This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on May 18, 2020 - May 24, 2020

THE developments we are seeing in Kedah, Johor, Melaka as well as in political parties such as Bersatu and PKR, according to political analyst Dr Hamidin Abdul Hamid, are the dynamics of the uncertain political alignment that took place in late February.

There is no indication that the process is easing.

We saw how the Pakatan Harapan (PH) federal government fell when a group of MPs switched sides in February. Now, we are witnessing attempts by Perikatan Nasional (PN) to take over the Kedah state government. The modus operandi that enabled it to take over the federal government without going to the polls is now being used to wrest power in Kedah.

At press time, reports had emerged that 36 state assemblymen from PN and PH had met with the Sultan of Kedah to express confidence in their candidate to lead a new government. The new menteri besar is expected to be sworn in on Sunday.

Talk in the political fraternity is that PN could also try to form backdoor governments in Negeri Sembilan and Selangor. However, no such moves have taken place so far.

In Johor and Melaka, the PH administrations lost power soon after the end of PH’s reign in Putrajaya.

Unlike Kedah, which at press time was led by Bersatu deputy president Datuk Seri Mukhriz Mahathir, who is at odds with party president Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin, Johor is run by Umno and Bersatu’s Team Muhyiddin. But there is simmering trouble between the two parties.

“This uncertain situation is expected to go on until GE15, when new well-structured and clear-cut coalitions are formed,” says Hamidin. Although PN is a loose coalition of political parties, it nevertheless succeeded in toppling PH.

PH, on the other hand, is an officially registered coalition currently made up of PKR, DAP and Amanah. While DAP and Amanah are intact, the same cannot be said of PKR. The party helmed by Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim is believed to still have supporters of its former deputy president Datuk Seri Azmin Ali, who had a falling out with Anwar.

Bersatu is no longer in the coalition but the party is split. While the faction of party chairman Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad is aligned to the opposition, supporters of its president, Muhyiddin, are on the government benches.

This explains why Hamidin is expecting coalitions to become clear-cut when the next general election approaches. More interestingly, Umno, the biggest Malay-based party aligned to PN, has said it has no qualms about contesting in GE15 with PAS under the Muafakat Nasional banner. It is even willing to face Prime Minister Muhyiddin’s Bersatu candidates.

According to political author Mohd Sayuti Omar, what is taking place now can be seen as giving an advantage to PN, particularly Muhyiddin. Nevertheless, there will definitely be problems such as seat allocations for GE15, which Muhyiddin must settle with Umno in particular, he says.

But the biggest challenge Muhyiddin faces is that Umno leaders are saying the party will support the PN government only until GE15. This is despite many Umno leaders being in the Muhyiddin administration and holding plum positions at government-linked companies (GLCs) and government agencies.

As for PH, it also needs to clean up its act. Anwar and Mahathir have to put their ties back on track.

However, the bigger cleaning-up must be done by PKR itself.

“Yes, Kedahgate should spur Anwar to continue with house cleaning and put his party on a sound footing. His detractors will no doubt accuse him of being dictatorial in purging Azmin’s supporters, but the dissent and internal fights in PKR have showed the heavy price the party paid for so-called democracy,” says the observer.

Another political commentator says the move to purge Azmin’s people from the party is popular and supported by many in PKR. He feels that PKR should say there is no point in looking back, but it must continue to get “rid of Azmin’s people once and for all and prepare for the next general election”.

Azmin’s faction, he says, is now at risk of being a group that nobody wants. Azmin, for whatever plans he might be hatching, is already accused of abandoning his supporters, especially the non-Malays stranded in PKR.

Perhaps he should have joined Gerakan, as speculated months ago. All that is now water under the bridge. But wait … Gerakan has just announced its support for Muhyiddin.

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