This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly, on December 21 - 27, 2015.    

TUMULTUOUS, dramatic, edgy — these words come to mind when the political developments of 2015 come up for review. Key events that crystallised in the past 12 months can be traced to the continuing shakeout in the country’s power balance as Umno, possibly the longest ruling party in the democratic world, faces the severest test of its almost seven-decade-old existence.

With its blanket control of the country’s resources, Umno, together with the Barisan Nasional coalition of ethnic and regional parties that it leads, continues to loom large over the nation in all major areas — from economic performance to the tone of its politics to development policy and race relations.

Despite the ruling coalition’s worst-ever electoral performance in the 13th general election in 2013, when it secured 47.38% of the popular vote, the opposition parties look unlikely to gain the upper hand soon due to a combination of their own weaknesses that came to a head in the year past and also in view of an inhospitable political environment.

Early in the year, the opposition bloc lost its most prominent voice when its de facto leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim was jailed for a second sodomy conviction.

Following a long-drawn-out case that drew international attention, the Federal Court affirmed the conviction of the opposition leader and upheld his jail sentence of five years. Although Anwar’s family and supporters sought to ignite public opinion behind his cause, their ambition has failed to gain sufficient traction. The court’s decision virtually closes the door to Anwar’s political career for a decade, as he will be barred from holding public office for five years after his release.

By the middle of the year, the opposition pact Pakatan Rakyat fell apart after an uneven seven years over a deep split between the DAP and Pas on the implementation of shariah law in Kelantan state, which requires an amendment to the Federal Constitution.

The controversy led to an exodus of members from Pas following the party’s muktamar (general assembly) in June, when the ulama wing of the party pushed through a motion to cut ties with DAP. Following a period of uncertainty, the breakaway faction established the Parti Amanah Negara (Amanah) in August, with the liberal leader Mohamad Sabu, popularly known as Mat Sabu, as its president.

By September, Anwar’s party PKR, the DAP and Amanah announced the formation of the Pakatan Harapan coalition to replace the defunct Pakatan Rakyat. However, public opinion on the new alignment has been less than enthusiastic, and the opposition parties will be likely to hobble along for some time.

Another symbolic loss for the opposition was the passing of the well-loved Pas leader Nik Aziz Nik Mat in February. Nik Aziz’s sincerity and humble lifestyle was a beacon of hope for the Islamic party’s image for all Malaysians.

Political hot potato

The Barisan Nasional government was however weighed down by controversies in its own administration, with the 1Malaysia Development Bhd state investment fund in particular proving to be a political hot potato.

With damaging allegations of financial improprieties swirling around the fund, multiple investigations involving key government institutions were initiated. In March, a special task force involving the Inspector General of Police, Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC), Attorney-General’s Chambers and the police force began its probe into the fund’s workings and its RM42 billion debt.

As public scrutiny of the affair intensified, Parliament’s Public Accounts Committee launched its own enquiry. Then in June, Bank Negara Malaysia made a separate move to investigate whether the fund had violated the central bank’s rules.

To contain the fallout from a stream of damaging exposés about the fund’s management, the government restricted access to information about it, in particular the Sarawak Report website.

To compound matters, The Wall Street Journal reported in July that some RM2.6 billion was deposited into Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak’s personal accounts shortly before the general election in 2013. Najib responded that the money came from Middle Eastern donors.

The same month, two publications of the Edge Media Group — The Edge Weekly and The Edge Financial Daily — that had diligently pursued the 1MDB story were suspended for three months by the Home Ministry. The High Court however ruled that the order was defective. The government is appealing the decision.

Cabinet reshuffle

The 1MDB controversy fuelled a political storm within the government fold, led by former prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad, who turned from being Najib’s mentor to his implacable opponent. Among Cabinet members, criticism from Najib’s deputy Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin, Rural and Regional Development Minister Datuk Seri Shafie Apdal and others boiled over into a Cabinet reshuffle in July. Home Minister Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi rose to become Najib’s new deputy as the prime minister consolidated his support within the government.

At the same time, Attorney-General Tan Sri Abdul Gani Patail was replaced just two months short of his official retirement.

Despite the barrage of criticism, Najib has been able to rally support from within the ranks of government and his political allies. In August, the MACC backed Najib on the Middle Eastern source of the funds in his personal accounts.

The special task force investigating 1MDB was renamed in early August, and the Attorney-General’s Chambers, now headed by former Federal Court judge Tan Sri Mohamad Apandi Ali, issued a statement that it would not be investigating the fund, but looking at tax evasion and illegal fund flows.

