KUALA LUMPUR (Dec 19): The local upstream oil and gas (O&G) industry can anticipate a positive outlook for drilling rigs, well services and underwater services in the next three years due to the repair and maintenance activities required, Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas) said in its latest Activity Outlook report.

In the Petronas Activity Outlook 2023-2025, the national O&G company also forecast a steady outlook for subsea facilities, supply of line-pipes, and heavy lift barges given the steady amount of projects requiring wellhead platforms.

However, Petronas said it “expects the uncertainty in the energy market to continue”, adding that industry players have to be agile in responding to the changing energy landscape and embrace innovation as well as new solutions towards a lower-carbon future.

“Petronas is committed to working together with our partners as the industry accelerates its efforts to decarbonise operations as part of a wider energy transition,” said its vice president of group procurement Freida Amat in a statement.

“The transition into clean energy needs to happen now, to meet the changing energy landscape projected by 2050, which calls for greater collaborations amongst industries towards creating efficient solutions for better cost management, heightened customer centricity, value-creation and innovative solutions.

“This is crucial to avoid missing the window of opportunity to navigate the energy transition successfully,” she said.

In the upstream segment, Petronas has revised slightly higher the number of man-hours potentially required for offshore maintenance, construction and modification (MCM) to 11.88 million-12.3 million in 2023-2024, from 11.44 million-11.82 million previously.

It also revised upwards the expected demand for the number of rigs and hydraulic workover units (HWUs) to a total of 28, from 24 forecasted the year before.

The report also underlined 96 wells to be drilled in 2023, aside from 21 wells planned for workover activities, It sees 28 wells to undergo plugging and abandonment (P&A), down from 40 forecasted a year ago.

“Positive outlook is expected for the next three years given the increase in workover recompletion to reactivate idle wells and well P&A,” the report said, adding that it will focus on P&A for the next three years as preparation for future facilities removal campaign.

The activity outlook for offshore fabrication of fixed structures also improved to eight to nine structures in 2023, followed by six to 11 structures in 2024.

Meanwhile, Petronas has revised downwards the number of lifts using heavy lift barges to five in 2023, from eight forecasted last year, although it expects a pick-up to 10-12 in 2024 and potentially further in 2025.

“The increase of activities for 2024-2025 may pose challenges in the existing tight supply market,” it said.

Petronas also sees a resumption in hook-up and commissioning (HUC) activities, following deferred projects in 2022 which is expected to resume and spill over in 2023 with at least five million man-hours, from at least 4.5 million previously forecasted.

In the offshore support vessel (OSV) segment, it sees higher demand in 2023-2025 compared with its previous forecast.

However, demand from production operations depicts slight year-on-year decreases “due to revision in production operations philosophy” such as unmanned platforms, Petronas said.

“OSV owners embarking on fleet renewal should consider fuel efficient technologies including diesel electric vessels to reduce total operational cost for charterers,” it said.