A weekly round-up of tanker and dry bulk market (Dec 2, 2022)

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The Capesize market was in a “one step forward, two steps back” mode this week. The average of the five time charter routes eventually settled at US$12,598, a decline of US$775 week-on-week. Despite tightness in both basins, especially for December cancelling in the north Atlantic region, limited transatlantic or fronthaul cargoes were circulated in the market. Some brokers felt it was quieter compared with the same period last year. For Brazil loading, views on the “next done” largely differed due to a mixed spread. Vessels that can make mid-December dates in Brazil were paid higher, but again lacked cargo support. The relevant C3 route was priced at US$19.006 to end the week. In the Pacific, the west Australia to Qingdao trade remained active throughout the week, closing at US$8.98 per metric tonne on Friday and showing US$13,518 per day on the China-Japan transpacific round voyage.

Overall, it was a positive week for the Panamax market with the Atlantic routes the most prominent risers. This was largely led by solid grain and mineral demand from the usual loading origins. US$24,000 was the highlight, agreed by an 82,000-dwt delivery passing Gibraltar for a trip via US Gulf redelivery Singapore-Japan. In Asia, it was a very positional market with early dates ex NoPac commanding premium rates for the most part. However, it did return a week of minor gains.

US$15,000 was the highest reported rate on an 82,000-dwt delivery Korea for a NoPac round trip with sulphur, which explained the premium rate somewhat. A tough week for the coal rates ex Indonesia with smaller/older units discounting. However, we end the week on a slightly firmer footing with much of the nearby tonnage covered, coupled with some much-needed Australia demand. Some limited period activity included an 85,000-dwt delivery Japan achieving a rate of US$15,500 for a one-year period.

A rather uninspiring week for the sector with no significant movements. The Atlantic generally was seen as rather positional, certainly from key areas such as the US Gulf, while the South Atlantic lacked fresh impetus. From Asia, a more balanced week was seen with no clear direction. At the start, there were good volumes of fresh enquiry in the south, but as the week closed, this had abated. From the north, there were better levels of enquiry from NoPac and talk of a greater amount of backhaul cargo, but again, rates generally remained flat.

Period activity was limited but a 63,000-dwt open China was heard to have fixed a short period at US$11,500. From the Atlantic, a 63,000-dwt fixed from the US Gulf for a trip to Turkey at US$21,500. Further south, a 57,000-dwt fixed delivery Recalada for a trip to Morocco at US$20,000. From Asia, a 53,000-dwt open South China fixed via Indonesia to China at US$7,000.

A week encapsulated by a lack of activity saw the BHSI continue to slowly fall. East Coast South America stood out as one of the more active sectors and a 35,000-dwt fixed delivery Upriver Plate for a trip to Tunisia with an intended cargo of grains at US$26,000. A 38,000-dwt fixed from Vila Do Conde to Norway with an intended cargo of Alumina at US$20,000. A 33,000-dwt open in Itjaja was fixed via Santos to the Continent at a rate rumoured to be in the low US$20,000 — but some thought it was lower. Asia was described as balanced by sources for the majority of the week, but had shown some signs of possible improvements going forward. A Large handy open in CJK was rumoured to have been fixed earlier in the week for a trip via Australia to China at US$9,000. And, as the week closed, a 38,000-dwt was rumoured to have seen US$12,500 for short period.

The Atlantic front and backhaul has been active with TC2 Cont-USAC 37,000 CPP rising over WS24 in the week to close at WS404.17 (a TCE Round trip rate of US$50,006). The TC14 fell by around half the rise to finish at WS263.33 (a minor fall in TCE Earnings to US$28,296 per day round trip). Elsewhere in the Atlantic, sentiment has been muted, with falls across TC18 and TC21 routes.

In Europe, both TC6 and TC9 saw marginal gains, with a jump at the beginning of last week on TC6. There was a high of WS435, eventually settling at WS434.69 (a TCE earning per day round trip of US$81,564). TC9 has remained pretty flat throughout the week, with few WS points gained to finish at WS600 (a TCE daily earning of US$81,358 round trip).

