Friday 29 Mar 2024
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KUALA LUMPUR (Dec 10): The Malaysian Aviation Commission (Mavcom) forecasts passenger traffic in 2020 to grow between 5% and 6% year-on-year (y-o-y), which translates to between 114.9 million and 116.0 million passengers.

Releasing its bi-annual industry report Waypoint today, Mavcom forecasts the growth to be driven by Visit Malaysia 2020 and a 3.2% y-o-y increase in domestic seat capacity growth.

The forecasted growth in 2020 follows Mavcom's revised 2019 passenger traffic forecast to between 109.1 million and 109.7 million, a growth of between 6.4% and 7% y-o-y, while actual traffic growth for 1H19 was 5.2% y-o-y.

Mavcom said in 1H19, Malaysia recorded 4.8 million tourist arrivals by air, resulting in an 8.8% y-o-y growth.

It said this is higher than the growth recorded for total tourist arrivals by all modes of transport of 4.9% y-o-y, resulting in arrivals of 13.4 million.

The regulator said this increase is mainly a result of higher tourist arrivals from Indonesia, China, and Thailand, which offset the decline in tourist arrivals from Singapore and Brunei.

It said that collectively, these five countries constituted 78% of the total tourist arrivals in 1H19.

Meanwhile, seat capacity by Malaysian carriers is expected to grow by 2% y-o-y in 2020 compared with 4.3% y-o-y in 2019.

Mavcom said average fares by the carriers are forecasted to remain flat or rise slightly due to slower growth in capacity, which may also enable local carriers to improve their load factors.

Mavcom executive chairman Dr Nungsari Ahmad Radhi noted the growing development of alternative airport hubs such as Johor Bahru, Kuching, and Kota Kinabalu in 2019 as carriers allocate more seats to these airports, which enable a wider choice of domestic destinations.

"Greater allocation of seats for these airports supported the domestic-led growth in 2019 and is expected to persist in 2020, where routes within Sabah and Sarawak will experience the highest growth," he said.

Mavcom also released a technical paper entitled Managing Airport Demand: The Role of Airport Slots, which discusses the role of slots in managing airport demand, where a slot is a permission given to airlines to utilise the full range of airport infrastructure relating to their take-off or landing operations.

An airport is congested when its infrastructure is incapable of coping with the demand at almost all times (Level 3) or during peak periods (Level 2).

Mavcom said that in Malaysia, only the Kuala Lumpur International Airport is a Level 3 airport, as classified by the International Air Transport Association.

However, it said nine other airports in the country also face congestion, handling more passengers than their terminals' respective design capacities.

Slot allocation for airports in Malaysia is carried out by the National Slot Coordination Malaysia.

Mavcom said it also considers slot-related measures when assessing exemption applications or mergers, given its authority over competition matters in aviation services.

Mavcom said due to the growth of the industry and the increasing pressures on airport infrastructure, slot allocation is expected to play a larger role in managing airport demand in Malaysia.

It said other solutions such as increasing operational efficiency and upgrading air traffic management systems should also be explored before resorting to airport infrastructure expansion.

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