This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on July 19, 2021 - July 25, 2021

DON’T be obsessed with the high daily infections that are being reported. There is light on the horizon with vaccinations being administered in record numbers in the past one week.

Our initial calculation (see charts) — based on historical data points until July 12, and assuming from now, an average 400,000 doses are administered a day — is that by Aug 31,

13 million, or 40.2% of the population of 32.7 million, will be fully vaccinated (two doses). By Sept 30, we would have fully vaccinated (two doses) 60.4% of the total population.

But Malaysia’s vaccination rollout has speeded up very quickly since July 12, and last Thursday (July 16), it hit a record of 460,158 doses.

Of that, 304,807 were first doses while 155,351 were second doses. This means that up till July 16, 4.79 million people had received one dose of vaccine and 4.16 million (12.7%) had been fully vaccinated (two doses).

Based on the surge in daily doses, and confirmation that the vaccine supply will be very high in August, our updated projection is that Malaysia will be able to fully vaccinate 16 million people — 50% of the total population — by end-August, 70% by end-September and 80% by end-October.

This means that we will reach what is called the 80% threshold for herd immunity ahead of the original target of end-December.

This is a big boost to our efforts to bring the pandemic under control and allow us to return to some, if not total, normalcy in our social and economic life.

In fact, we can expect all the figures — daily infections, hospitalisations, ICU — to be better once 40% of the population are fully vaccinated by the end of August.

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