Oil mixed on tighter US outlook, while US-China trade spat weighs

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SINGAPORE (Aug 21): Oil prices were mixed on Tuesday, with US fuel markets seen to be tightening while the Sino-US trade dispute dragged on international crude contracts.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for September delivery were up 27 cents, or 0.4%, at 0306 GMT, at US$66.70 per barrel. The contract expires on Tuesday.

The more active October futures were up 7 cents, or 0.1%, to US$65.49 a barrel.

Traders said US markets were lifted by a tightening outlook for fuel markets in the coming months.

Inventories in the United States for refined products such as diesel and heating oil for this time of year are at their lowest in four years.

This is occurring just ahead of the peak demand period for these fuels, with diesel needed for tractors to harvest crops and the arrival of colder weather during the Northern Hemisphere autumn raising consumption of heating oil.

Outside the United States, Brent crude oil futures were somewhat weaker, trading at US$72.18 per barrel, down 3 cents from their last close.

This followed the United States offering on Monday 11 million barrels of crude from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) for delivery from Oct 1 to Nov 30.

The released oil could offset expected supply shortfalls from US sanctions against Iran, which will target its oil industry from November.

Because of the sanctions, French bank BNP Paribas said it expected oil production from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), of which Iran is a member, to fall from an average of 32.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2018 to 31.7 million bpd in 2019.

Still, traders said overall market sentiment was cautious because of concerns over the demand outlook amid the trade dispute between the United States and China.

A Chinese trade delegation is due in Washington this week to resolve the dispute, but US President Donald Trump told Reuters in an interview on Monday he does not expect much progress, and that resolving the trade dispute with China will "take time."


The impact of the Iran sanctions is not yet clear.

China has indicated that it will continue to buy Iranian oil despite the US sanctions.

The Iran supply cut may also be more than compensated for by production increases outside OPEC.

BNP Paribas said non-OPEC output would likely grow by 2 million bpd in 2018 and by 1.9 million bpd next year.

"Depending on when pipeline infrastructure constraints are lifted in the US, non-OPEC supply growth by the end of 2019 may prove higher than currently assumed," the bank said.

The search for new oil has increased globally in the last two years, with the worldwide rig count rising from 1,013 at the end of July 2016 to 1,664 in August 2018, according to energy services firm Baker Hughes.

The biggest increase was in North America, where the rig count shot up from 491 to 1,057 in the last two years.

How prices develop will also depend on demand.

"We see global oil demand growing by 1.4 million barrels per day in both 2018 and 2019," BNP Paribas said, implying that global markets are likely to remain sufficiently supplied.