Malaysian export, import growth seen slowing in July

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KUALA LUMPUR (Sept 4): Malaysia's annual export growth in July likely slowed to 6.2 percent, a Reuters poll showed as electronic exports may have continued to lead growth but palm oil exports slowed.

If the poll is correct it would be a third consecutive month of slowing export growth. In June, exports slowed to 7.9 percent after a robust growth of 16.3 percent in May and 18.9 percent in April.

Imports are expected to rise 5.0 percent.

The median forecast of 11 economists polled showed that the projected trade surplus was 4.0 billion ringgit ($1.26 billion), slightly larger than June's surplus of 3.97 billion.

Forecasts for Malaysia's July exports, imports (percentage change from a year ago) and trade balance (billion ringgit):      

FORECASTS             Exports     Imports    Trade balance
(pct y/y)   (pct y/y)   (bln ringgit)
Median                  6.2         5.0           4.0
High                    11.7        12.4          4.3
Low                     3.7         2.0           2.5
June                    7.9         9.2           3.97
May                     16.3        11.9          5.72
No. of respondents       11          11            11
Affin                   8.0         6.3           4.0
AmBank                  6.2         5.4           3.5
BA Merrill Lynch        7.2         8.2           2.5
Credit Suisse           6.5         6.0           3.3
DBS                     4.3         1.9           4.3
HSBC                    11.8        12.4          2.8
ING                     5.0         3.0           4.16
Kenanga                 5.6         3.6           4.2
Maybank                 3.7         2.0           4.0
OCBC                    5.0         5.0           3.0
UOB                     6.6         5.0           4.0

(1 US dollar = 3.1760 Malaysian ringgit)