KLCI to trend sideways, trade within 1,640-1,680 band

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KUALA LUMPUR (Dec 12): The FBM KLCI is expected to trend sideways next week within its 1,640-1680 trading band in line with the weaker close at global markets last Friday.

Stock markets worldwide tumbled on Friday, Brent crude oil prices fell to seven-year lows and China's yuan currency sank on risk aversion ahead of a widely anticipated U.S. interest rate increase next week and worries over economic growth, according to Reuters.

The benchmark U.S. S&P 500 sank nearly 2 percent, while crude prices plunged further on a persistent global oversupply. The International Energy Agency said it sees the glut worsening in 2016 as demand slows and OPEC shows no signs of slowing production as it fights for market share, it said.

AffinHwang IB vice president and head of retail research Datuk Dr Nazri Khan said that going forward, he expects the local market to trend sideways within its 1640 - 1680 trading band following the anticipation of Federal Reserve hikes in the upcoming 15th-16th December meeting and falling oil price but sentiment should be well supported by the impending stimulus in Europe and the increasingly solid USA economic picture.

He said that on the domestic front, the local Bursa sentiment should get a boost from two major positive macro data in Malaysia.

Nazri, who is also the president of the Malaysian Association of Technical Analysts, said that on the technical front, the local benchmark, the FBM KLCI had corrected 20.1% since July 2014, before scoring an impressive 14% rally between Aug 25 to Oct 19, led by two best performing sectors namely Technology & Industrial Product sector which benefited from the weaker ringgit.

He said the ringgit also made some good advance (3.8% w-o-w to 4.270) since November low as currency player took profits on USA dollar after the Fed’s Open Market Committee said that a December move made it more likely that the policy trajectory after lift-off could be shallow.

He said that as for this week, the FBM KLCI remained in the red for the second week, driven down by weak oil & gas stocks & plantation counters which are being weighed down by weak CPO price and tumbling crude oil prices to its fresh seven year low of USD39.73/barrel.

“Overall, despite the festive season of December and the traditionally bullish year end window dressing, we view that the FBM KLCI could possibly trade sideways between 1640 - 1680 bands due to USA Fed rate hike expectation before looking to retest its psychological level of 1,700 in the near-term.

“Sector wise, we see ample play on technology stocks which benefit strongly from the conclusion of TPPA, the biggest FTA in Malaysian history (representing a 40 per cent of global output and 25 per cent of global exports) and lay the foundation for bigger export for years to come.  

“Strategy wise, aggressive investors should long index futures on weakness while conservative traders should accumulate our Top 15 stocks in 2016 namely MY E.G. Services Bhd, Kossan Rubber Industries Bhd, Hartalega Holdings Bhd, Top Glove Corporation Bhd, Evergreen Fibreboard Bhd, Petronas Dagangan Bhd, IHH Healthcare Bhd, Cahya Mata Sarawak Bhd, Globetronics Technology Bhd, Inari Ametron Bhd, QL Resources Bhd, KPJ Healthcare Bhd, Time Dotcom Bhd, Hap Seng Consolidated Bhd and Westports Holdings Bhd,” he said.