Friday 29 Mar 2024
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This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on November 14, 2022 - November 20, 2022

DAP deputy secretary-general Liew Chin Tong has a history of taking on tough fights in general elections. This time, however, he is contesting in a relatively safe seat — the Iskandar Puteri constituency in Johor.

Liew, who is the election director for his party, is not the incumbent in Iskandar Puteri, which DAP veteran Lim Kit Siang, who has announced his retirement, won in the last two elections.

For Liew, the 15th general election (GE15) offers a respite, unlike in the past three general elections in which he contested, taking on bigwigs from the government coalition.

Critics say, however, that he should not be contesting in GE15 because he won a seat in the Johor state polls in March and the party has a “one person, one seat” policy.

Liew cites election strategy to explain when the rule applies.

“As much as we can, we try to do so. At that point of time, the national leadership felt that I should contest a state seat during the state election.

“There was a need for leadership during a tough election — supporters were not very keen, turnout was low. Those were the circumstances in which I was asked to contest in the state seat to provide leadership, which I complied with,” he says.

In the past, Iskandar Puteri, formerly known as Gelang Patah, was a hotly contested seat. Kit Siang led a daring foray into Umno’s “fortress” and won the seat with a convincing 15,000-vote majority against the then Johor menteri besar Datuk Abdul Ghani Othman in GE13. That victory helped the opposition party gain a foothold in the southern state, which is regarded as the birthplace of Umno and an MCA stronghold.

Liew himself is no stranger to epic election contests, having unseated two Barisan Nasional (BN) heavyweights — Gerakan secretary-general Chia Kwang Chye for Bukit Bendera in GE12 and MCA leader Datuk Dr Hou Kok Chung for Kluang in GE13. In GE14, he lost by 303 votes to MCA president Datuk Seri Wee Ka Siong in the latter’s stronghold of Ayer Hitam. As a saving grace, Liew, who is Johor DAP chief, won the Perling state assembly seat in a snap poll in March this year.

“In 2018, there were very few people who believed that Johor was the epicentre, where we had a chance to win 15 seats, but that needed a push. So, everyone knows that it was a ‘do-or-die’ battle.

“The end-result was that we won 18 [seats], and even though I did not win, PH (Pakatan Harapan) won 18 seats, out of 26 seats in Johor,” he recalls.

Liew sees the upcoming GE15 as another “do-or-die” battle for PH. To get back into power, the coalition needs to capture at least 80 seats, although the tailwinds do not seem to be as strong as in the previous national polls.

In a candid interview at the DAP headquarters in Pudu, Kuala Lumpur, Liew acknowledges that PH could be a “permanent opposition” group over the next 10 to 15 years if the coalition secures fewer than 60 seats in the Dewan Rakyat.

An analysis of the past three general elections shows that PH should be able to win 55 to 60 seats — these are constituencies in which PH has been the incumbent at least twice, he says.

“But the real challenge is how to get to 80 [seats]. Because, with 60, everyone else can gang up and isolate us, and we will be a permanent opposition for the next 10 years,” says Liew.

On whether DAP will be able to defend the 42 seats, including nine in Sarawak and three in Sabah that it won in GE14, Liew is holding his cards close to his chest. It is noteworthy that he correctly predicted the political tsunami that led to the downfall of the BN administration.

When parliament was dissolved on Oct 10, PH had 90 seats in hand. This was a big drop compared to right after GE14, when it had more than 120 seats on its side out of 222 in parliament. Then came the major defection in February 2020, known as the Sheraton Move, which led to an extended bout of horse-trading among MPs and two changes in government.

“If PH wins 60, 80 and 100 seats [in GE15], each [situation] will bring a totally different scenario,” says Liew, the former deputy defence minister in the PH government.

With 80 of 222 seats in the parliament’s lower house, Liew says, PH would be a force that no other political bloc can ignore in parliament. “We may not be able to form a government if everyone manages to have a deal, but 80 means you have more than one-third.”

With 80 seats in hand, the coalition would be able to prevent any unilateral amendments to the Federal Constitution by any political bloc, as the law requires at least two-thirds majority support in the Dewan Rakyat for such changes.

Liew is confident that PH stands a good chance of winning 80 seats if two conditions are fulfilled — first, that BN’s Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi remains in the contest in GE15 and defends the Bagan Datuk parliamentary seat and, second, that the voter turnout rate is above 75%.

Umno president Ahmad Zahid is in a four-cornered fight for the Bagan Datuk seat.

The voter turnout rate is a question mark. There are 21.17 million eligible voters, one-third of whom are first-time voters. To achieve a 75% turnout rate, 15.88 million Malaysians would have to cast their votes on Nov 19. At least 12.4 million, or 83% of 14.9 million eligible voters, turned up to vote at GE14.

Liew does not think the turnout rates in the state elections in Melaka and Johor, which were relatively low at 65.85% and 54.92% respectively, are a good yardstick for the upcoming election.

“The entire BN narrative was trying to recreate the past, that only BN can guarantee stability. It may work to a certain extent if Umno is perceived to be the winner, but it is not now. Now, it is clearer by the day that Umno is not necessarily winning.

“When parliament was dissolved, Umno was telling people that they would have 65 seats in the peninsula and, with Sabah and Sarawak, they would be at 105, and they can partner with anyone [to] reach 112. Three weeks after the dissolution [of parliament], I think it is clear to many observers, Umno is not getting 65,” he says.

Liew acknowledges that Malaysians, particularly the business community, are yearning for political stability after several upheavals since the Sheraton Move in 2020. The general grouse is that uncertainties in policy direction as a result of three changes in government have dragged down the business momentum.

Nevertheless, he points out, structural reforms are necessary to ensure political stability. Among these changes is an inclusive representative structure that allows members of parliament, including those in the opposition, to play a constructive role in both the executive and legislative branches.

As for the cabinet, Liew says a component party that holds a major bloc of seats, but is not holding the prime minister’s post, should be given equitable representation in the cabinet. “[They] must be assured that they have a say in the cabinet, so that they won’t harbour any hope of replacing the PM,” he says.

“We defeated a one-party state. Now, we are supposed to move towards constructing a new democracy. We should not be returning to a one-party state or the PM deciding everything,” he asserts.

The new government will need to ensure equal allocations for the opposition and provide access to parliamentary committees.

“[The opposition] will have access to policymaking, so that they know that, in the opposition, they don’t have to conspire to change the government every now and then.

“We need this sort of structural commitment when we form the government. We may be like European states, where we have to constantly negotiate the coalition agreement. We may need to know what the core policies are that we want to establish from day one — then you will have stability, because the ground rules, the traffic rules, are set,” says Liew.

 

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