This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily on March 8, 2019

KUALA LUMPUR: With the “marriage” of Umno and PAS solemnised, both parties’ supporters are enjoying the honeymoon, talking enthusiastically about changing the state governments in Perak and Kedah, which are held by Pakatan Harapan.

Figures are being floated on social media of the combined numbers of seats of Umno and PAS which they claim have put the parties in front in the Perak state assembly and level in Kedah.

Whether it is being done deliberately or otherwise, the numbers they are flaunting differ from the official figures for Perak, where Pakatan holds 30 seats, Barisan Nasional (BN)/Umno 25, PAS three and one is an independent and also in Kedah where Pakatan has 19 seats, PAS 15 and two seats are with BN/Umno.

While the slim difference between the number of seats won by Pakatan and Umno-PAS is whipping their supporters into a frenzy, the figures they are quoting are wrong.

However, Azlan Zainal, chief executive officer of research outfit Ilham Centre, said a change of government in both states “is not that easy as the governments are functioning and Pakatan holds the advantage with the Speaker in the assemblies as well the Umno reps being not solidly with BN”.

Also being floated is a theory derived from 14th general election (GE14) figures. The numbers of votes obtained by BN and PAS on May 9 last year are added for a combined total which would naturally be more than the votes won by Pakatan candidates.

The theory is supposed to prove wrong the belief that PAS fielded candidates in order to create multi-cornered fights in GE14 to help BN win.

Also the theory could be seen to boost morale following the Umno-PAS “marriage” as the combined votes obtained could be enough for them to win many Malay-majority constituencies that are currently held by big names in Pakatan. These include Datuk Mahfiz Omar of Parti Amanah Negara and Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia’s Datuk Seri Mukhriz Mahathir.

The logic being that people who voted for Umno or PAS in GE14 would vote for Umno-PAS as they are now one and will not be facing each other in GE15.

According to Azlan, that calculation involves small majority seats won by Pakatan. Some 30 seats actually.

“The belief is if Umno-PAS win the 30 seats with other friendly parties delivering the goods they can get a simple majority in parliament. And there are also 16 other seats in Malay-majority constituencies won by Pakatan in GE14 with slim majorities,” said Azlan.

Yet again Azlan said it is not as easy as it looks as “transferring votes is not like transferring credit via online banking”. In short, proponents of the so-called theory are simplifying matters.

“The are lots of considerations to look into. Like the distribution of seats among Umno-PAS, the different demographies of constituencies, their location and voter segments, just to name a few.”

For the record, Ilham Centre, which Azlan heads, correctly predicted a BN win in the Cameron Highlands and Semenyih by-elections, making it a contrarian outfit that got it right.

Based on research and studies by the centre, Azlan said Malay votes differ from one constituency to another as the voting trend among Malays is different in urban and rural areas, not to mention Felda schemes.

However, as he sees it, “Malay voting now is very fragile”, going on to say Umno-PAS would be looking at racial and religious sentiments (again) to garner Malay votes. No surprise there.

Thus the possibility of state governments falling to Umno-PAS in GE15 cannot be dismissed outright. What more when it is acknowledged that everything is possible in politics.

Still, Azlan said these are early days. But Pakatan needs to be wary of the threat it is about to face.

As for federal control, Umno-PAS know they need the support of non-Malays, who at this moment are cheesed off with both parties. This reflects the non-Malay sentiment against Umno and PAS.

Despite all the rhetoric on race and religion, to say that Umno and PAS will make a clean sweep of all Malay votes is stretching it a bit too far.

In the words of PKR leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim: “Malay [supporters] are not only in Umno and PAS. Those who are non-party members are also large in numbers and in associations.”

The Malays in Pakatan component parties are not forgotten. But there is no denying it is about the battle for Malay votes, as always.