(This article has been amended for accuracy)

KUALA LUMPUR (Jan 6): Health Minister Khairy Jamaluddin said the number of Covid-19 cases in Malaysia could rise to more than 30,000 per day by the end of March, if measures were not taken to control the spread of the Omicron variant of the virus, which include the temporary suspension of Umrah travels to Saudi Arabia and the revision of quarantine standard operating procedures.

"If the basic reproduction number (R-naught or R0) of Covid-19 infections increases to 1.2, daily Covid-19 cases will increase to 10,000 per day, and if R0 is 1.6, we will see an increase in daily cases to more than 30,000," Khairy cited the Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious and Removed (SEIR) model of daily observed and forecasts Covid-19 cases prepared by his Ministry.

The country's latest R0 data was 0.97, with Sabah having the highest R0 score at 1.03. It was followed by Perlis (1.01), Negeri Sembilan (0.99), Kelantan (0.99), Kedah (0.98), Penang (0.97), Labuan (0.97), Melaka (0.97), Johor (0.96), Putrajaya (0.96), Pahang (0.95), Perak (0.95), Selangor (0.94) and Kuala Lumpur (0.93).

The World Health Organization (WHO) had previously said that the Omicron variant poses a "very high" global risk and has spread rapidly, emerging in at least 128 countries since the highly mutated variant was first discovered in November last year.

According to WHO, there is growing evidence that the Omicron variant is affecting the upper respiratory tract, causing milder symptoms than earlier variants and leading to a "decoupling" between rising case rates and low death rates in some places, Reuters reported.

"The Omicron variant is less deadly compared to the Delta variant. But if the number of daily cases increases to more than 30,000, although most Covid-19 patients are category 1 and 2 (no symptoms and mild symptoms), hospitalisations will also increase," Khairy said at a press conference on Thursday.

Based on Oct 30, 2021 data, a total of 52,189 backlogs were recorded at Health Ministry facilities, including 47,828 surgical and 4,361 medical cases.

These are non-Covid-19 patients who need treatment at MoH facilities but whose treatment has been postponed because frontliners are struggling with Covid-19.

"The Covid-19 pandemic that has hit the world over the past two years has impacted health systems and services across the country. This pandemic has also impacted the treatment of cases that are not Covid-19-related, particularly elective surgeries, which include cancer. We had to postpone surgeries other than Covid-19 treatment.

"If we fail to contain the spread of Omicron, then [treatment of] this backlog of non-Covid-19 patients will be postponed again," Khairy added.

To date, Malaysia has detected a total of 245 Omicron cases. Of these, 233 were imported cases and the remaining 12 were locally transmitted.

"Based on the total number of reported Omicron cases, 157 cases or 64.08% involved Umrah pilgrims," Khairy said.

He said that Saudi Arabia is the largest source of imported Omicron cases at the moment. "If the Ministry of Health does not act on the data and postpone Umrah pilgrimages, we will not be able to stop the impending Omicron wave."