This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on October 17, 2022 - October 23, 2022

READY or not, the 15th general election is upon us. Here, we review some key personalities to watch in the snap polls, and what three political analysts — Prof Datuk Dr Shamsul Amri Baharuddin of Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Prof Dr Sivamurugan Pandian of Universiti Sains Malaysia and Azmi Hassan of Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research (NASR) — have to say about them.

The names include veterans due to their leadership positions, which make them possible prime minister candidates if their parties come to power. Some are young, new and promising. Others are forces to be reckoned with whether they actually get to contest or not, while some are comeback kids who were once highly popular. Then, there are those accused of betrayal, yet who may still wield considerable influence.

(1) Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad

Not only was he the longest-serving PM, he is also the only person on this list who has held the post twice. Although the 97-year-old has been dismissed by some as no longer relevant — including Shamsul, who has said the nonagenarian just could not retire, though support for him has faded — he still makes news. But Sivamurugan points out that Mahathir was said to be irrelevant when parliament was dissolved for GE14 over three years ago. Yet, he surprised everyone by leading the Pakatan Harapan coalition to Putrajaya, and eventually becoming the PM again.

“I don’t think he’s no longer relevant. He is a thinking politician, a master strategist. He knows what he is doing, why he wants to form Gerakan Tanah Air. It could be that he wants to make GTA the kingmaker, when the other coalitions can’t secure a majority,” says Sivamurugan.

(2) Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob

The “coincidental” ninth PM of Malaysia, who got to where he was because he was the amiable, acceptable choice to all parties under the alignment of Barisan Nasional with the Bersatu-led Perikatan Nasional. This was following the political crisis that came to the fore after the resignation of Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin as PM. He was also kept in power by the Pakatan Harapan opposition via a historic pact they made with his administration in 2021 — the “Political Transformation and Stability” memorandum of understanding (MoU) — to prioritise the nation’s Covid-19 response at the height of the pandemic. The “poster boy of Umno” as Sivamurugan describes him, the Bera MP gained prominence during the government’s fight against the pandemic — first as a Senior Minister for Security under Muhyiddin’s PN government, and later when he was briefly made the deputy PM. And while the Umno vice-president has been regarded as largely non-threatening to those who wield the real power in Umno, he showed there might be more to him than meets the eye when he led a faction of Umno to continue supporting Muhyiddin after the party withdrew its support for him.

“Perceived by many friends and foes as weak, only he knows his strength — hence the Sept 13, 2021 MoU, which was supported by both his enemies and friends,” says Shamsul.

(3) Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim

The PM-in-waiting for the longest time — first in the 1990s when he was deputy PM to Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad, and again when the Pakatan Harapan coalition was in power in 2018-2020 — it seems Anwar has had more luck being the Opposition Leader, which he was from 2008 to 2015, and again after the collapse of the PH government in 2020.

In the first round, he managed to bring together DAP and PAS to form the informal Pakatan Rakyat coalition with PKR. Prior to GE14, and even though still in prison then for his second sodomy conviction, Anwar rejoined his former nemesis Mahathir and formed Pakatan Harapan, which managed to wrestle the government from BN in the 2018 polls. Though the plan was for Anwar — who later secured a pardon from the King and went on to win the Port Dickson seat — to take over as PM from Mahathir, that never materialised and the PH government collapsed when Bersatu withdrew from the coalition. Shamsul thinks GE15 might just herald Anwar’s “last hurrah as an MP and final attempt to be PM. He could last longer than Mahathir, his great friend/greater enemy”.

(4) Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin

The man who broke ranks with Datuk Seri Najib Razak over the 1MDB scandal, set up a new party with Mahathir, then turned his back on Mahathir to get to the prime ministership. He was to resign from the post 17 months later, making him the shortest-serving PM amid persistent squabbling in his Perikatan Nasional coalition. But, don’t write him off just yet, Sivamurugan says. For the Bersatu president still holds enough sway in the cabinet to get a dozen ministers to send a letter of protest to the palace against holding the general election this year. “And so far, he is still able to convince PAS to remain with PN, though PAS is silent on its support on who will be PM,” Sivamurugan notes.

(5) Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi

There has been speculation for several months now that Ahmad Zahid — who is still facing 47 graft charges for funds linked to the charitable foundation Yayasan Akalbudi, following his acquittal of all 40 graft charges in the Foreign Visa System (VLN) case — may choose not to contest this election for the sake of the party. Instead, he might field his daughter, Nurul Hidayah, according to some sources.

“Contest or not, he is the voice of authority and power in Umno, and the one who finalises the list of candidates for BN. He took over the presidency when Umno was at its weakest point after BN’s defeat in 2018, and has managed to hold the party together since,” Sivamurugan says. According to Shamsul, “His real power lies elsewhere. Without his endorsement, one can’t contest in the election on Umno’s ticket, theoretically, including Ismail Sabri.”

