This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on November 4, 2019 - November 10, 2019

TO many Malaysians, the biggest mistake made by Parti Gerakan Rakyat Malaysia was to join the Barisan Nasional back in 1973.

A short history lesson is in order. The party commonly known as Gerakan was formed in 1968 as an opposition party to the Alliance government. Its founding members were all respected personalities: Prof Syed Hussain Alatas, Tan Sri Dr Tan Chee Khoon, Tun Dr Lim Chong Eu, Dr JBA Peter, Prof Wang Gungwu and V Veerapan — a multiracial line-up consistent with the position the party took as a Malaysian, non-communal political entity.

Although Gerakan boasted a membership comprising Malaysians of all races, the majority were Chinese. Nonetheless, it was a political force to be reckoned with during its heyday — a formidable critical voice with the late Tan acclaimed as Mr Opposition.

In the 1969 general election, Gerakan won Penang, taking 16 out of 24 state assembly seats to win control from the Alliance’s MCA, days before the May 13 riots broke out in Kuala Lumpur.

In 1972, Gerakan joined the Alliance, which evolved into BN a year later. Gerakan was the opposition no more. There were internal disputes over the decision to be Alliance-friendly and subsequently a BN component. Prominent members, including founding fathers Syed Hussain, Tan and Veerapan, together with the popular V David, left the party. So too did many non-Chinese grassroots members.

Perhaps the Gerakan leadership had their reasons back then for joining the BN coalition. But to many, it came at the expense of a formidable force breaking up with the departure of some of its highly regarded leaders. Although over the years, prominent leaders emerged in the likes of Tun Dr Lim Keng Yaik and Tan Sri Koh Tsu Koon as well as Datuk Paul Leong, and the party ruled Penang and was well represented at federal level, Gerakan as many saw it was never the same. It came to be seen as subservient to Umno, and the party went downhill, in particular from 2008. This has prompted people to say that joining BN in 1973 was a mistake.

In GE12 held in 2008, Gerakan suffered its worst electoral defeat, retaining only two out of the 10 parliamentary seats it had held. As a result, the party lost its only Cabinet post in the ensuing line-up.

If that was not bad enough, Gerakan also lost Penang, a state which the party had governed for almost 39 years.

Following that dismal performance, in a bid to regain the confidence of the rakyat, Gerakan launched a campaign “to rebuild, rebrand, re-empower”. It adoped a new slogan — Satu Hati Gerak Bersama or “forward together with one heart”.

That didn’t work. In GE13, held in 2013 under the stewardship of Datuk Seri Najib Razak as the BN chairman, Gerakan failed to improve its position and lost one of its two remaining parliamentary seats.

In 2016, for the first time in the country’s history, a BN chairman did not attend the opening ceremony of the Gerakan annual meeting. Najib, in his capacity as BN chairman, preferred to appear on video for two minutes to address the assembly. That spoke volumes about how Gerakan was viewed by the BN itself.

In GE14 last year, Gerakan was wiped out, failing to win a single seat. And on June 23, 2018, Gerakan decided to leave BN in the aftermath of the coalition’s defeat. In announcing the decision, Gerakan said it will act as an independent party in the opposition bloc to offer a check and balance to the Pakatan Harapan government.

Now comes the Tanjung Piai by-election in Johor on Nov 16. Gerakan wants to use the by-election as a launching pad to “make a comeback as a third force”.

First question: Can Gerakan be the third force it aspires to be? To Ilham Centre CEO Mohd Azlan Zainal, Gerakan is contesting in the Tanjung Piai by-election to test whether it is still relevant after leaving BN.

Gerakan, says Azlan, is still searching for its support base and is trying to regain voter confidence after being crippled since GE12. That is as good as saying that Gerakan cannot be the third force even if it wins Tanjung Piai. “A third force usually comes from non-governmental organisations or non-government individuals, not from among political parties,” says Azlan.

The second question is, obviously: Can Gerakan win Tanjung Piai? There is a text message from an unknown source circulating on WhatsApp predicting that Gerakan candidate Wendy Subramaniam will get 100% of the Indian votes, a sizeable number of votes from women and the young as well as from the Chinese and “serious voters fed up with BN and PH”.

There is talk that the Indian votes would go to the Gerakan candidate not only because she is of Indian-Chinese parentage but because the community is angry over the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam allegations against a section of the Malaysian Tamil community.

As Azlan sees it, Indian voting patterns are usually not personality-based, as proved in the Rantau by-election where the PH candidate, despite being Indian, did not muster enough Indian votes to win. In Tanjung Piai, says Azlan, “the composition of Indian voters is too small to have a significant impact even if all of them go to Gerakan”.

As for protest votes, Azlan says people, in particular the Chinese who voted for PH in GE14, will not be likely to vote for BN or any other party even if they are frustrated with PH. Any protest coming from this group, according to Azlan, would be in the form of voters not returning from out of town or not turning up at polling stations if they are residing in the constituency.

Still, he acknowledges that split or protest votes would have an adverse effect on BN and PH, even if a little.

Naturally, Chinese voters play a big role, although the number of Malay voters is slightly higher. Gerakan being a Chinese-majority multiracial party is banking on the Chinese factor but, as Azlan points out, the party will find the going tough indeed.

Azlan’s remarks are, however, based on Ilham Centre’s observations thus far. On Nov 5, the research outfit will hold a seminar on the Tanjung Piai by-election based on the latest findings, featuring well-known academics, analysts and researchers.

For the record, Ilham Centre has been spot on in its predictions of by-elections held since GE14.

BN has announced MCA’s Wee Jeck Seng as its candidate amid heavy lobbying by Umno. Wee was the Tanjung Piai MP for two terms but lost to PH’s Dr Farid Rafik from Bersatu in the GE14 last year. The popular Farid died last month.

In naming Wee, the BN hopes to soothe the fears, especially among non-Muslims, over the Umno-PAS pact. It is no big secret that the Chinese community is angry with the MCA for continuing to work with Umno despite its long-time ally’s marriage with PAS. The pact between the Malay-Muslim parties has only succeeded in hurting the feelings of non-Muslims in particular since GE14.

PH will again be represented by Bersatu, which has picked Karmaine Sardini this time.

The contest looks to be a repeat of last year’s PH-BN clash, while Gerakan would be hoping to cut into the Chinese voter base.

Mohsin Abdullah is contributing editor at The Edge. He has covered politics for more than four decades.

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