The Middle East clean market has been flat. TC1 lost some points to WS293.13 (a TCE of US$68,580 per day). With a similar run on the LR2 going west, TC20 faced a quarter of a million drop to US$6,185,714 (a TCE of US$79,503 per day).

TC15 Skikda-Japan on the LR2s has been pretty positive, with a rise of US$358,333 to close at US$5,275,000 for the week (giving a TCE per day round trip earning of US$35,538).

The VLCC market continued its downward spiral this week, with the volume of fixture activity much reduced from previous weeks. 270,000mt Middle East Gulf to China is now valued 22 points lower than a week ago at WS86 (a daily TCE round trip of US$50,600), while the 280,000mt Middle East Gulf to US Gulf (via the Cape/Cape routing) trip is being assessed 10 points down at a little over WS60.

In the Atlantic region, the rate for 260,000mt from West Africa to China similarly dropped 22 points to a fraction above WS87 (a round trip TCE of US$53,100 per day) and 270,000mt US Gulf/China has fallen by US$1.875 million to US$12,612,500 (US$67,400 per day round trip TCE).

The Suezmax market also fell back down this week with rates for 135,000mt CPC/Augusta dropping 39 points to just below WS280 (a TCE of US$143,200 per day). For the 130,000mt voyage Nigeria to Rotterdam trip, rates tumbled 25 points to WS186.5 (about US$71,900 per day round trip TCE). The 140,000mt Basrah/Lavera market eased 13.75 points — albeit barely breaking the WS100 barrier.

The European Aframax market became another victim of reduced fixture activity and a tonnage build-up, resulting in a lower sentiment. The 80,000mt Hound Point/Wilhelmshaven route slipped a meagre eight points to WS315 (a round-trip daily TCE of about US$143,000). In the Mediterranean, which suffered heavy rate reductions, the 80,000mt Ceyhan/Lavera market dropped 71 points to WS357, although still showed a healthy daily round-trip TCE of US$128,300.

The Stateside Aframax market saw significant rate corrections as a result of the four day Thanksgiving holiday at the end of last week. This allowed charterers room to take stock of their situation, while the position list re-populates. For the 70,000mt East Coast Mexico/US Gulf route, rates plummeted 189 points from recent heady highs to WS490 (US$147,400 per day round-trip TCE). Similarly, the 70,000mt Covenas/US Gulf voyage had 165 points taken out of the market assessment to WS458 (a daily round-trip TCE of about US$125,100). For the longer-haul 70,000mt US Gulf/Rotterdam voyage, rates were reduced by 65 points to
WS328.5 (US$78,600 per day round-trip TCE).

Another week with rates softening on the spot. The delays mentioned last week concerning Freeports reopening has had significant ramifications on the availability of spot tonnage. In a change of pace from earlier in the year, whereby spot requirement were high but tonnage was low, the lack of available cargoes and charterers reassessing the bearish sentiment has meant that levels have fallen yet again. Levels have fallen around 50% of their year highs to current levels.

Winter is coming and with forecasts in parts of Europe suggesting a very chilly period is enroute it remains to be seen if this will impact spot pricing.

Period remains active with 2023 seeing appetite still for the first quarter. Levels given for a 174k two-stroke vsl with 0.085% boil off are US$219,000 for 12 months and US$181,250 for three years.

The LPG market has changed pace again with further rises on all three Baltic routes. The highs that saw slight corrections in the previous week have again been broken. A busy MEG market, supplemented by a strong Indian presence, has keep rates on firm footing. For BLPG1, a rise of just under US$1.5 saw the week close at US$140.286. A vessel fixed for Yanbu-East had an option to discharge into India at US$141, with a round trip to China at US$137. While premiums have been paid for non-Baltic routes, there are cargoes to cover, so sentiment shall remain bullish.

Panama has remained the cause of concern for many, with delays ramping up. Slots at auction are going at big premiums and focus has been on tonnage coming via the Suez/Cape to fill the void. BLPG3 Houston-Chiba, gained US$3 over the week to finish at US$204.429, with no signs of abating. But by far, the biggest gain was made for vessels going Houston-Flushing, with nearly US$14 over the week. Reports of a vessel confirmed for mid-Jan dates had options for both East and West at US$200 and US$125 respectively, justified the week’s closing at US$126.4.

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