(6) Datuk Seri Mohamad Hasan

While Ismail is the poster boy of Umno, Hasan is the one who has been moving around and strategising, says Sivamurugan. “From helping with the selection of candidates, to studying the geography and demography of the constituencies, he’s one of the prominent leaders that Umno has now. Don’t forget, he was also managing director of Cycle and Carriage (Bintang Bhd) at one point in time. He knows to think beyond present politicking, for the survival of the party in the future,” says Sivamurugan, referring to the 10 years Hasan spent in the company in 1994 to 2004. Some quarters even think the former Negeri Sembilan Menteri Besar, who is said to be eyeing the Rembau parliamentary seat, might be a possible PM candidate if BN takes back Putrajaya. “I said it was time for me to contest at the parliamentary level. As to which constituency, that’s up to me, I’m deputy president,” Hasan reportedly told the press in early September.

(7) Datuk Seri Najib Razak

He has been imprisoned for 12 years for corruption and power abuse over funds belonging to SRC International Sdn Bhd — formerly a subsidiary of (now-defunct) 1Malaysia Development Bhd — yet his influence hasn’t abated. Staunch supporters are expecting a royal pardon anytime for the former prime minister. So much so that the Pekan Umno division has said it would stick to naming the jailed Najib as a potential candidate for GE15. According to the division’s deputy head Zamri Ramly, Najib, who has been the Pekan MP since 1976 — except for one term from 1982-1986 when he was the Pahang MB — is among five candidates nominated by the division for the parliamentary seat.

“Just like how KJ (Khairy Jamaluddin) rebranded himself after his father-in-law lost power, Najib has managed to turn things around for himself and recapture support and popularity under his “Bossku” campaign. Not only that, while he held no positions of power in Umno since 2018, he still controls the party and has its support,” says Sivamurugan. To Shamsul, “His ambition transcends the prison wall, and his intense motivation moves the Bossku movement countrywide ... like Mahathir, he wants to be PM again.”

(8) Datuk Seri Mohd Shafie Apdal

Once considered a PM candidate for the PH coalition, the Parti Warisan president has not been very willing to work with DAP and PKR at the state levels lately, and even claimed that PH had failed to protect Sabahans’ interests when they were in power, Sivamurugan says. Wielding considerable influence in Sabah, Shafie has said that both Sabah and Sarawak could leverage their “kingmaker” status and push for a different political landscape for the country.

When met by the press last week, he indicated that he agreed with Sarawak deputy premier Datuk Seri Dr Sim Kui Hian that no single party would be able to win GE15 comfortably in the present political situation, and that whoever wants to form the federal government would need to turn to Sabah and Sarawak.

“I agree with that view because we have 31 parliamentary seats there (in Sarawak), and 25 here (in Sabah). If we are smart not to be controlled or dictated by those in Kuala Lumpur, we will call the shots. We have to set a different kind of political landscape in this country,” Shafie was quoted as saying.

(9) Tan Sri Abdul Hadi Awang

Room must be made for Hadi, the all-powerful PAS president who calls all the shots in the party, whose orders are regarded almost as “wahyu” (revelations), as Sivamurugan puts it. But it is not certain if he still wants to stand in Marang or make way for the Menteri Besar Ahmad Yaakob or his political secretary Dr Ahmad Samsuri Mohktar, says Sivamurugan. Notwithstanding that, his influence is not to be taken lightly, nor PAS’ possible status as the ultimate kingmaker, says Azmi.

“I believe BN will most likely garner the most parliament seats this GE15, but not enough to form the government. So, it will need GPS in Sarawak or GRS in Sabah. Still, the majority may not be strong enough and they will need an ally in the peninsula. That possible ally is PAS,” says Azmi.

(10) Rafizi Ramli

Smart and popular with the public, Rafizi is making a comeback to active politics having sat on the sidelines for the last three years after he contested for — and lost — the PKR deputy presidency to Datuk Seri Azmin Ali in November 2018, with a very narrow margin. And the party support for the comeback kid in the party has been very strong, as he contested against Saifuddin Nasution Ismail and won the deputy presidency in May.

“He is moving around with Nurul Izzah (Anwar) nationwide to garner support from the Malays and first-time voters. He has made his target market clear. It will be interesting to see if he can convince them to cast their votes for PKR again,” says Sivamurugan.

Meanwhile, Shamsul likens Rafizi to a “noisy politician on a lorry”. “Now he is on a fixed stage gathering data. Can it become a platform for him to jump for something bigger?”

(11) Nurul Izzah Anwar

Given the nickname of Reformasi Princess by her supporters, this eldest daughter of Anwar is among the names to watch as she is one of the most promising women leaders, and a thinking politician, says Sivamurugan. She was hailed by fellow lawmaker Khairy (Jamaluddin) as “an exemplary MP and worthy opponent”, when she resigned her PKR vice-presidency in 2018 amid allegations of nepotism and favouritism. Incidentally, Khairy also predicted she would be back when the country is ready for a generational change in politics, and that it would be a “terrible waste if she doesn’t return to frontline politics”.

(12) Khairy Jamaluddin

“A man of his own mind, willing to be different. Capable leader, effective minister, [and] once touted to be a PM candidate but the road is too long and winding,” Shamsul says of Khairy. Indeed, smart and popular with the public, Khairy is also one of the few young Umno leaders who are well-liked by both Malays and non-Malays.

