Tuesday 23 Apr 2024
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TORONTO (Oct 4): Petronas potentially has sufficient resource to supply the gas shortfall of four trains for LNG Canada project, TD analysts led by Aaron Bilkoski say in note.

* TD notes the LNG Canada consortium (Shell, Petronas, Mitsubishi, PetroChina, KoGas) hold >37tcf, based on rough estimates
 
* Adds that excluding Petronas, four (of five) partners have sufficient resource to supply their share of gas for two trains for ~25 years, or a full-scale project for only ~12 years

* But including Petronas’ resource of 25tcf of Proved plus Probable (2P) reserves, the consortium has ample gas to supply a full-scale (four trains) project for >25 years 

* Doesn’t see this being a major catalyst for public acquisitions; says the lowest cost Montney producers under TD’s coverage are trading at ~C$13,000 per boe/d, with the average trading closer to C$20,000–C$25,000 per boe/d, adding that this is above what TD believes is the cost to add incremental production volumes 

* Consortium currently producing 1.8bcf/d natgas

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