This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly, on January 16 - 22, 2017.

DR Jonathan Beard, head of transport and logistics consultancy for Arcadis in Asia, who led the team advising the World Bank on the National Port Strategy, answers some questions posed by The Edge:

The Edge: The plan for a port on Carey Island ... what are its strengths, and are there any other options available?

Dr Jonathan Beard: [It] provides an opportunity for a state-of-the-art capacity in one integrated facility, as compared with split terminals at [Port] Klang. Other options would be to include expansion of Westports — substantial additional capacity can still be developed, provided the access channel does not become too congested.

It sounds like an expensive proposition, and some say it is not bankable. Do you have any indication how much it will cost to build the 30 million-TEU port? Any estimate? Any idea how the funding is structured?

I have some details but I cannot share them. It will likely require some public funding.

How soon do you think the need for the port will arise? Some ports like Westports have expansion plans. There are also fears that some shipping lines may go back to Singapore.

It is difficult to say. Is Carey an additional or replacement option for [Port] Klang? If it is the former, then the capacity being built is largely for transhipment, rather than for gateway [or import/export] cargo.

Transhipment demand is difficult to forecast and is very dependent on the strategies of carriers and main alliances. In Southeast Asia, the world’s largest transhipment market, alliances are looking for large high-quality capacity [to accommodate alliance partners and feeders] at low terminal charges and with excellent port productivity.

There have been problems with siltation and the need for dredging of the channels at Port Klang, which costs a lot. How is the siltation at Carey Island? Is there a need for channel breakwaters or other capex-heavy infrastructure?

I cannot comment on this. I look at it as part of the [Port] Klang Master Plan in 2010-11 and the National Port Strategy (2015-16), but most of that information is not in the public domain as far as I am aware.

What do you foresee as the biggest challenge for this mega project?

The Southeast Asian transhipment market requires “scale”, that is you cannot easily phase capacity and start with a 800m berth, for example — you won’t be competitive. Hence, the initial phase has to be large. If Carey is a replacement port, then it will benefit from the transfer of the cargo [which provides higher yield per lift]. On the other hand, if it is additional and competing with [Port] Klang, it may be overly reliant on the transhipment market (low yield per lift).

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