KUALA LUMPUR (June 30): The basic reproduction number (R-naught or R0) for Covid-19 infections nationwide has risen to 1.05 as at June 30, said Health Director-General Tan Sri Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah. 

Dr Noor Hisham, in a tweet, posted a chart showing Malaysia’s Covid-19 infections now have reversed their downtrend, heading for 6,000 daily cases in the first half of July.

Based on the current Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) projection, forecast new cases could breach the 7,000-mark if non-compliance continues and R0 climbs to 1.2.

The national R0 number has risen since June 26 (when it stood at 0.97) to 0.99 on June 27, 1.00 on June 28, 1.04 on June 29 and 1.05 on June 30.

According to the latest data, Pahang recorded the highest R0 at 1.19, followed by Putrajaya (1.09), Melaka (1.09), Perak (1.08), Kuala Lumpur (1.07), Negeri Sembilan (1.06) and Selangor (1.05).

The R0/Rt data projects the average number of people whom each new Covid-19 patient will infect. Rt means the effective reproduction number. An Rt of less than 1.0 means the infection is not spreading.

Malaysia’s new Covid-19 infections stayed above the 6,000-level for the second consecutive day on June 30, with 6,276 cases. This is lower than the previous day’s total, partly due to lower cases in Kuala Lumpur at 625, from 1,361 on June 29. However, Selangor reported a higher number of new infections at 2,836, up from 2,299 on June 29.

Active cases climbed further to 64,129, as daily infections continued to outnumber recoveries for the fifth straight day.

The country’s total recoveries stood at 682,680, while total tally of Covid-19 cases was 751,979.

Malaysia is currently in Phase One of the National Recovery Plan. In order to advance to Phase Two, daily Covid-19 cases need to be below 4,000.  

Additionally, the public health system should be out of the critical stage, with the rate of bed usage in intensive care units returning to moderate levels, and 10% of population to have received two doses of the vaccine.