Public opinion about the goings-on in government fuelled a fourth public rally for clean and fair elections in late August. However, support for Bersih 4, which was held overnight for the first time, was split, primarily because of the discord among the opposition parties. Pas, which had notably marshalled its supporters in past rallies, was equivocal about turning out on this occasion. Held on the weekend before Independence Day, it drew tens of thousands of a mostly urban, internet-connected and non-Malay crowd, according to pollster Merdeka Centre.

To counter this show of strength, right wing Malay groups organised a Red Shirt Rally or Himpunan Rakyat Bersatu on Malaysia Day, Sept 16, avowedly to protect the dignity of the Malay race against the “rude” behaviour of Bersih supporters. However, the event found little traction among the Malays, the Merdeka Centre reported, citing its survey findings.

Elsewhere, the ruling coalition was also hurting from its partners’ political troubles. A damaging fallout in the MIC, a senior coalition member of the Barisan Nasional, spilled into the open when the party president Datuk Seri G Palanivel was challenged by his deputy Datuk Seri S Subramaniam. The no-holds-barred quarrel took a very public route to the Registrar of Societies, the courts and included the prime minister’s mediation.

In the end, Subramaniam was elected uncontested in August, and the Federal Court dismissed Palanivel’s objections, ruling that the Registrar was correct in calling for fresh elections.

Royal concern

The country’s troubled outlook prompted the Malay Rulers to issue a rare joint statement in October calling on the government to thoroughly investigate the 1MDB controversy and to punish those found guilty of wrongdoing.

In Parliament, debate on the fund’s operations raged as opposition leaders demanded a full accounting of the affair. DAP parliamentary leader Lim Kit Siang was among the casualties, and was suspended from Parliament for six months in late October. His offence was to criticise what he called the lack of seriousness shown in the investigation into the affairs of the investment fund, which the Speaker and his deputy took offence to.

Former MCA president Tun Dr Ling Liong Sik joined the fray by supporting Mahathir’s call for Najib to quit the prime minister’s post. Ling reportedly said, “I agree with Mahathir. Because he (Najib) has taken people’s money and put it in his own personal accounts.” After weeks of exchanges between Ling and Najib’s lawyer, he finally sued Ling for defamation.

While Umno’s division heads and senior leaders appeared to keep faith with Najib, signs of discontent among the party’s grassroots leaders have made the headlines.

Langkawi Wanita Umno leader Anina Saadudin was sacked from the party when she filed a suit to reclaim a portion of the RM2.6 billion donation that was deposited into Najib’s personal accounts. Gopeng Umno Wanita chief Datuk Hamidah Osman was similarly sacked for calling for Najib’s resignation.

A more dramatic case involved former Umno division chief Datuk Khairuddin Abu Hassan who was sacked, then arrested with his lawyer Matthias Chang under the Security Offences (Special Measures) Act, for allegedly attempting to overthrow the government.

Further steps to contain criticism appear to be in place following the Federal Court’s dismissal of a move to contest the constitutionality of the Sedition Act. The case was brought by law professor Azmi Sharom, who was charged under the Act over his comments in an article relating the Perak constitutional crisis of 2009 to the impasse over the Selangor menteri besar’s appointment in September 2014.

Over 30 opposition politicians and civil society activists who have been charged under the act since last year will be impacted by the apex court’s decision in October.

Expressions of support

If the expressions of support that Najib heard at the Umno general assembly in early December are any indication, the Umno president can claim to have contained the challenge to his leadership from within his party.

A day before the assembly began, to get around the party leadership council’s decision that Muhyiddin, the party deputy president, should not speak at the annual gathering, he made a bold stand of telling Najib to take a rest until the investigations into the 1MDB saga are completed. Speaking at the same side event, Mahathir came out with guns blazing, telling Najib pointedly to quit so that Umno would not be demolished at the next general election.

The battle between the current premier and his erstwhile mentor is clearly in full swing.

What the direction of events on the national stage in the year ahead can be will depend on many factors. But some indication of the seriousness of the current situation can be gleaned from the passing of the National Security Council Bill at midnight on the last day of the parliamentary sitting for the year.

The proposed law, which is now before the Senate, allows the prime minister as the chairman of the council to declare any area a security area, where “emergency-like” conditions can be imposed.

That could prove to be a powerful card to hold in a tight spot.

Save by subscribing to us for your print and/or digital copy.

P/S: The Edge is also available on Apple's AppStore and Androids' Google Play.