This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on May 25, 2020 - May 31, 2020

SOME political analysts say Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s political future looks bleak, particularly now that the Registrar of Societies (RoS) has said he is no longer the Bersatu chairman. Yet the analysts are not prepared to say that it is the final curtain, which is not surprising as many believe the 94-year-old leader is not someone who can be ruled out easily.

At least one analyst says if one were to believe that a cat has nine lives, then Mahathir has nine political lives. Nevertheless, political analysts whom The Malaysian Insight spoke to pointed out that the former prime minister is left with few options after the RoS finding.

They told the news portal that Mahathir “seemed to have lost his battle with Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin for control over Bersatu and he will now rely on internal elections to see if he has enough support to wrest back the party he founded”.

Interestingly, Bersatu election committee chairman Tan Sri Syed Hamid Albar is on record as saying that Mahathir’s position as party chairman will be determined once the party election concludes after June 30.

But what about the RoS letter saying that Mahathir is no longer chairman? As Syed Hamid sees it, “the Registrar of Societies is talking about his position as the current chairman but the election process will determine the future positions in the leadership. It is up to the party leadership to decide after June 30”.

However, when nominations for party elections closed in March, Bersatu announced that Mahathir was unopposed as chairman. So, what’s there to decide come June 30 as far as the chairmanship is concerned? Furthermore, candidates for other positions have been accepted, thus changes cannot be made anymore.

For good measure, Syed Hamid was later quoted by Sin Chew Daily as reaffirming the RoS’ decision that Mahathir is not the Bersatu chairman. He said Mahathir’s second tenure as party chairman was not effective until the results of the party elections were announced.

Incidentally, Mahathir is disputing the RoS letter. And some observers say they will not be surprised if the issue goes all the way to court, which they say will be a long-drawn-out battle.

It is a no-brainer that Muhyiddin and Co need to rid Bersatu of Mahathir (and his followers). The party chairman can frustrate the president and he has the party constitution on his side on that score. So, Mahathir needs to remain in Bersatu as chairman to weigh against Muhyiddin.

However, supreme council member Wan Saiful Wan Jan, who is a staunch supporter of Muhyiddin, also cited the party constitution when saying that Bersatu members of parliament (MPs) who sat in the opposition benches during last Monday’s parliament session should automatically lose their membership in the party. And that was what Mahathir did, together with the Bersatu MPs aligned to him.

But Datuk Marzuki Yahya, who Mahathir still regards as Bersatu secretary-general, has clarified that Mahathir and the party’s MPs aligned to him sat as independents and not opposition MPs “as we support Pakatan Harapan but we are not part of the coalition”.

Mahathir has vowed to fight on. He has promised big trouble for Muhyiddin and the Perikatan Nasional administration. And one need not be a political pundit to know that the government sees Mahathir as a threat no matter the odds that are stacked against him.

The current heavy attack on him makes that clear. And the Mahathir-Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim combo is still seen by the ruling parties as a force to be reckoned with.

But media activist Ahmad Lutfi Othman, a self-confessed Pakatan Harapan supporter, is somewhat concerned. “At a time when Perikatan Nasional is at its most vulnerable, saddled with internal conflicts, holding a slim majority in parliament and having issues among their Sarawak parties, suddenly encouraging signs for the return of the people’s mandate are in jeopardy with the impression that Mahathir and Anwar are still at odds with each other.”

Observers point to the leaked audio clip of Mahathir allegedly telling the Bersatu supreme council meeting in late February that he “dislikes DAP and Anwar and the party must pull out of Pakatan Harapan”, saying that the clip is aimed at driving a wedge between the two. Mahathir has since said the clip was doctored and called for the release of the full recording.

Another example, say observers, would be Anwar’s absence at Mahathir’s press conference held after last Monday’s parliament sitting. A lot has been made of it, although Anwar said it was not necessary for him to be there as it was not a Pakatan Harapan event.

Lutfi says the Pakatan Harapan parties must take several steps to make the best of the situation. Apart from strengthening the influence of their respective parties, the cooperation among the opposition parties must be “purified” while ties between Mahathir and Anwar must be “made clear”.

“Their hardcore supporters, especially the advisers, must take a lesson from the fall of the Pakatan Harapan government,” says Lutfi.

A political observer says Pakatan Harapan’s best bet is a united coalition. “Mahathir and Anwar should for the final stand unite Pakatan Harapan as Perikatan Nasional is a fragile coalition,” he opines.

Although the observer suspects that more leaders will jump to Perikatan Nasional, “that will not necessarily strengthen Muhyiddin if they jump to Umno instead”.

Another observer says, “All said and done, Mahathir and Anwar do seem to be on the same page in that Pakatan Harapan’s mandate from the people must be restored and the country cannot return to the dark era of Datuk Seri Najib Razak-Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi-led Umno politics.

“Clearly the challenge for Mahathir and Anwar is to exploit any fissures in the ranks of the Perikatan Nasional parties. Not an easy feat given the slew of political appointments that has been endorsed by Muhyiddin in recent weeks,” he observes.

Indeed the nation is entering a politically fragile phase.  

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