Thursday 28 Mar 2024
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This article first appeared in Forum, The Edge Malaysia Weekly on October 17, 2022 - October 23, 2022

The 15th general election (GE15) is shaping up to be different from all previous national elections.

For the first time, several state governments will not dissolve their state assemblies for simultaneous national and state polling during the GE. At the time of writing, Selangor and Negeri Sembilan will join Sabah, Sarawak, Melaka and Johor in not dissolving their state assemblies. Penang and even Perak may join the list.

There are also no overriding national issues that will be the focal point for campaigning. In GE14, held in May 2018, the central issue was the blatant abuse of funds at 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB) by then prime minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak and his accomplices.

Now, Najib is in jail and still faces several more charges related to 1MDB.

The recent littoral combat ship (LCS) fiasco was threatening to become a national issue but Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob’s government, having learnt from the experience with 1MDB, made public all of the reports on the extent of mismanagement of the project. Even the explosive external auditor’s report on the LCS project, where almost RM6 billion of the RM9.1 billion project was already disbursed, was declassified.

Also, unlike the 1MDB fiasco where money raised was siphoned out without anything tangible to show, the badly managed LCS project had several incomplete ships and spare parts worth close to RM2 billion that was paraded before journalists and parliamentarians.

Another of the many firsts at the upcoming GE15 is that not a single coalition will go into the battle for votes with the benefit of having an overwhelming majority in terms of power. Since 2018, the coalition of parties controlling Putrajaya have changed three times.

From a Pakatan Harapan coalition government, it became a Perikatan Nasional-Barisan Nasional coalition government in February 2020. Less than 18 months later, it became a Barisan Nasional (BN) government with cooperation from Perikatan Nasional (PN).

In GE15, BN and PN will fight for Malay votes as opposing coalitions.

And finally, this GE may once again go down in history for having the oldest candidate stand for a parliamentary seat if former prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad contests again in Langkawi.

In previous GEs, the debates between the government and opposition parties on burning issues had always been a strong rallying point for their respective supporters.

Take the 1990 GE, when the country faced a constitutional crisis and Umno was split following the fight for the party presidency between Mahathir and Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah at the 1987 party elections. Tengku Razaleigh formed an alliance with Malay-based political parties called Angkatan Perpaduan Ummah (APU).

In the 1990 GE, APU swept Kelantan and made inroads into Terengganu. It was the first time that Umno did not win even a single state seat in Kelantan, where Tengku Razaleigh’s Semangat 46 and PAS dominated the scene. It also saw the rise of PAS under moderate leaders such as Ustaz Fadzil Mohamed Noor and Datuk Nik Aziz Nik Mat.

The 1999 GE saw the birth of the Reformasi movement under Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim. In the previous year, Mahathir sacked Anwar from Umno and put him in jail, seriously dividing the electorate. PAS took control of both Kelantan and Terengganu. That GE marked the slide of Mahathir’s support and the rise of PAS as a dominant alternative Malay party.

Mahathir stepped down as prime minister in 2003, paving the way for Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, who led BN to a convincing victory in the 2004 GE. Abdullah promised reforms, which did not come about as expected. Since then, it has been a downhill slope for BN.

In the 2008 GE, BN lost its two-thirds majority in parliament for the first time. And it finally became an opposition party in 2018.

The 2018 GE saw the return of the Mahathir-Anwar partnership, who joined forces against a weakened BN under Najib. The opposition’s strategy to stand under a single flag proved to be the master stroke.

Mahathir was popular wherever he went then. Although polling was held on a Wednesday, it did not deter voters, who staged a huge turnout of 82% — the highest in recent years.

This time around, the usual buzz around a GE has been conspicuously missing so far.

When the prime minister announced that parliament was dissolved — just three days after Budget 2023 was unveiled — there was no surprise. The opposition parties are harping on the timing of the GE, taking into consideration that the current term of the government was only supposed to end in July next year, as well as the possibility that floods may occur during the polling period.

However, the prime minister has the prerogative to advise the Yang di-Pertuan Agong on the dissolution of parliament and he exercised it.

The opposition parties, particularly Pakatan Harapan, are hoping for a large turnout during the polls. So far, the turnout has been dwindling if one were to look at the Melaka and Johor state elections. The turnout was 65% at the Melaka state election and 55% at the Johor polls.

Historically, the voter turnout at the GE has been more than 72%, except for 1995 and 1999 when it dipped below 70%. The last two GEs saw a voter turnout of more than 82%. The opposition parties feel that a larger voter turnout will favour them.

In reality, that is not necessarily the case.

Some 5.8 million new voters will be added to the existing pool of 15.8 million. The voting age is 18 years and above, unlike 21 years and above in previous elections.

A crucial factor in this GE is the battle for the hearts and minds of Malay voters. There are two dominant Malay-based coalitions — BN and PN. The third is PH, which is lagging behind in the fight to win the support of Malay voters.

So, whether a higher turnout will help the opposition, which relies on non-Malay voters, is debatable.

With no big issues to excite voters, this GE is certainly a far cry from previous national elections. Bread and butter issues may hold sway, as the economy is not doing well, with the local currency depreciating against the US dollar. But then, so are the currencies of the rest of the world.

Sentiments towards casting votes have been generally poor so far, with the upcoming election turning out to be a listless affair compared with previous GEs.

The danger is that people could take for granted the privilege of voting and not exercise their right to do so. This could upset the form book on the likely election outcome.


M Shanmugam is a contributing editor at The Edge

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