This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily on March 4, 2019
KUALA LUMPUR: Semenyih ought to be ready to welcome Datin Seri Rosmah Mansor soonest if former premier Datuk Seri Najib Razak makes good his promise.
Najib had said this prior to the Semenyih by-election in response to taunts by PKR leader, Datuk Seri Azmin Ali. Azmin, noticing the conspicuous absence of Rosmah, had rubbed it in, asking why Najib was campaigning without the company of his other half.
But Najib will not be hiding under the table. A day before polling he had said he would do so should Barisan Nasional (BN) were to lose.
The BN coalition or what remains of it got back Semenyih which it lost 10 months ago in the 14th general election. Its candidate Zakaria Hanafi convincingly beat Pakatan Harapan’s Aiman Zainal, Nik Aziz Afiq Abdul from PSM and independent candidate Kuan Chee Hong.
The voter turnout was good and the majority of them were Malays. That would mean the Malays, most of them anyway, voted for BN. But to me that does not suggest the community has forgotten about the kleptocracy as some people say. Alright, some Malays, to a certain extent.
What it suggests is obviously that a substantial number of Malays believe their race and Islam are under siege since Pakatan came into power.
Explain all you want but it is clear many Malays are taken in by remarks like that made by BN secretary general Datuk Seri Nazri Aziz, racist though it might be, that non-Malays should not be made attorney general, chief justice and even finance minister as “they do not take an oath upon the Quran”.
And even hurtful remarks by Selangor Umno leader Datuk Satim Diman that the death of the Pakatan representative, which led to the by-election being held, is “a sign from Allah” that somehow contributed to the sway in Malay support.
Not forgetting the reminders by PAS leaders that Muslims are duty-bound to help parties with the so-called Islamic agenda.
Demonstrations at various places, held a day before the by-election protesting against the Pakatan government for allegedly not taking enough action against people who insult Prophet Muhammad also helped the Umno/BN cause in Semenyih.
Definitely BN has a lot to thank PAS for. Apart from the PAS machinery being hard at work, people who voted for PAS in previous elections whole-heartedly voted for the Umno candidate this time.
It is a given that Umno-PAS cooperation will be strengthened in the coming Rantau by-election. This is despite the mess the party is in with regards to Sarawak Report and the compensation paid to Clare Rewcastle-Brown as well as allegations of cooperation and what not. In fact the pact will continue to be beefed up right up to GE15.
But to blame the Pakatan defeat on racial and religious sentiments and the voting trend of the Malays would not be entirely right. Pakatan must take the blame for its mistakes too.
Long before the by-election, Pakatan supporters openly expressed hope that the coalition would lose “so that it will not be arrogant”. Whether one agrees that Pakatan has been arrogant or not is another matter. The fact is that is how they are perceived by people who claimed to have voted for them in May last year.
True, the ones who told me this are not Semenyih voters. But I think it would not be wrong to say that sentiment is shared by Pakatan supporters outside Semenyih as well.
According to political analyst Dr Sivamuguran Pandian, apart from issues related to ethnicity and religion, national issues “especially promises not fulfilled might have influenced voters”.
However, says Siva, the Pakatan defeat “cannot be taken as a referendum but a signal to Pakatan to come out from the comfort zone”.
A sort of a wake-up call, like most Pakatan supporters are saying.
While Siva has a point in saying the defeat should not be seen as a referendum, I would say by-elections now are not viewed by people lightly, that is as having little impact, as they cannot result in a change of governments.
While in the past, issues were mostly about local needs and concerns (thus voting would be for the government of the day), now it can be seen as sending strong messages to the powers-that-be as well as signals to voters nationwide.
In this case as Siva sees it, the win for BN “gives them moral legitimacy”. And if I may add BN is already talking of taking back power in GE15 together with PAS.
A bit premature perhaps or wishful thinking but that is how confident they are now. At least that’s what they want to portray.
For Pakatan it would be good for them admit that Bersatu is a weak link and that a lot remains to be done. The party is seen as being over-dependent on Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad.
And Amanah the party, which is supposed to check the extremism of PAS with its sobre and moderate Islamic credentials, has not been successful thus far.
With the Umno–Pas cooperation seen as gaining momentum and race and religious rhetorics set to continue being played to frightening heights, Amanah must step up its game, stand up and be counted.
“The war for Malay support will continue as Pakatan should see this as one of the main reasons for their loss,” says Siva.
Hopefully, in seeking community support, it does not try to be more “Malay” than Umno and more “Islamic” than PAS.
Mohsin Abdullah is contributing editor at The Edge. He has covered politics for over four decades.