The Malaysian electorate has heading out to vote on an unprecedented Wednesday polling day. General elections set during (or ranging a time period over) weekends was the norm, from 1964 through 1990 (seven elections) and in 2004 to 2013 (three elections). While a weekday was set in the 1990s (Monday and Tuesday in 1995 and Monday in 1999), it was a long weekend situation.
Apart from the Wednesday (“Rabu” in Malay) voting, the Opposition has raised concern about other potential voting issues. Social chatter in WhatsApp in Klang Valley is full of warnings about getting a ballot paper with the official stamped mark. Here, those going out to vote early in the day in relate stories of longer waits and bigger numbers than GE13.
At a recent ceramah, Pakatan Harapan leader Tun Dr. Mahathir quipped that RABU stands for “rakyat akan buang UMNO” (the people will get rid of UMNO) and he asked voters to come out to vote, and to do so early. He has called on the leaders of the armed forces and police to allow their personnel “be given the freedom to choose.” In a somber warning, he urged them not to partake in any form of violence should a state of emergency be declared after the general election.
Analysts wonder if turnout could more likely be at or below the 76% level seen in the 2008 general election. In comparison, the highest ever voter turnout in Malaysian electoral history, which was 85% in the last election in 2013, saw the opposition coalition garner 51% of the popular vote, and Barisan Nasional (BN) 47%, with the rest to some independent candidates. At 1pm today, SPR estimates a 55% voter turnout, compared to 60% at the same time in 2013. There is concern that reticent Malay voters may not be showing up, along with apathetic young voters.
Key traffic segments
Exiting the Klang Valley
Traffic to exit the Klang Valley peaked early, before tapering off as voters headed North, East, and South. The highest increase in travel time was along the Puchong - Batu Caves route, where traffic peaked at 99% of usual at 3pm on May 7 and at 6pm on May 8. Travel times quickly fell below typical travel time, as the Klang Valley emptied out.
Looking at the North South Expressway (NSE) traffic conditions for May 7-9 travel:
- NKVE to Rawang, huge surge in traffic after 12pm on May 8, with a dip at 9pm (breaching +400% journey time).
- JB to Senai Toll, 14km, huge and sustained surge between 12pm - 12am the same day (above +400%).
- Slim River to Sungkai, up to +300% longer travel time than usual.
- From Sungkai to Tapah, long delays sustained.
Singapore-Johor
- From Boon Lay in Singapore to Senai Toll plaza, traffic was worst between 3pm and 11pm on May 8, at its peak, travel times were 117% longer than usual (after accounting for rush hour traffic), perhaps due to the volume of voters returning to vote.
- During the same 3pm to 11pm period, travel time between Johor Bahru and Bukit Tinggi rose to a peak of 92% above the usual, as voters return to the East coast states of Pahang, Terengganu, and Kelantan.
- Travel time from Yishun to JB Toll plaza almost doubled on May 8, as Malaysian voters from Singapore begin their journey across the Causeway.
Heading to Ipoh, Penang other West Coast towns
- Travel time from Petaling Jaya to the Penang 2nd Bridge began to climb after 12pm on May 8 and reached a peak of 36% at 10pm the same day. These above-average travel time remained consistent until the early hours of Wednesday morning, where it began tapering off at 5am. We received reports of voters taking almost 8 hours to drive from the Klang Valley to Penang, double the usual, and similar to Chinese New Year festive season traffic.
- Travel times to Ipoh was worst, with travel times peaking at 56% of a typical day; similar to Penang, the momentum of delays was maintained until the early hours of Wednesday morning.
Heading to the East Coast
- Eastbound travel times were similarly high but still below delay quantums observed in the NSE Northbound route; The Klang Valley-Kota Bharu route saw travel times increasing to a peak of 21% above typical, while Klang Valley to Kuala Terengganu travel time peaked at 37% above the usual. We have received reports that congestion continued along the East Coast Expressway well into Wednesday morning, and up to Wednesday afternoon.
