Thursday 28 Mar 2024
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KUALA LUMPUR (Dec 13): AmBank Group Research said Malaysia’s economic growth prospects for 4Q2018 may be slower.

AmBank group chief economist and head of research Dr. Anthony Dass said industrial production (IP) rose to a five months high, up 4.2% year-on-year (y/y) in October supported by the better performance from all the three sub-indices.

Dass, who is also adjunct professor in economics at University of New England, Sydney, Australia, said that interestingly, the mining output turnaround for the first time since May 2018 largely supported by crude oil and natural gas.

“Despite the turnaround in mining data, we remain cautious.

“Risk of potential disruption in supply from the Kebabangan gas field in Sabah is expected to persist up to mid-2019,” he said.

Dass said though October’s manufacturing IP number turned out to be favourable, the business conditions remains a challenge with the headline Nikkei’s Manufacturing Purchasing managers' Index (PMI) down to a six-month low to 48.2 in November.

He said the latest PMI data pointed to the sharpest fall in the health the goods-producing sector since May, adding that it extended the current period of decline to two months.

“We feel the growth prospects for 4Q2018 may be slower.

“Our preliminary estimate suggest the 4Q2018 GDP growth could come in around 4.0% - 4.2% y/y. If happens, it will be in line with our 4.6% projection for 2018,” he said.

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