This article first appeared in Forum, The Edge Malaysia Weekly on February 11, 2019 - February 17, 2019
Vietnam’s economy has been growing steadily in recent years and it is now reaching a point where it is going to matter a lot more in the global economy, in Asean and in regional political dynamics. In 2007, Vietnam’s economy was less than 6% of the total Asean economy and by 2017, it was above 8%. At current rates of growth, its share of Asean’s output will exceed Malaysia’s and Singapore’s and match Thailand’s within the next decade. It is also a growing market for other Asean economies. For example, from a negligible share of Singapore’s exports 20 years ago, Vietnam is now its 10th largest market — and that importance can only grow.
So, Vietnam matters a lot more and we need to better appreciate the path it will take over the coming years. The prospects are indeed rosy, with cyclical and structural trends favouring Vietnam. With sufficient political reforms to tackle corruption and unleash entrepreneurial energies, Vietnam could become an economic dynamo with corresponding political heft.
Near-term outlook: Vietnam likely to outperform most of the world
Vietnam looks set to buck the global trend in the near term. Even as the global economy slowed in late 2018, Vietnam’s GDP rose 7.3% in the last quarter of 2018, accelerating from 6.8% in the third quarter, which resulted in full-year growth reaching a decade-high of 7.1% in 2018. It achieved this despite a slowdown in exports, suggesting that domestic demand was playing a more substantial role in keeping its economy on a good track.
The portents are good for Vietnam as we go forward.
First, the economy is showing improved resilience, a product of rising domestic demand and an improved supply side.
As the global economy lost momentum in the later part of 2018, it was striking how purchasing manager surveys showed production and order books in Vietnam holding up much better than those in its regional partners such as Taiwan, South Korea and Malaysia. We think that this outperformance vis-à-vis regional peers can be traced to strengthening domestic demand as well as Vietnam’s success in attracting foreign investment.
(RM77.9 billion) in 2018. Going forward, the government’s commitment to major infrastructural projects will help to improve its attractiveness to foreign investors who, by bringing together a package of capital, technology, access to markets and branding, help accelerate economic development.
Second, Vietnam’s policymakers have also paid attention to previous weaknesses in its economy, improving the sustainability of its recent economic performance.
This improvement can be seen in several areas.
But Vietnam needs to undertake more reforms if it is to sustain high growth
A number of structural weaknesses continue to hold back Vietnam’s prospects.
More political change may be needed before such reforms can be enacted
Fundamentally, Vietnam’s challenges go beyond the economy and requires the political leadership to act more vigorously. Take corruption as an
example. Rampant corruption had, by the mid 2000s, created a rent-seeking system in which powerful political-business complexes were able to exploit their influence over the state. The state’s control over land, policy-making, state enterprises and financing was distorted by these groups that extract payments from the efficient parts of the economy, sapping economic vigour and creating resentment against the ruling Communist Party of Vietnam, which could have led to political instability in the longer term.
Although a campaign against corruption was started in 2011, it was half-hearted and had little impact until 2016 when there was a decisive change in the leadership. Since then, the fight against corruption has intensified. Nguyen Phu Trong, who heads the Communist Party of Vietnam, extended his power by taking over the presidency. Nguyen appears determined to root out corruption but has had to move cautiously because of resistance to reforms at the highest levels of the party and government.
But there is a more profound political change that has been lacking. Sometimes, it seems that Vietnam’s political leaders are hesitating to make the fundamental break with ideology that the Chinese Communist Party made 20 years ago. In the late 1990s, CCP leader Jiang Zemin and then-Prime Minister Zhu Rongji undertook a groundbreaking overhaul of state-owned banks and state enterprises that provided the foundation, in combination with membership of the World Trade Organization, to totally transform China. Vietnam’s leaders do not seem to have reached such a consensus — and that means reforms of inefficient state banks and state enterprises remain half-hearted and incomplete. Until this is sorted out, the risk remains that heady growth could be accompanied by financial imbalances and state sector inefficiencies, which could eventually produce a storm and impede growth.
Conclusion
In short, near-term economic prospects for Vietnam are bright. Economic growth can be sustained even with some slowing in the world economy, helped by a robust outlook for both domestic demand and investment. With inflation under control, the exchange rate can remain stable as well.
Vietnam is also in the sweet spot insofar as structural trends such as demographics, urbanisation and production relocation out of China are concerned. But, policymakers must redouble their efforts to combat corruption, fix the financial sector and expand the space for private entrepreneurial energies while the going is good. Failure to do so could compromise Vietnam’s otherwise brilliant future.
Manu Bhaskaran is a partner and head of economic research at Centennial Group Inc, an economics consultancy
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