KUALA LUMPUR (May 10): DAP’s newly elected Serdang MP, Ong Kian Ming, has predicted that BN is likely to lose the next general election if the voting trends seen in the GE13 carry through until then.

Ong, a political analyst, today presented a mathematical analysis of the GE13 results which showed that stronger Malay support for Pakatan Rakyat had contributed significantly to its 3.2% increase in popular vote.

“My primary message here is to debunk the statements made by (MCA president) Datuk Seri Dr Chua Soi Lek of a two-race system and (Prime Minister Datuk Seri) Najib (Razak)of a Chinese tsunami,” Ong told a media conference at the party’s headquarters this morning.

The DAP election strategist’s 11-point analysis showed that Pakatan’s support had increased in 11 out of 13 states including in the Malay majority areas of Perlis, Terengganu and Pahang.

Each of the three states comprise more than 70% of Malay voters, and Ong’s calculations showed that support for Pakatan rose 4.4% in Perlis, 3.7% in Terengganu and 3.8% in Pahang compared to 2008.

The biggest increase however was seen in Johor at 10.3% followed by Sarawak at 8.9%.

Ong then zeroed in on individual parliamentary seats and showed that Pakatan had enjoyed rising support in 23 mostly semi-urban and rural parliamentary seats comprising more than 50% of Malay voters.

The top three seats that recorded the highest increases since 2008 were Kangar (16.1%), Sekijang (15.6%) and Johor Baru (15%).

“Kangar is an 80.7% Malay seat,” Ong pointed out. “In Kepala Batas, which is a 76% Malay seat, Pakatan increased its support by 11.8%.”

“This could not have happened without higher support from Malay voters. The reason why little attention has been given to these seats is because although Pakatan made significant gains, it did not win these seats.”

Ong also highlighted eight Malay majority state seats in Selangor where Pakatan garnered a 5% increase in support including Sungai Besar (12.9%), Pandan (10.9%) and Sepang (9.8%).

He added that the four Selangor state seats where PAS scored first time victories  – Tanjong Sepat, Taman Templer, Dusun Tua and Paya Jeras – could not have been won based solely on Chinese support.

As for his own parliamentary seat, Ong produced evidence that younger Malay voters were backing Pakatan and DAP at higher rates compared to older Malay voters.

An analysis of Malay majority polling stations in the Bangi state seat showed vast difference between the support for DAP between the oldest and youngest polling streams of up to 23%.

“The support for DAP and Pakatan is clearly and significantly higher among younger Malay voters,” Ong noted. “This is a positive trend moving forward and debunks Chua’s two-race system statement.”

In Sarawak, Ong’s analysis indicated that BN experienced waning support of more than 10% in eight of the Dayak majority/plurality parliamentary seats although not enough to secure wins for Pakatan.

Of the seven Sabah Bumiputra parliamentary seats where BN support fell more than 10%, Pakatan only managed to win Penampang although it came close to winning Beaufort.

But Ong pointed out that Pakatan now held three parliamentary seats and 11 state seats in Sabah and could make further inroads if multiple corner fights are avoided in GE14.

He also said that the next general election would see BN on the defensive in 46 marginal seats compared to Pakatan’s 30 seats. Marginal seats are defined by a win of 55% or less.

“Also with the increase in percentage of younger voters who are less influenced by the mainstream media and more willing to vote across racial lines in support of Pakatan, it is increasingly clear that BN will likely lose power in GE13,” Ong stated.

“What may save BN is a grossly skewed and unfair delimitation exercise which is scheduled to start sometime this year and be completed before GE14.”

The delimitation exercise is conducted every 10 years and in 2003 it was carried out to increase the number of mixed seats, which Ong said was based on BN’s assumption that it would perform better in mixed seats.

“That proved to be true in 2004 but in 2008 many of these seats went to Pakatan,” he said.

“So BN, having control of the Election Commission, may try to change tactics in the next round and create more rural seats where it is strong.”

Ong said that the delimitation would likely not increase as many seats in Selangor where there are 10 seats with more than 100k voters.

“We hope that BN will not resort to these measures and since it requires a two-thirds majority to increase the number of seats, it has to work with Pakatan to come up with a delimitation exercise that is agreeable to both parties,” he concluded.