SINGAPORE (Sept 2): Palm oil may fall to 1,963 ringgit per tonne, as it has failed to break a resistance at 2,024 ringgit.

The resistance is provided by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement on the fall from the July 3 high of 2,285 ringgit to the Aug 25 low of 1,863 ringgit. The bounce from 1,863 ringgit has been driven by a wave IV, the fourth wave of a five-wave cycle that developed from 2,362 ringgit.

This wave will be totally reversed by a downward wave V, which could have started. Immediate support is at 1,963 ringgit, the 23.6% level, a break below which could cause a loss to the 14.6% level at 1,925 ringgit.

A break above 2,024 ringgit could lead to a gain to 2,074 ringgit, the 50% level. - by Wang Tao, Reuters

(Wang Tao is a Reuters market analyst for commodities and energy technicals. The views expressed are his own. No information in this analysis should be considered as being business, financial or legal advice. Each reader should consult his or her own professional or other advisers for business, financial or legal advice regarding the products mentioned in the analyses.)