Friday 29 Mar 2024
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This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on June 8, 2020 - June 14, 2020

IF you opted to turn on the location history on your Google Account, it is likely that your movement activity in the last five months has formed part of Google’s Covid-19 Community Mobility Report.

Compiled by Google, these reports, which chart movement trends over time by geography, show how visits and lengths of stay at different places change compared with a baseline. The baseline here refers to the median value for the corresponding day of the week during the five-week period from Jan 3 to Feb 6. The dataset is divided into six categories with mobility changes measured against the baseline — the Retail and Recreation category that tracks mobility trends for places like restaurants, cafes, shopping centres, theme parks, museums, libraries and movie theatres; Grocery and Pharmacy for places like grocery markets, food warehouses, farmers’ markets and pharmacies; Parks for places like national parks, public beaches and public gardens; Transit Stations, which looks at mobility trends for public transport hubs such as bus and train stations; and Workplaces, which looks at trends in places of work.

The sixth category, Residential, which tracks mobility changes for places of residence against the baseline, differs slightly from the other categories in the sense that it shows a change in the duration or time spent at the place of residence, while the other categories measure a change in total visitors, or number of visits per se.

According to Google, these Community Mobility Reports aim to provide insights into what has changed in response to policies aimed at combating Covid-19.

The report is not just useful for the implementation of social distancing efforts, but can also be used as a gauge of mobility in the new normal of life post Covid-19 by comparing it with the baseline period, which is the time before the disease was categorised as a pandemic.

 

Understanding Malaysia’s data

Last Friday marked 80 days since a Movement Control Order (MCO) was imposed in Malaysia. It was first implemented on March 18 after a sharp rise in the number of cases in mid-March.

The first phase of the MCO, from March 18 to 31, saw a complete restriction of movement and assembly nationwide. It included a complete restriction of religious, sports and social activities, complete travel restriction for Malaysians going overseas, restriction of foreign visitors and tourists, and closure of all schools and all government and private premises, except those in essential services.

With those restrictions in place, it was not surprising that on March 29, during phase one of the MCO, the number of visits for the retail and recreation category fell 81% compared with the baseline, as dining in for restaurants was not allowed and shopping centres — with the exception of supermarkets — were shut.

Meanwhile, transit stations saw an 83% decline compared with the baseline as most companies implemented business continuity plans, which ensured that activities went on via work-from-home programmes. As a consequence, more hours were spent at home, as evidenced by the increase in mobility trends for places of residence, which rose 31% on March 29 compared with the baseline.

As the number of Covid-19 cases in Malaysia continued to climb — reaching a high of 235 daily cases on March 26 because many continued to flout MCO rules — the order was extended by another two weeks to April 14 (first extension), and then another fortnight to April 28 (second extension), and a third time, to May 12.

However, a turning point came when the number of daily cases started to drop to double digits towards the end of April, indicating that the infection curve was indeed flattening. This led to a relaxation of the MCO regulations, and a Conditional MCO came into effect on May 4, under which most businesses were allowed to reopen.

This had a significant impact on mobility trends as seen on May 29, which showed the retail and recreation sector reporting only a 48% drop from the baseline, as shopping malls were allowed to operate and dining out in small groups was permitted.

The grocery and pharmacy category reported just an 11% decline from the baseline, indicating that things were almost back to normal as more people returned to supermarkets for their necessities. Recall that there was initially some anxiety among the general public when a few wet markets in the Klang Valley were closed after several traders tested positive for Covid-19. However, the latest mobility trend seems to indicate that this concern has somewhat subsided.

The relaxation of MCO rules also saw more employees returning to their offices. The workplaces category saw a 28% decline from the baseline on May 29, compared with a 52% decline two months ago in March. Transit stations were slightly busier, reporting a decline of just 55% from the baseline on May 29, compared with 83% in March.

Though residential data shows that people are complying with the MCO, in line with the government’s tagline to “Just Stay Home”, the conditional MCO period shows that the time spent at home is coming down, with May 29 numbers indicating an increase of just 22% from the baseline, compared with April 29, which recorded an increase of 34%, and March, at 31%.

Jogging enthusiasts also happily embraced the CMCO. The mobility data for parks, which showed a decline of 68% from the baseline in March, has since fallen to 43% on May 29. Exercising in public, which includes jogging, was not allowed during the initial phases of the MCO. In a widely reported case, a cardiologist in Penang was charged in court for flouting MCO rules during the first phase in March. He pleaded not guilty.

But recently, it was reported that Taman Titiwangsa, a popular park in Kuala Lumpur, had been closed indefinitely by City Hall after it was swarmed by visitors following the loosening of restrictions under the CMCO.

Last Thursday, Malaysia recorded its highest number of cases in a single day at 277. Of these, 270 emerged after repeat testing of detainees at the Bukit Jalil Immigration Depot Centre. The total number of reported cases now stands at 8,266, with 6,610 recovered and 1,540 active cases.

The number of deaths had not risen for the 13 days up till last Thursday. However, last Friday, one death was reported, bringing the death toll from Covid-19 to 116.

 

How it looks like in three other countries

Singapore saw a surge in Covid-19 cases in April, with the majority involving foreign workers residing in dormitories. This led the government of the city state to impose circuit breaker measures from April 7 to June 1. It is now resuming economic activity in phases.

At press time, Singapore had reported 37,183 cases, with 24 deaths. A look at the Covid-19 Community Mobility Report for Singapore shows that the number of hours spent by people living in Singapore, measured by the residential category, tripled, from 15% on March 29 compared with the baseline, to 45% on May 29.

The Edge Singapore reported that Singapore’s retail sales value plummeted by 40.5% year on year in April following the imposition of the circuit breaker measures. Mobility data for the retail and recreation category shows a decline of just 28% from the baseline on March 29, before the circuit breaker was imposed, to a sharp drop of 67% on April 29, and eased to 62% on May 29.

Up north, Thailand reported just 3,102 cases — a fraction of Singapore’s — with 58 deaths reported. The Land of Smiles saw just a 27% decline from the baseline for the retail and recreation category on May 29, compared with a 55% decline in March. The decline in this category in March had been sharper than for grocery and pharmacy, likely due to the absence of tourists.

People in Thailand were also using public transport more frequently in May, as the decline from the baseline for transit stations was 38% on May 29, compared with a 61% decline in March.

Meanwhile, the country with the most number of Covid-19 cases, the US, has seen all 50 states ease lockdown restrictions that were put in place in March. In early March, the US had reported less than a thousand cases but this spiked to over 25,000 cases by the end of that month.

On March 29, retail and recreation mobility in the US reported a decline of 47% from the baseline. It eased to a 23% decline in May as a result of lockdown restrictions being loosened.

The workplaces category in the US declined by 38% from the baseline in March, and dropped further to 47% in April. However, as more people returned to their workplaces in May, it eased to a 37% decline on May 29.

Looking at residential mobility, people in the US recorded a 19% increase in April from the baseline for time spent at residential areas, which eased further to 14% in May.

At press time, the US had a reported 1.92 million Covid-19 cases, with 110,179 deaths. The country is also currently being roiled by civil unrest, as protests — which will also have an impact on mobility trends — erupted over the death of an African American, George Floyd, after he was taken into custody by police in Minneapolis.

 

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