Generally, the first spikes in travel time (travel time was almost +350% above the typical end-day rush hour) began at the end of the workday on May 7 until 8pm, perhaps due to some voters taking Tuesday off and making a quick exit from urban areas. This added to regular rush hour traffic and speeds returned to normal after 8pm.
Marginal seats (May 7 - 9)
JB marginal seats experienced longer than usual travel times just at the end of the work day on Tuesday: 130% for Pulai (being contested by Nur Jaslan), Tebrau 116%, Pasir Gudang, 83%, likely due to a combination of Malaysians returning home from Johor as well as voters travelling further north into Pahang, Selangor, and Negeri Sembilan.
Travel times going into and out of Permatang Pauh remained high (>40% of usual) from 3pm on Tuesday before tapering off at 2am on Wednesday.
Undi Traffic Dashboard
Traffic Situation on Major Routes for Outstation Voters
Traffic delays decreasing across expressways through Wednesday 2:30pm as Malaysians head to the polls. Exceptions include Singapore - Johor and beyond routes, where Johor-based voters are likely still on the road and traffic is 11% above typical.
Description: This summary provides insight into the traffic status for major long-distance routes for outstation voters and also the cross-Klang Valley situation. This describes when and how (journey time-wise) traffic builds up. For the time period described, the live (or current) journey time is compared to the typical (or normal) journey time and presented as a %. Source: Estimates from Google.
Average Traffic Situation By Coalition-Party Across Selected Hot & Marginal Seats
PAS marginal seat zones have seen an overall +2% in journey-time versus typical. Next up are BN marginals and hot seats.
Description: This summary provides insight into when and how (journey time-wise) traffic builds up for outstation voters going to selected marginal constituencies (won with a narrow <5% margin of victory in GE13) and hot seats contested by big name politicians. Marginal-hot seats combine both criteria. Note: Based on GE13 outcomes. GE14 has redelineation which will also have an impact. Traffic to/in Klang Valley seats are not reviewed as this study focuses on outstation voter moves. This description of journey times to and/or within constituencies comprises 2 or 3 routes each. For the time period shown, the live (or current) journey time is compared to the typical (or normal) journey time and presented as a %. The aggregate ratios are based on simple averages. Source: Estimates from Google.
Seats with High Traffic Activity
Big increases (over 30% above normal or typical) at Permatang Pauh, Kuala Krai, and Ketereh; all hot seats for PKR, BN, and PAS. Travel times slowly tapering down in other BN seats of Machang, Ayer Hitam, Tebrau, and Bentong.
Description: This summary describes when and how (journey time-wise) traffic builds up for outstation voters going to selected marginal constituencies (won with a narrow <5% margin of victory in GE13) and hot seats contested by big name politicians. Note: The marginal and hot seats for the key coalition-parties are ranked from highest traffic activity (journey time build-up) to lowest and the busiest seats are presented. This description of journey times to and/or within constituencies comprises 2 or 3 routes each. For the time period shown, the live (or current) journey time is compared to the typical (or normal) journey time and presented as a %. The aggregate ratios are based on simple averages. Source: Estimates from Google.
Key finding: Looking at about 200 routes across Peninsular Malaysia, the activity increase was highest for Selangor-Pahang at +111% (more than doubling) and Negeri Sembilan-Selangor plus Selangor routes at +21%. In the high teens of journey-time change were KL-Selangor, Singapore-Johor and Kelantan routes. This was led earlier, by traffic building up for Bentong, Tebrau and Raub.
This is the last analytics of Undi Traffic for the PRU/GE14 period. Analysis will follow once sufficient results data are available and should include comparison against Raya festive traffic. We hope that the data-set collected by Undi Traffic may shed some light on variations in turnout. No doubt, areas with through-traffic (in contrast to destination traffic) will be more challenging to decipher. Moreover, turnout among Malay zones may be affected by the long outstation trip as well as the much talked about reticent uncertainty and anger.
Khor Yu Leng is an independent geo-data economist, assisted by Jeamme Chia. This data study is brought to you in collaboration with The Edge.