“He has rebranded himself very well after Pak Lah’s (Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi) regime. But how will he make that popularity work for him in the party as well? He is an asset, yet he continues to have to ask for a seat. Maybe he backed the wrong camp,” Sivamurugan says wryly.

Khairy has said he had been asked not to defend his seat for Rembau — where he has been MP since 2008 — but to give way to Mohamad Hasan instead.

“It’ll be interesting to see where he will contest or if he will even be allowed to contest,” says Azmi of NASR. “It has been said he would contest in Putrajaya, but whether that Umno division will accept him or not is something else. He is an asset for Umno, so if he contests a very unsafe seat, like Seremban or Rasah, that’ll be suicidal and a waste,” says Azmi.

(13) Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman

Active and popular on social media platforms like Instagram and TikTok, the former Bersatu Youth chief-turned-co-founder of Malaysian United Democratic Alliance (Muda) is a heart-throb of both Muda and non-Muda females, says Shamsul. Once seen as the blue-eyed boy of Mahathir, Syed Saddiq became the youngest minister in Mahathir’s cabinet at the age of 25. Having parted ways with Mahathir and Bersatu following the collapse of PH, he faces a corruption case involving Bersatu Youth funds during his time as its chief, which he has slammed as political persecution.

“He is very active on social media, but it remains to be seen whether he can translate that to actual votes and retain his Muar seat. So far, it appears he has the charisma to sustain his new party. It will be interesting to see if he can draw out the young voters who don’t understand or like politics, but are fond of young leaders like him. But he should be careful about making Muda into another PKR, which focuses primarily on Anwar,” says Sivamurugan.

(14) Tengku Datuk Seri Zafrul Abdul Aziz

Tengku Zafrul, with his corporate experience as a banker and his time as a cabinet minister, stands out as not just a newbie, but a popular one with a professional image. He is expected to contest under the Umno ticket.

“The problem is that Umno is very strict in its hierarchy. Whoever wants to be the candidate for the general election will need to have active participation in the division level, at least. We know members of his family are well-known Umno supporters, but Tengku Zafrul himself, besides being a minister, is not that active in the party. It has been said that he would be contesting in Kuala Selangor. It’ll be interesting to see the acceptance of voters — especially from Umno — towards him, since an Umno candidate coming from the outside is very rare. Most have to start from the bottom and work their way up in the party in order to be a candidate,” says Azmi. Meanwhile, Shamsul says, “Royalty and money don’t guarantee political success. But having money to fund the campaign is a great advantage. He is too new in politics, his advantage may end just there.”

(15) Anthony Loke Siew Fook

Moderate, likeable and approachable — these are some of the common adjectives that political analysts have used to describe Loke, the DAP secretary-general. A third-term parliamentarian, the incumbent Seremban MP speaks better Malay than Mandarin or English.

“He represents the new breed in DAP. This kind of person will be able to pacify those who still hold on to the belief that DAP is ‘anti-Malay’,” says Sivamurugan.

This is something that his predecessor Lim Guan Eng did not manage to completely abolish, despite getting jailed for criticising the then-Melaka government for not acting against its chief minister at the time — Tan Sri Abdul Rahim Thamby Chik — who was investigated for statutory rape of a young Malay girl in 1994. The case was dropped due to lack of evidence.

“Not everyone remembers that anymore … but Loke made an impression during his time as transport minister,” says Sivamurugan.

Shamsul points out that Loke is not from a “powerful dynasty, like Lim Kit Siang and his kin”. “(And) Negeri Sembilan is not Penang or Selangor. However, he shall get the Chinese voters’ support because the voters have no choice,” he adds.

Other than these 15 names, political observers are interested in how those who have been branded “frogs” and “traitors” — personalities who have switched allegiances — are likely to perform. Among the notable names brought up were Datuk Seri Azmin Ali and his former party mate Datuk Zuraida Kamaruddin, both previously with PKR but jumped to Bersatu. Zuraida later left Bersatu and joined Parti Bangsa Malaysia (PBM), of which she was named its president earlier this month. Aside from Zuraida, there are five other elected MPs in PBM, namely: Datuk Larry Sng Wei Shein (Julau), Steven Choong Shiau Yoon (Tebrau), Mohammadin Ketapi (Lahad Datu), Datuk Dr Xavier Jayakumar (Kuala Langat) and Datuk Seri Dr Santhara Kumar (Segamat).

“It’ll be very interesting to see whether they defend the seats they originally won on another party’s ticket, or whether they move on to other seats, and voter acceptance for these kinds of candidates. The voting pattern will be an interesting one,” says Azmi, adding that the recent Melaka state election has shown that some candidates ended up paying the price for party hopping, like former chief minister Idris Haron. Idris, who won the Tangga Batu parliamentary seat and the Sungai Udang state seat under Umno in the 2013 and 2018 general elections, joined PKR in the 2021 Melaka state election and lost to a rival from his former party.

“These frogs, as we call them, and who their challengers will be, will be keenly watched,” Azmi remarks, adding that Anwar, for example, has said he will consider contesting in a seat held by a “traitor” of PKR and PH, such as Gombak (Azmin’s constituency).

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