainty and prospects vary greatly across countries”, IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath said in a Jan 26 blog post, noting that more than 150 economies are expected to have per capita incomes that are below 2019 levels this year.

Malaysia needs to play its cards well amid these tough times or risk falling further behind as others race ahead.

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