KUALA LUMPUR (Jan 7): Stockpiles est. +4% m-o-m, +15% y-o-y to new record 3.14 million tons at end-December, CIMB regional head of agribusiness Ivy Ng says in a Jan 4 report.
* NOTE: Malaysia Palm Reserves Seen Hitting Fresh Record
* Rising stockpiles in December likely to cap price upside near term: Ng
** CPO may trade in RM2,000-2,200 per ton range in Jan.
** Historically, CPO prices tend to bottom when stockpiles peak, such as in November 2015
* December production est. -1% m-o-m to 1.83 million tons, according to survey of 24 plantation areas by CIMB Futures
** Compares to average m-o-m drop of 10.5% for December past 10 years
** Estates in Sarawak posted almost 10% m-o-m drop in output offset by stronger output in Peninsular Malaysia and Sabah
* Exports seen +5% m-o-m to 1.44 million tons in Dec.
** Slow recovery in exports likely due to competition from Indonesian producers, delayed shipments to India as traders positioned for cut in Indian import duties
* Plantation companies may report weaker 4Q earnings y-o-y on lower prices
* CIMB maintains neutral rating on sector; Genting Plantations top pick