Friday 29 Mar 2024
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This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on March 15, 2021 - March 21, 2021

THERE is a correlation seen between mobility data for Malaysia tracked by Google and the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

Compiled by Google, the mobility data —which charts movement trends over time by geography — shows how visits and lengths of stay at different places change compared with a baseline. The baseline here refers to the median value for the corresponding day of the week during the five-week period from Jan 3 to Feb 6, 2020.

The decline in mobility seen in the first two quarters of the year mirrored GDP growth, or the lack of it. Malaysia’s GDP for the first quarter of 2020 (1Q2020) recorded a marginal 0.7% growth year on year, before plunging 17.1% in 2Q2020.

For example, during the Movement Control Order (MCO) 1.0 imposed nationwide from March 18 to May 3, data for the retail and recreation category — which tracks visits to places such as restaurants, shopping centres, theme parks and cinemas — saw the sharpest decline of 84% from the baseline on April 18, as dining in for restaurants was not allowed and shopping centres, with the exception of supermarkets, were shut.

On April 18, total daily Covid-19 cases were at 58, and the number of active cases in the country was at 2,115.

The grocery and pharmacy category, which tracks visits to places such as supermarkets, farmers markets and pharmacies, fared better, declining just 56% from the baseline on April 18 last year.

In line with that, retail growth compiled by Retail Group Malaysia showed a 17.5% decline in retail sales for department stores in the first quarter of 2020 (1Q2020), and slumped further, by 62.3%, in 2Q2020. Meanwhile, supermarkets and hypermarkets recorded a decline in sales of just 3% in 1Q2020 and 9.9% in 2Q2020. On an overall basis, total retail sales declined by 11.4% in 1Q2020 and 30.9% in 2Q2020.

People were also spending more time working from home than at the workplace, as mobility trends for places of work declined by 53% as at April 18 compared with the baseline. On the flipside, the mobility trends for places of residence — which tracks the number of hours spent at home — increased by 36% compared with the baseline.

The Conditional MCO, which was implemented from May 3 to June 9, saw a slight improvement in mobility, with mobility data for retail and recreation declining by 45% on June 1 compared with the baseline, and the grocery and pharmacy category declining by just 9%. More people had returned to their workplaces as well, with mobility trends for places of work declining by 29% compared with the baseline. People were also spending less time at home, as mobility changes for places of residence increased by just 18% from the baseline.

Meanwhile, the Recovery MCO from June 10 to Dec 31 last year saw most restrictions being lifted. In tandem with this, GDP data also fared better compared to 2Q2020, with 3Q2020 GDP declining by just 2.6% year on year and 4Q2020 GDP declining by 3.4% y-o-y.

A closer look at the mobility data shows a much more vibrant data set in the third and fourth quarters of 2020 compared with the first two quarters. For instance, on Sept 30 last year, the retail and recreation category recorded a decline of just 20% from the baseline, while the residential category increased by just 6%, indicating that people were spending less time at home.

On Sept 30, 2020, total daily Covid-19 cases stood at 89, and the number of active cases in the country was at 1,121.

The mobility data improved further on Dec 31 last year when the retail and recreation category recorded a decline of 14% from the baseline, while the residential category saw an increase of just 10%. However, Covid-19 was spreading fast at that time, with total daily and active cases on Dec 31 reaching 2,525 and 23,598 respectively.

The number of cases kept on climbing going into 2021, which led the government to impose the MCO 2.0 on Jan 13, but this time, on selected states, namely Selangor, the Federal Territories of Kuala Lumpur, Putrajaya and Labuan, Penang, Melaka, Johor and Sabah.

As many retailers were once again closed and dining in was not allowed, the retail and recreation category saw a decline of 54% from the baseline on Jan 24,while workplaces saw a drop of 32% as more people were working from home. Correspondingly, the residential category saw an increase of 23% compared with the baseline.

The MCO 2.0 was lifted on March 5 and replaced with the Conditional MCO and Recovery MCO in some states, which meant looser restrictions for businesses. The latest available mobility data on March 5 shows a decline of just 23% from the baseline for the retail and recreation category, a decline of just 18% for the workplaces category, and an increase of 12% for the residential category as more people returned to their workplaces.

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